We're surprisingly Meh on Russian presence there. More likely Iran. Or a flare-up from the Hezbollah presence in the tri-border region and (more scary IMO) their ties to the discontent indigenous groups in the remote Guajira area of the COL-VEN border and Margarita island. Maybe a "USS Cole"-style strike on our facilities in Curacao.
If Chavez feels endangered ahead of the 2012 presidential race, he'll provoke a conflict, either internal or external with Colombia, then blame the US and more or less cancel elections and declare martial law. That's what the militias are for. Morales is doing the same thing in Bolivia.
