Lots of rumblings that Kherson looks shaky for Russia to say the least.
Really unclear where things go from here. Putin is getting real pressure from his right to ratchet things up and use tactical nukes. He has already made a series of strategic blunders. I severely misjudged him as I trusted the Ukrainians and thought that it was incomprehensible that Putin would really invade. Putins reputation as a cold operator, has pretty much been blown up as he has clearly blundered multiple times even at achieving the noxious goals he started with.
Putin has panicked several times and may well again, and that prospect should terrify everyone at least as much as Trump/Kim’s bizarre nuclear brinksmanship.
If Ukraine can keep pushing Russia militarily they will regain territory and solidify the support of the West for the long haul. That will be huge, but Russia has more cards to play and there will be plenty of pressure out on the European coalition this winter.
The European winter is forecasted to be unusually cold and there will not be enough gas to go around to keep the homes warm and factories humming. If a few more things break wrong like some European banks become insolvent and/or a major recession then this support may start to wane. The territorial facts on the ground militarily would set the stage for a more advantageous negotiating position for a peace treaty but that seems very far off.
Curious to hear others thoughts on where this is all headed.
