Author Topic: -4.5  (Read 2937 times)

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Offline steve dave

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-4.5
« on: February 05, 2010, 09:15:31 PM »
 :ohno:


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Offline Cire

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2010, 09:16:50 PM »
scary.  They have 2 legit nba prospects.


Offline steve dave

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2010, 09:17:21 PM »
scary.  They have 2 legit nba prospects.



I know, we can easily lose  :runaway:

Offline Cire

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2010, 09:18:06 PM »
Magic!

Offline cas4ksu

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2010, 09:20:46 PM »
i would feel safe here. jmo though.

Offline Cire

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2010, 09:28:27 PM »
If Kelly shows up and plays some D I'm not worried. Don't like relying on kelly though.

Offline steve dave

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2010, 09:29:07 PM »
Iowa State hosts Kansas State in Big 12 men's basketball Saturday afternoon. The Cyclones are 13-9/2-5 coming in while the Wildcats are 18-4/5-3. The most complete, detailed and educated analysis of ISU games anywhere on the web are right here at CycloneReport.com. Here's The Ultimate Preview for ISU vs. KSU.


Inside the Arc: Iowa State Offense vs. Kansas State Defense

   
Iowa State is shooting 49.4 percent from two-point range on the season. And the Cyclones were right about there the last time out, going 19-for-40 in the Wednesday night loss at Baylor. ISU scored 28 points in the paint, meaning it sank just five mid-range field goals all game long. Kansas State is not a great defensive team inside the arc, allowing opponents to hit 45.1 percent of their two-point attempts. Decent but certainly not great, very comparable to Iowa State in fact (see next segment). Justin Hamilton's offensive game has improved in the post, but that's been negated to a decline in Scott Christopherson's mid-range game. Illness (mono) has slowed and weakened him as a threat off the dribble. Advantage: Slight Kansas State


Inside the Arc: Iowa State Defense vs. Kansas State Offense

   
The Cyclones are allowing opponents to shoot 44.5 percent from two-point range. That's a good but not great defensive percentage inside the arc. It means you'll probably make out okay against a lesser foe while losing the battle against a team with good athleticism. Like K-State. The Wildcat finishers lack polish but it's a gritty and tough team that figures out different wayxs to score more than it figures out different ways not to. For the year, Kansas State is making nearly 51 percent of its shots from two-point range and its offense will have the edge inside the arc at ISU. Advantage: Slight Kansas State


Outside the Arc: Iowa State Offense vs. Kansas State Defense

   
Not all three-point shots are created equal. Iowa State's three-point percentage has declined in the past couple of outings because it has been taking poor three-point shots. The last time ISU used good judgment from distance, it went 10-for-19 from behind the stripe. In a win vs. Colorado and a loss vs. Baylor, the Cyclones were way too quick to take three-pointers that didn't come within the offense. It's laziness and impatience. On the year, Iowa State is a 41.1 percent three-point shooting team and it has to make this a cornerstone of the offense, not only in number of threes attempted but also in being smart basketball players and not jacking up outside shots for lack of desire to do anything else. Kansas State is a pretty good perimeter defense team at 32.9 percent allowed, so this isn't a game where ISU can sell out and really try to do damage from behind the arc. But it has to be efficient and that means taking the right threes that come from running the offense. Advantage: Slight Iowa State


Outside the Arc: Iowa State Defense vs. Kansas State Offense

   
Iowa State's season long three-point field percentage allowed remains above average at 34.8. Contrary to perception, recent opponents have not been shooting a high percentage from the perimeter. Colorado was 9-of-26 and Baylor was 9-of-23. But those opponents made a commitment to shoot over 20 threes in the game, understanding how the math works when it comes to scoring by three. K-State only shoot 35.9 percent from three-point range and it also doesn't take that many: 18.5 per game. Still, that's about 1 ½ more per game than an ISU team that shoots it quite a bit better. The Cyclones are better defending the three than Kansas State is making it, so ISU should win this phase. Advantage: Slight Iowa State


