Countdown to 2032 Asteroid 2024 YR4

[chum1]

1% chance 

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/01/29/nasa-shares-observations-of-recently-identified-near-earth-asteroid/

[steve dave]

it's fine

[chum1]

                     

UPDATE: Up to 2.3% chance

                     

[chum1]

"Impact Risk Corridor"

[Pete]

"Impact Risk Corridor"

WHEW!

[Pete]

this could be a shot in the arm to the India space agency! They have a pretty good one.

[steve dave]

it's fine

[Pete]

We got a bit before things get weird.

NASA and other global space agencies, such as ESA, JAXA, and CNSA, assess asteroid impact probabilities based on a risk scale, primarily the Torino Scale and Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale. The exact probability threshold at which they take direct action depends on various factors, including the asteroid’s size, time until impact, and potential damage.

Typical Response Thresholds
   1.   Below 1% (0.01 to 1%)
   •   Routine tracking and monitoring by agencies like NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC).
   •   If the asteroid is large (over 100 meters in diameter) and impact is projected within the next century, it remains on watchlists.
   2.   1% to 10%
   •   Heightened monitoring and detailed simulations of impact scenarios.
   •   Astronomers work to refine orbital calculations with additional observations.
   •   If impact is projected within a few decades, early discussions about mitigation (such as kinetic impactors or gravity tractors) begin.
   3.   Above 10%
   •   Formal mission planning begins.
   •   Government agencies and space programs discuss deflection strategies, such as sending a spacecraft to nudge the asteroid (e.g., DART-style kinetic impactor) or using a nuclear device if necessary.
   •   Emergency response plans for potential impact sites are developed.
   4.   Near 100% (Certain impact)
   •   If detected years in advance, space agencies would execute an active deflection mission.
   •   If detected with little time remaining (months or less), governments focus on disaster preparedness, evacuations, and impact mitigation strategies.

Historical Reference: NASA’s DART Mission

The DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission in 2022 successfully altered the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos, demonstrating kinetic impactor technology as a viable planetary defense method. While Dimorphos was not a threat, this mission validated that space agencies are prepared to act if needed.

[Stevesie60]

NASA? I thought we ditched those losers so we could fund Space X?

[Pete]

NASA? I thought we ditched those losers so we could fund Space X?

Well, before there was SpaceX, there was the United launch alliance, which is mostly Boeing and a little bit of Lockheed Martin and a few other others.

And for as long as you thought it was just NASA it was actually those guys in the background building everything and they’ve made a rough ridin' fortune, but they’ve lost a lot of business to SpaceX and soon to blue origin and rocket lab. All of those are doing the job at a of fraction of the cost of united launch alliance.

[CNS]

Don’t Look Up, asteroid jobs, etc.

[cfbandyman]

it's fine

Yup, watched a good video on it, pretty low in the worry index

[bucket]

Opportunity to throw the greatest party the world ever saw

[mocat]

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/s/LIRCQP8J2A

[CNS]

Lunar distance of 3.75. 

We need to rename that rock something woke to get the right attention.

[mocat]

Lunar distance of 3.75. 

We need to rename that rock something woke to get the right attention.

asteroid YR4 aka chili beans

[kstate4life]

How much damage does a 300ft asteroid cause, let's say, if it lands in the ocean.

[bucket]

How much damage does a 300ft asteroid cause, let's say, if it lands in the ocean.

[pissclams]

maybe this is the end that we all hoped for

[CNS]

Lands at halftime of the big 12 conference championship game with us up by 7.

[cfbandyman]

Lands at halftime of the big 12 conference championship game with us up by 7.

It's supposed to be December 22nd per that reddit thread. So more like us in the first round of the playoffs as an undefeated juggernaut.

[Brock Landers]

Lands at halftime of the big 12 conference championship game with us up by 7.

It's supposed to be December 22nd per that reddit thread. So more like us in the first round of the playoffs as an undefeated juggernaut.

Looks like the Cats need to win the Natty the year before just to be on the safe side.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Hopefully we get some sweet footage of when this thing lands.

[steve dave]

Hopefully we get some sweet footage of when this thing lands.

it'll be normal footage

[star seed 7]

I dare that fuckin asteroid to even try. Pussy