Author Topic: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario  (Read 1446 times)

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Offline CHONGS

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Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« on: November 15, 2021, 01:48:46 PM »
which ChERNOBYL thinks might just happen:

OSU wins out (8-1) [they are in]
OU loses out (7-3)
ISU wins out (7-3)
KSU wins out (7-3)
Baylor loses to KSU (7-3)

If I understand the tiebreaker rules [https://big12sports.com/news/2008/7/31/1546006.aspx] (which I might not) then the next step will be the mini round-robin between the 7-3 teams.   In that case:

OU is (1-2)
ISU is (2-1)
KSU is (1-2)
Baylor is (2-1)

which eliminates OU and KSU. Now we move to head-to-head which gives it to Baylor.

Am I right?


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Offline I_have_purplewood

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2021, 01:50:42 PM »
which ChERNOBYL thinks might just happen:

OSU wins out (8-1) [they are in]
OU loses out (7-3)
ISU wins out (7-3)
KSU wins out (7-3)
Baylor loses to KSU (7-3)

If I understand the tiebreaker rules [https://big12sports.com/news/2008/7/31/1546006.aspx] (which I might not) then the next step will be the mini round-robin between the 7-3 teams.   In that case:

OU is (1-2)
ISU is (2-1)
KSU is (1-2)
Baylor is (2-1)

which eliminates OU and KSU. Now we move to head-to-head which gives it to Baylor.

Am I right?

I just read something very similar to this on CBS Sports. 
Fifteen minutes later, when the Kansas locker room opened its doors to the media, the Jayhawks were still crying. Literally, bawling. All of them. I've never seen anything like it, and I've seen devastated college locker rooms -- after losses in the Final Four, the national championship game -- ever

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2021, 01:54:18 PM »
What happens in that scenario, only ISU loses to TCU (beating OU and losing to TCU is a very ISU thing to do)? That would make everyone 1-1 and it would go down to point differentials, right?

Offline KITNfury

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2021, 02:32:14 PM »
What some dude says about it. Need to read the subsequent tweets.

:dunno:   :pray:

?t=Mw_nk4v52VHGAa5S6q5d9g&s=19

I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2021, 06:18:31 PM »
So, reading that right, really all that needs to happen is:

This weekend:
Beat Baylor but not win by more than 20
ISU has to beat OU

Final Week:
Beat Texas
Baylor has to beat Tech
ISU has to lose to TCU
Okie State has to beat OU

So not impossible but pretty unlikely, the ISU part is the more unbelievable thing out of the whole deal.  Everything else looks "doable" in the sense it wouldn't be that crazy, but ISU having to win @OU and then losing to TCU seems like a stretch.
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Offline bucket

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2021, 06:29:36 PM »

Offline KITNfury

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2021, 06:35:19 PM »
If we win our next 2, I won't care and will party my ass off.
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline tdaver

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2021, 08:09:25 PM »
Looks like second tiebreaker step would be record versus OSU.  Baylor would get in.

Quote
In the event two (or more teams) tie for second or any subsequent position, the tiebreaker procedures below will be used to break all ties as necessary.  For the avoidance of doubt, only Conference records will be used throughout the process:
a.    If two teams are tied, the winner of the regular-season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
b.    If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made.  If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
     1.    The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against each other in a “mini round-robin” format.
     2.    The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference
            standings from top to bottom.
            a. When comparing against the remaining teams in the Conference standings any two-way ties will be broken by head-to-head
            competition before the comparison begins.
            b. If more than a two-way tie exists amongst the remaining teams in the Conference standings, the record against the collective
                tied teams as a group will be used.
     3.    Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points
             allowed in games vs. the tied teams is eliminated from consideration.
     4.    Draw (In the event steps 1-3 cannot break a multi-team tie the prevailing team or teams will be determined by draw at the
            Conference office).
             In the event tiebreaking procedures are unsuccessful and a draw is necessary in determining any portion of seeding,
             the following procedures will be used:
            a. The draw will be conducted in public or with media attendance.
            b. Institutions involved in the drawing have the right to have a local representative in attendance at the drawing.
            c. A single slip of paper for each institution (with name or logo) will be placed in a container and will be drawn in order
            of seeding from highest to lowest.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2021, 08:36:33 AM »
Looks like second tiebreaker step would be record versus OSU.  Baylor would get in.

