If Bridgewater falls as far as the 23rd pick, the Chiefs had better pick him up.
I'd bet Bridgewater falls out of the first round. I think Bridgewater, Manziel, Bortles, Garoppolo, Savage, Carr, Mettenberger, McCarron, Boyd, and Murray are all better prospects than any QB last year. My guess is that Bridgewater falls out of the first and then a couple of teams position themselves to snag him early in day 2. If I were the Texans, I take Clowney with pick #1 and the best QB available with my second rounder.
My guess as to what happens: Chiefs trade back and end up with late first and late second round picks. They end up with a QB that isn't Manziel, Bortles, or Bridgewater.
I would rather them pick an offensive weapon (WR or Amaro) than a QB in round 1, but if they don't plan on resigning Smith and get Bridgewater in the first they can open up a lot of cap space in 2015 with a starting QB on the rookie wage scale.