I want to hear about fireworks
Almost zero effect on fireworks this year. If the tariffs stick around until next year, wholesale prices will double.
There are a lot of fireworks that have been produced that importers have declined to have shipped to the US and they are just sitting in containers in China. If the tariffs are not removed, I don't see many fireworks needing to be imported and, if that happens, the factories in China are going to be hurting.
Are those next year's fireworks sitting in containers? What happens to the wholesalers and retailers if the tariffs aren't dropped? Do they go under, import a lot less, raise prices, or all of the above? What's kind of the drop dead date before things get really serious for the supply chain if the tariffs aren't dropped?
I would say they are fireworks for sales after the July 4th season and next year. There are states (Kansas is now one of them) that have year-round sales and there are states that allow sales at New Year's.
If the tariffs are not dropped, prices will increase most definitely. The price increases we are looking at are going to reduce demand substantially, in my opinion, which will lead to reduced sales and imports. The drop in the quantity of sales will outpace the increase in price and lead to lower revenue. We are at our limit currently on pricing for fireworks and any further increases is going to hammer demand. Prices are quite elevated compared to 2019 and it is much more than just the effects of inflation.
We (brothers and myself) are not dependent on fireworks for our livelihood. It is a side hustle/hobby for us, so we can just ride out these bad times and be alright. It won't be great, but I could see us being better off on the other side when tariffs are dropped if it causes other fireworks stands to drop out of the market.
If you are dependent on fireworks for your livelihood, then I would be looking at ways to generate some income in case the tariffs are not dropped. If the tariffs stick around, 2026 will not be pretty for fireworks. There are a lot of companies, especially small to medium size importers, that are dependent on current sales to pay off previous orders. I could see a lot of them getting wiped out. It's similar to how Social Security is set up where if there was no current Social Security taxes, there would be no money to pay previously promised benefits.
A drop dead date for the 2026 season would probably be January 1. The good news is that there are a lot of fireworks already produced. The difficulty will be getting them all shipped over here. The transit time isn't too long, but there are limits on the number of fireworks containers that can be on any one ship. If the tariffs are removed, everyone is going to be trying to ship product here at the same time and it will create a huge bottleneck.
I know every industry thinks that their industry is special and shouldn't be subject to tariffs, but I think it is especially true for fireworks. We are never going to produce fireworks in the US. As I stated earlier, the public won't stand for the explosions and deaths that result. Additionally, China is the only place for us to get fireworks. There are other countries that produce fireworks, but they are unsafe, terrible or both. One wholesaler we buy from has started a line that is Made in Brazil, but the cakes from there suck. There is nothing to gain by putting tariffs on fireworks, except to raise prices for US consumers.
It is ironic, but not really with this president, that Trump claims to be all about the US and patriotism, but he is going to make is nearly impossible to celebrate the 4th of July in the way we traditionally have celebrated it. Moreover, 2026 is the 250th birthday of our country and Trump is poised to crap all over it.