Quote
In the event two (or more teams) tie for second or any subsequent position, the tiebreaker procedures below will be used to break all ties as necessary.  For the avoidance of doubt, only Conference records will be used throughout the process:
a.    If two teams are tied, the winner of the regular-season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
b.    If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made.  If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
     1.    The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against each other in a “mini round-robin” format.
     2.    The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference
            standings from top to bottom.
            a. When comparing against the remaining teams in the Conference standings any two-way ties will be broken by head-to-head
            competition before the comparison begins.
            b. If more than a two-way tie exists amongst the remaining teams in the Conference standings, the record against the collective
                tied teams as a group will be used.
     3.    Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points
             allowed in games vs. the tied teams is eliminated from consideration.
     4.    Draw (In the event steps 1-3 cannot break a multi-team tie the prevailing team or teams will be determined by draw at the
            Conference office).
             In the event tiebreaking procedures are unsuccessful and a draw is necessary in determining any portion of seeding,
             the following procedures will be used:
            a. The draw will be conducted in public or with media attendance.
            b. Institutions involved in the drawing have the right to have a local representative in attendance at the drawing.
            c. A single slip of paper for each institution (with name or logo) will be placed in a container and will be drawn in order
            of seeding from highest to lowest.

OSU beat all three teams in this hypothetical.

Offline tdaver

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2021, 08:58:11 AM »
You’re right.  My mistake, but then it would fall to record vs ISU and Baylor would get in.

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2021, 09:17:50 AM »
Regardless, I am going to be outraged if we tie for 2nd and don't get in.  We need to put the whole system on trial.

Offline Winters

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2021, 09:31:36 AM »
If we win our next 2, I won't care and will party my ass off.
Do you know how much fun we'd have with ISU fans if we ended our season on a 7 game win streak and won 10 games?  :bwpopcorn:
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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2021, 10:01:42 AM »
If we win our next 2, I won't care and will party my ass off.
Do you know how much fun we'd have with ISU fans if we ended our season on a 7 game win streak and won 10 games?  :bwpopcorn:

It would be something

I'd be pretty happy even winning 1 of the 2, but 9-3 is a solid season no matter which way you slice it, and really only the loss to ISU being the only semi embarrassing loss (but not that bad, just disappointing). If we put a bowl game on top of that I'd freaking be ecstatic.
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Offline WildcatNation

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2021, 10:25:01 AM »
If we win our next 2, I won't care and will party my ass off.
Do you know how much fun we'd have with ISU fans if we ended our season on a 7 game win streak and won 10 games?  :bwpopcorn:

Even if we finish 1-2 and win our bowl game, we will basically have had a better season that ISU has had in its entire history.

Offline KITNfury

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2021, 11:00:19 AM »
If we win our next 2, I won't care and will party my ass off.
Do you know how much fun we'd have with ISU fans if we ended our season on a 7 game win streak and won 10 games?  :bwpopcorn:
Yea, and I too have considered that. Would be very fun.
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2021, 02:50:33 PM »
You’re right.  My mistake, but then it would fall to record vs ISU and Baylor would get in.

i have analyzed all 1,024 of the possible remaining outcomes for the season, and there are several scenarios where KSU/BU/OU are in a 3-way tie for 2nd, but in each of those scenarios ISU is the 5th place team so you are correct, it would go to Baylor.  We are statistically eliminated from playing in CCG unless one of the teams in the tie-breaker scenario gets COVID, in which case I assume the conference would take the next runner up instead of forgoing a CCG.

Online steve dave

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2021, 02:55:02 PM »
It’s like an old fashioned CHUD-off at the top of this piece of crap

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2021, 06:47:09 PM »
If we win our next 2, I won't care and will party my ass off.
Do you know how much fun we'd have with ISU fans if we ended our season on a 7 game win streak and won 10 games?  :bwpopcorn:

They're already crying, full blown tantrums on twitter yesterday

Offline deputy dawg

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2021, 10:26:53 AM »
It sure looks like Qatz could determine who plays in the Dr Pepper:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kansas-st-could-set-ou-071438167.html

Quote
STEPHEN HAWKINS
Thu, November 18, 2021, 1:14 AM
GAME OF THE WEEK

No. 11 Baylor at Kansas State. The four-game winning steak by the Wildcats (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) is the longest in the league after Baylor last week ended Oklahoma's 17 in a row that was the longest among FBS teams. The Bears (8-2, 5-2), who before knocking off the Sooners had a disappointing loss at struggling TCU, can still make the Big 12 title game for the second time in three seasons. But if K-State extends its streak with a win over the Bears, No. 9 Oklahoma State and No. 12 Oklahoma could lock up the two spots in the Big 12 championship game by winning their games Saturday.

Land Thieves have Iowa State at home, but that could be close.

Pokes are at Texas Tech, they should win that game.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2021, 10:30:14 AM by deputy dawg »

Offline MadCat

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #19 on: November 19, 2021, 12:04:48 PM »
I'll just say Baylor doesn't deserve nice things and leave it at that.

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Help me unwind this tiebreaker scenario
« Reply #20 on: November 19, 2021, 01:41:36 PM »
I like the idea of OU/OSU playing at the end of the regular season while already knowing that there will be an immediate rematch.