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Offline Houstoncat93

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Playoff ranking predictions
« on: November 01, 2021, 09:08:43 AM »
Prediction for the first rankings from the Playoff Committee:

1. Georgia
2. Mich. St
3. Alabama
4. Cincy
5. Dirt burglars
6. tOSU


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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2021, 09:33:57 AM »
Seems about right to me
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Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2021, 09:38:30 AM »
1. Georgia
2. Michigan St
3. Cincinnati
4. OU
5. Bama
6. Oregon
7. tOSU

I think this early they'll have a lot of deference to the undefeated teams and head-to-head wins.  The waters will muddy as we go.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2021, 09:49:43 AM »
1. Georgia
2. Michigan St
3. Cincinnati
4. OU
5. Bama
6. Oregon
7. tOSU

I think this early they'll have a lot of deference to the undefeated teams and head-to-head wins.  The waters will muddy as we go.

Flip OU and Cincy but yes, agreed, I legit would be shocked if they put Bama in the top 4 (for now).
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Offline PurpleOil

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2021, 03:59:29 PM »
I was doing a semi-countdown in the realignment thread, so I'll just move it over here.

Quote
Last week

SEC: Alabama took care of business with Tennessee and Georgia had the weekend off. These are the only two realistic possibilities.

big 10: Penn State dropped one they shouldn't have, and is now likely all out of the hunt. Michigan, Michigan St, and Ohio State all still control their own destiny. Iowa still technically in it, but will need help.

Pac: ...

Big XII: Gundy gonna Gundy. BlowU is the only realistic possibility now. Okie Light and Baylor still technically in it, but will need help to climb back into the conversation.


Coastal lost their mid-week game too, so the only other teams left are ND and Wake Forest (who hung 70 on Army btw). Oregon is still technically there, but isn't doing anything to impress the committee and could easily be jumped by ND and WF in the rankings before their CCG, if they make it that far.

So, things continue to look better and better for future conference member Cincinnati.


SEC: With Kentucky and Ole Miss losing, this now leaves Alabama and Georgia as the only mathematically possible teams to make the playoffs from the SEC.

big 10: Iowa continuing to be Iowa and is now eliminated entirely. Michigan is out as well. Only Ohio State and Michigan State stand a chance at making it, and they still have to play each other. Loser is eliminated from the title hunt.

Pac: I know I keep leaving Oregon out of this, even though they're still technically in the hunt. But realistically, they're going to get leap frogged by teams behind them in the rankings before they're likely to hop in themselves.

Big XII: BlowU is it. Baylor and OSU still there, but like Oregon and Ohio State, they'd need help to make it into the conversation.

ACC: Wake Forest still making waves, still undefeated. I'm afraid they won't be able to control their own destiny though due to the brand on their helmets. Big test for them this weekend though going up against North Carolina

The rest: ND beat NC to at least stay alive, but will needs some teams ahead of them to lose.



Things continue to look good for Cincinnati. Thanks to some other teams losing games they shouldn't have, Cincy just about controls their own destiny at this point. If they win out, the only scenario that they really have to worry about is Michigan State going undefeated, Oklahoma going undefeated, and Alabama upsetting an undefeated Georgia in the SEC championship game. I don't think even an undefeated Wake Forest is enough to drop them out of the top 4.

Lots of football left to be played though.

Offline Chingon

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2021, 04:03:33 PM »
According to Chingon (what he expects the committee to do):

1. Georgia
2. Michigan State
3. Oklahoma
4. Alabama
5. Cincinnati
6. Ohio State
7. Oregon
8. Michigan
9. Wake Forest
10. Auburn

What they should do  according to ChERNOBYL (predicting out the rest of the season)

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Michigan State
4. Alabama
5. Michigan
6. Notre Dame
7. Cincinnati
8. Auburn
9. Oklahoma
10. Penn State

Offline Chingon

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2021, 04:05:07 PM »
I was doing a semi-countdown in the realignment thread, so I'll just move it over here.

Quote
Last week

SEC: Alabama took care of business with Tennessee and Georgia had the weekend off. These are the only two realistic possibilities.

big 10: Penn State dropped one they shouldn't have, and is now likely all out of the hunt. Michigan, Michigan St, and Ohio State all still control their own destiny. Iowa still technically in it, but will need help.

Pac: ...

Big XII: Gundy gonna Gundy. BlowU is the only realistic possibility now. Okie Light and Baylor still technically in it, but will need help to climb back into the conversation.


Coastal lost their mid-week game too, so the only other teams left are ND and Wake Forest (who hung 70 on Army btw). Oregon is still technically there, but isn't doing anything to impress the committee and could easily be jumped by ND and WF in the rankings before their CCG, if they make it that far.

So, things continue to look better and better for future conference member Cincinnati.

SEC: With Kentucky and Ole Miss losing, this now leaves Alabama and Georgia as the only mathematically possible teams to make the playoffs from the SEC.

If Auburn wins out they are in the playoffs.