On the Boards: Iowa State Rebounding vs. Kansas State Rebounding

   
After being +3 on the boards at the half at Baylor, the Cyclones were really pulverized in the second half. The Bears basically decided to get after it and out-rebounded ISU by +13 in the final 20 minutes alone at Waco. Baylor claimed a whopping 43.7 percent of the rebounds on its offensive end, just two shy of being 50/50. That is absolute ownership of the offensive glass. ISU may have gotten a false sense of accomplishment the game before against a Colorado team that strongly de-emphasizes offensive rebounding for getting back to take away transition. Kansas State is ruthless on the offensive boards and on the season has won 42.3 percent of available boards on its offensive end. That is staggering and doesn't bode well for an ISU defensive rebounding effort that has been just a bit above average on the year (68.1 percent). On ISU's offensive end, it's a standoff as the Cyclones are as typical getting offensive boards (33.4%) as K-State is preventing them (66.3%). Advantage: Moderate Kansas State


At the Line: Iowa State Free Throw Shooting vs. Kansas State Free Throw Shooting

   
Neither team is good at the free throw line. Iowa State is shooting 63.1 percent on the season while Kansas State is at 65.4. After a good night at the line vs. Colorado, ISU reverted a bit at Baylor but was still above its season average (10-of-15, 66.7%). Given that the game is in Ames with a friendly crowd and familiar shooting background, that can only help ISU. But the numbers don't like and K-State is a better free throw shooting team coming in, albeit not by much. Advantage: Slight Kansas State


Three Key Stats: Iowa State A/TO, Steals & Blocks vs. Kansas State A/TO, Steals & Blocks

   
Strangely enough, Iowa State actually wins two of the three key stat categories. The Cyclones are +26 on assists-to-turnovers while KSU is -8. And ISU is +46 on blocked shots while Kansas State, also good in this area, is at +35. ISU is -50 for steals while the Wildcats are less poor at -8. It just goes to show what being tough and scrappy will do for a team as K-State has perfected winning ugly. There are very, very few teams residing in anyone's top 25 that are in the red on both A/TO and steals. It's almost unheard of. Yet there is KSU at 18-4. But we're all about the numbers in breaking down a game and the numbers favor I-State here. Advantage: Slight Iowa State

Offline steve dave

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2010, 09:29:24 PM »
 :runaway:

Offline mcmwcat

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2010, 10:00:16 PM »
moderate edge on the boards  :jerk:

Offline Pete

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2010, 10:02:12 PM »
Hey, whoever is being guarded by Brackins....drive to the hole, HARD, every single time you get the ball!

Offline kso_FWN

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2010, 06:49:55 AM »
Solid breakdown, but amazing to use those stats and not bring up FT rate in the FT discussion.  Its kind of a big deal.  I get annoyed when people only look at FT%-age.

Offline chum1

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2010, 07:02:03 AM »
It doesn't matter because after the KU loss we decided that we weren't really trying to win the conference in the first place.  W/W situation here.

Offline sys

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2010, 07:20:35 AM »
Solid breakdown, but amazing to use those stats and not bring up FT rate in the FT discussion.  Its kind of a big deal.  I get annoyed when people only look at FT%-age.

kstate #1 in ft drawn, isu #4 in ft against  ; kstate #334 in ft against, isu #166 in ft drawn.  isu should shoot substantially more ft than kstate.


the ft subplot should be interesting; isu basically refuses to foul, kstate all but forces the defense to foul.


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Offline POWL

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2010, 07:45:53 AM »
Hey, whoever is being guarded by Brackins....drive to the hole, HARD, every single time you get the ball!
not sexual ............ :dunno:
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Offline EllToPay

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2010, 10:53:05 AM »
 :ohno:  :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno: :ohno:

Offline felix rex

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2010, 11:05:37 AM »
It doesn't matter because after the KU loss we decided that we weren't really trying to win the conference in the first place.  W/W situation here.

lol

excellent point.

Can we just fast forward to the tourney or what?
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Offline j-von

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2010, 11:27:27 AM »
It has moved to 6 / 6.5   :shy:

Offline SleepFighter

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2010, 03:59:26 PM »
I miss hanging out with gamblers. Prolly lots of yelling and stuff at the end of the game.

Offline mcmwcat

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2010, 04:03:47 PM »
I miss hanging out with gamblers. Prolly lots of yelling and stuff at the end of the game.

gamblers forget about SLTH methodology of making score look closer than the game actually was. 

Offline mcmwcat

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Re: -4.5
« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2010, 04:39:23 PM »
Solid breakdown, but amazing to use those stats and not bring up FT rate in the FT discussion.  Its kind of a big deal.  I get annoyed when people only look at FT%-age.

good pt.  our FTR wasn't great today.  desperation fouls gave our # a boost.

i was way off ?ing that guys insight on the rebounding matchup  :blank: