Author Topic: 2022 midterm elections  (Read 19641 times)

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Offline Spracne

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #450 on: November 10, 2022, 09:35:55 AM »
In conclusion people like steve dave are GROSSLY UNDERREPRESENTED IN THESE SHITTY POLLS!


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This is a thing I've always wondered about. Are these all landline calls? Because no one has ever called me up to ask my opinion (even though that would annoy me), and I've been registered to vote for a long time. (But I don't have a landline.)

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #451 on: November 10, 2022, 09:48:16 AM »
In conclusion people like steve dave are GROSSLY UNDERREPRESENTED IN THESE SHITTY POLLS!


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This is a thing I've always wondered about. Are these all landline calls? Because no one has ever called me up to ask my opinion (even though that would annoy me), and I've been registered to vote for a long time. (But I don't have a landline.)

No, unfortunately they call and text cell phones. I don't know how this happened but I somehow got on an Alaska republican list, along with a Derek Schmidt list. I, no exaggeration, got to the point where I was getting up to 5 calls and 3 texts a day from Alaskan pollsters and republican robo calls and texts. Marking them as spam doesn't help because they call and text from different numbers every time.

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #452 on: November 10, 2022, 10:17:53 AM »
As I understand it there is also some baked in bias by virtue of the fact that people willing to answer the phone or click the link in a text message to fill out a survey tend to feel more strongly about political stuff and aren’t necessarily a reliable cross section of the average voter

Offline Spracne

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #453 on: November 10, 2022, 10:22:33 AM »
You can bet your ass I'm not clicking a link from a random text message.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #454 on: November 10, 2022, 10:26:36 AM »
In conclusion people like steve dave are GROSSLY UNDERREPRESENTED IN THESE SHITTY POLLS!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is a thing I've always wondered about. Are these all landline calls? Because no one has ever called me up to ask my opinion (even though that would annoy me), and I've been registered to vote for a long time. (But I don't have a landline.)

No, unfortunately they call and text cell phones. I don't know how this happened but I somehow got on an Alaska republican list, along with a Derek Schmidt list. I, no exaggeration, got to the point where I was getting up to 5 calls and 3 texts a day from Alaskan pollsters and republican robo calls and texts. Marking them as spam doesn't help because they call and text from different numbers every time.
Here's something I would like to see my state attorney general get to work stamping into oblivion.

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #455 on: November 10, 2022, 10:49:46 AM »
Your stated AG will be too busy on the road with Trump and trying to keep illegals from voting in the 2024 elections.
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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #456 on: November 10, 2022, 11:02:03 AM »
What's dumber: Not understanding which polls count and which ones don't? Or not understanding that not everyone understands which polls count and which ones don't?

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1590495254691864576
Like most of the folks who say the polls suck, I don’t understand polls at all. So I just find the entire debate to be annoying.

I find it annoying but it's only because because don't in general understand odds, error, and margins. Yes that stuff isn't exactly intuitive, but 538 imo genuinely does their best to parse through that. People see 67% chance of winning and think it's like a grade and that's as good as a win, but obviously it's 2 out of 3, and they try and put it in those terms not percentages all the time, and/or if it's an actual favorite or a dead heat.

What's really annoying is seeing people doing the whisper campaign about "trying to find more dem votes" on some of these counts that are taking long, all without any context of method (mail in vs early vs in person), when the state even allows counting to begin, and who favors those votes. He'll look at Boeberts situation, she might actually pull it off but given rural and often snowed in areas it takes time for mail ballots you know, to be collected and counted
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Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #457 on: November 10, 2022, 11:12:20 AM »
people who don't have a good grasp on odds should just spend a little time playing poker. Like i'm fading a 9-outer so that means i probably got somewhere around a 75-80% chance of winning the hand but that doesn't mean i'm going to unclench until i'm raking in thos chips

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #458 on: November 10, 2022, 11:44:43 AM »
This one is so good (x-post facebook thread, victimization of Rural America thread, America is a Constitutional Republic, etc).