Offline MadCat

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2021, 04:06:00 PM »
poor cincinaggy

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2021, 04:12:50 PM »
I was doing a semi-countdown in the realignment thread, so I'll just move it over here.

Quote
Last week

SEC: Alabama took care of business with Tennessee and Georgia had the weekend off. These are the only two realistic possibilities.

big 10: Penn State dropped one they shouldn't have, and is now likely all out of the hunt. Michigan, Michigan St, and Ohio State all still control their own destiny. Iowa still technically in it, but will need help.

Pac: ...

Big XII: Gundy gonna Gundy. BlowU is the only realistic possibility now. Okie Light and Baylor still technically in it, but will need help to climb back into the conversation.


Coastal lost their mid-week game too, so the only other teams left are ND and Wake Forest (who hung 70 on Army btw). Oregon is still technically there, but isn't doing anything to impress the committee and could easily be jumped by ND and WF in the rankings before their CCG, if they make it that far.

So, things continue to look better and better for future conference member Cincinnati.

SEC: With Kentucky and Ole Miss losing, this now leaves Alabama and Georgia as the only mathematically possible teams to make the playoffs from the SEC.

If Auburn wins out they are in the playoffs.

I also don't know why Oregon is out of consideration.


Any 1 loss P5 champ/Notre Dame is in good shape.  1 loss P5 non-champ is still possible.  0 loss G5 (Cincy) has a shot.  Potentially a 2 loss SEC or longshot 2 loss B10 if we can't get to 4 with the rest.

Offline PurpleOil

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2021, 04:20:39 PM »
I was doing a semi-countdown in the realignment thread, so I'll just move it over here.

Quote
Last week

SEC: Alabama took care of business with Tennessee and Georgia had the weekend off. These are the only two realistic possibilities.

big 10: Penn State dropped one they shouldn't have, and is now likely all out of the hunt. Michigan, Michigan St, and Ohio State all still control their own destiny. Iowa still technically in it, but will need help.

Pac: ...

Big XII: Gundy gonna Gundy. BlowU is the only realistic possibility now. Okie Light and Baylor still technically in it, but will need help to climb back into the conversation.


Coastal lost their mid-week game too, so the only other teams left are ND and Wake Forest (who hung 70 on Army btw). Oregon is still technically there, but isn't doing anything to impress the committee and could easily be jumped by ND and WF in the rankings before their CCG, if they make it that far.

So, things continue to look better and better for future conference member Cincinnati.

SEC: With Kentucky and Ole Miss losing, this now leaves Alabama and Georgia as the only mathematically possible teams to make the playoffs from the SEC.

If Auburn wins out they are in the playoffs.

I also don't know why Oregon is out of consideration.


Any 1 loss P5 champ/Notre Dame is in good shape.  1 loss P5 non-champ is still possible.  0 loss G5 (Cincy) has a shot.  Potentially a 2 loss SEC or longshot 2 loss B10 if we can't get to 4 with the rest.

So, I explained this in the other thread, but the playoff committee has never picked a 2 loss team to be in the playoffs... ever. Auburn has lost to Penn State and Georgia already. The committee has been willing to leave out 1 loss conference champions before, so I don't see them taking a 2 loss Auburn to the playoffs, especially since they haven't been blowing anyone out.

Oregon is out simply because there are much better teams ahead of them, and their strength of schedule isn't going to allow them to climb back into the picture without teams ahead of them losing.

My method of 'rankings' is simply based on the known history of the committee. There are still a lot of possibilities that remain, true, but based on what we know of the teams left, as well as who has traditionally been picked, I stand by my list.

Offline Chingon

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2021, 04:34:42 PM »
The SEC champion will never be left out.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2021, 06:22:18 PM »
Alabama beating Georgia in the SEC championship would be game over for Cincinnati.  If two SEC teams get in its good night for them I think. Have to think tOSU is the rep from big 10 and OU finishes it out and reps the big 12.
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Online MakeItRain

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2021, 02:32:05 AM »
Alabama beating Georgia in the SEC championship would be game over for Cincinnati.  If two SEC teams get in its good night for them I think. Have to think tOSU is the rep from big 10 and OU finishes it out and reps the big 12

I think undefeated Cincinnati will get selected over undefeated Oklahoma. Cincinnati will have the better win of the two, in fact Cincinnati will have the second best non con win in all of college football. Oklahoma wont have any fantastic conference wins, just some good ones and you will be able to say the same about Cincinnati. Cincinnati will be ahead of OU with three games left against SMU and Houston. While OU has a good schedule left, I think Cincinnati has a good enough schedule to hold them off.

I also think this iteration of the committee will select both OU and Cincinnati over a one loss Big 10 team or possibly even a 1 loss SEC runner-up.

The SEC schools will have a bit of a problem this year and it's that the conference appears to be bang average this year. When auburn and kentucky lose again they will either fall out of the top 25 or will be at the bottom of it. Georgia will enter the SEC championship with no win as good as Cincinnati or possibly Oklahoma. Alabama might have a win as good as OU headed to the SEC Championship if Ole Miss can hold on. Mississippi's schedule is really bad to close out the year with the exception of the A&M game, which either way will result in Alabama losing another quality win. In other words this is the worst the SEC has been in the CFP era and them getting two teams is far from a layup.