Offline Spracne

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #459 on: November 10, 2022, 12:32:56 PM »
What I gather from that map is that the solution is to build more universities.

Offline Pete

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #460 on: November 10, 2022, 12:54:03 PM »
What the eff, Ellis county?

Offline michigancat

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #461 on: November 10, 2022, 12:55:25 PM »
What the eff, Ellis county?

crawford too

Offline Pete

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #462 on: November 10, 2022, 12:56:17 PM »

Offline Pete

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #463 on: November 10, 2022, 12:57:09 PM »
Apart from Ellis, isn’t every county with a 4 year state institution blue?

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #464 on: November 10, 2022, 12:57:56 PM »
Pitt!  Forgot Pitt

Offline Pete

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #465 on: November 10, 2022, 12:58:36 PM »
Spracne’s theory is fake news.

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #466 on: November 10, 2022, 01:01:36 PM »
Apart from Ellis, isn’t every county with a 4 year state institution blue?

What county is emporia in?
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Offline Pete

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #467 on: November 10, 2022, 01:06:39 PM »
Apart from Ellis, isn’t every county with a 4 year state institution blue?

What county is emporia in?
Lyon

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #468 on: November 10, 2022, 01:08:37 PM »
Apart from Ellis, isn’t every county with a 4 year state institution blue?

What county is emporia in?
Lyon
I've heard that county is filled with Democrap-loving illegals, spandex-wearing bikers and hipster frisbee golf freaks. Unsurprising.

Offline XocolateThundarr

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Offline Brock Landers

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #470 on: November 10, 2022, 01:46:11 PM »
So does this mean Lenny Dykstra isn't going to bang Boebert?

Offline Kid In the Hall

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #471 on: November 10, 2022, 01:47:54 PM »
Pitt!  Forgot Pitt
SEK native shop talk... Pittsburg is an interesting example of a formerly entirely blue area that's now purpleish, but likely on it's way to being red. It was a huge union area in the early/mid 20th century due to coal mining being the major industry and those democratic leanings held fairly strong through the early 2000s even though coal mining had basically evaporated. But, in the last decade or so, it's gone from being one of the only reliably blue counties in the state to more red than blue.

Also, Big Brutus is pretty damn cool.

Offline WildcatNkilt

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #472 on: November 10, 2022, 01:51:41 PM »
Reports are the remaining ballots are heavy Frisch leaning areas.  Lenny Dykstra still has a chance.
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #473 on: November 10, 2022, 01:52:52 PM »
So does this mean Lenny Dykstra isn't going to bang Boebert?

I wouldn't give up on that if I were him.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: 2022 midterm elections
« Reply #474 on: November 10, 2022, 02:08:19 PM »
Pitt!  Forgot Pitt
SEK native shop talk... Pittsburg is an interesting example of a formerly entirely blue area that's now purpleish, but likely on it's way to being red. It was a huge union area in the early/mid 20th century due to coal mining being the major industry and those democratic leanings held fairly strong through the early 2000s even though coal mining had basically evaporated. But, in the last decade or so, it's gone from being one of the only reliably blue counties in the state to more red than blue.

Also, Big Brutus is pretty damn cool.
Have you every gone to see the mined land / superfund sites?
SEK is a great example of what Thomas Franks talks about in his book "What's the Matter with Kansas:

Quote
Grandstanding leaders never deliver, their fury mounts and mounts, and nevertheless they turn out every two years to return their right-wing heroes to office for a second, a third, a twentieth try. The trick never ages; the illusion never wears off. Vote to stop abortion; receive a rollback in capital gains taxes. Vote to make our country strong again; receive deindustrialization. Vote to screw those politically correct college professors; receive electricity deregulation. Vote to get government off our backs; receive conglomeration and monopoly everywhere from media to meatpacking. Vote to stand tall against terrorists; receive Social Security privatization. Vote to strike a blow against elitism; receive a social order in which wealth is more concentrated then ever before in our lifetimes, in which workers have been stripped of power and CEOs are rewarded in a manner beyond imagining.