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2021, 08:30:46 AM »

So, I explained this in the other thread, but the playoff committee has never picked a 2 loss team to be in the playoffs... ever. Auburn has lost to Penn State and Georgia already. The committee has been willing to leave out 1 loss conference champions before, so I don't see them taking a 2 loss Auburn to the playoffs, especially since they haven't been blowing anyone out.

Oregon is out simply because there are much better teams ahead of them, and their strength of schedule isn't going to allow them to climb back into the picture without teams ahead of them losing.

My method of 'rankings' is simply based on the known history of the committee. There are still a lot of possibilities that remain, true, but based on what we know of the teams left, as well as who has traditionally been picked, I stand by my list.

A two loss team would be a first but not an impossibility, IMO, with where we sit now.  Auburn would be adding wins against the #1, #3, and #13 teams in the country as well as be the SEC champion.  They would also have a head-to-head against a 2 loss Bama.  I don't expect winning out to happen but there are plenty of scenarios where they could get in with that.

Oregon will have plenty of teams in front of them lose and will likely be fine if they win out.  They're 7 in the AP and there will be at least two head-to-head games against teams currently ahead of them. 

I don't expect Auburn or Oregon to win out but I think they'll be in if they do.

Offline chum1

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2021, 08:51:08 AM »
Here's Spencer Hall on Cincinnati. I totally agree with the sentiment until proven otherwise.

Quote
Cincinnati received a #2 ranking nationally. This may seem like a boon to their playoff hopes, but remember how buoyancy works in polls for teams off the list of usual suspects. A team like Alabama rises back into the top five two weeks after a disappointing loss. A team like Cincinnati or their predecessor, early to mid 2010s Boise State, rises to #2 as a recognition of good work before being leapfrogged in November by major conference powers winning big games.

Online MakeItRain

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2021, 09:06:47 AM »
Here's Spencer Hall on Cincinnati. I totally agree with the sentiment until proven otherwise.

Quote
Cincinnati received a #2 ranking nationally. This may seem like a boon to their playoff hopes, but remember how buoyancy works in polls for teams off the list of usual suspects. A team like Alabama rises back into the top five two weeks after a disappointing loss. A team like Cincinnati or their predecessor, early to mid 2010s Boise State, rises to #2 as a recognition of good work before being leapfrogged in November by major conference powers winning big games.

That Boise team still was in the position to make a 4 team playoff, if it had existed, until they lost their regular season finale to Collin Kapernick and Nevada. That was the night before we had that awful game at North Texas.

The 2010 Boise team was the only Boise team that was a Cincinnati comp and they absolutely would have finished top 4.

Offline chum1

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2021, 09:33:17 AM »
Here's Spencer Hall on the playoff committee. Again, I agree with the sentiment until proven otherwise.

Quote
a group of college sports administrators decide all this: Not because they are experts at football, but because they represent a kind of shabby, busted Voltron of expertise in the business of college sports
...
The committee makes television, and introducing new characters like Cincinnati this late in the game represents a serious risk of valuable air time better devoted to known quantities like, say, Notre Dame. Notre Dame will get ratings even when they put up three points in sixty minutes, both because they do still hold sway over a devoted fanbase, but also because yelling “HEY NOTRE DAME IS GETTIN’ THEIR ASS BEAT BEHIND THE QUIKTRIP'' still sends the neighbors running to the scene like little else.

Online BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2021, 09:36:40 AM »
Alabama beating Georgia in the SEC championship would be game over for Cincinnati.  If two SEC teams get in its good night for them I think. Have to think tOSU is the rep from big 10 and OU finishes it out and reps the big 12

I think undefeated Cincinnati will get selected over undefeated Oklahoma. Cincinnati will have the better win of the two, in fact Cincinnati will have the second best non con win in all of college football. Oklahoma wont have any fantastic conference wins, just some good ones and you will be able to say the same about Cincinnati. Cincinnati will be ahead of OU with three games left against SMU and Houston. While OU has a good schedule left, I think Cincinnati has a good enough schedule to hold them off.

I also think this iteration of the committee will select both OU and Cincinnati over a one loss Big 10 team or possibly even a 1 loss SEC runner-up.

The SEC schools will have a bit of a problem this year and it's that the conference appears to be bang average this year. When auburn and kentucky lose again they will either fall out of the top 25 or will be at the bottom of it. Georgia will enter the SEC championship with no win as good as Cincinnati or possibly Oklahoma. Alabama might have a win as good as OU headed to the SEC Championship if Ole Miss can hold on. Mississippi's schedule is really bad to close out the year with the exception of the A&M game, which either way will result in Alabama losing another quality win. In other words this is the worst the SEC has been in the CFP era and them getting two teams is far from a layup.

I agree 100% w/ the SEC part. Georgia is running circles around the rest of the conference and I don't think the closest 2nd would get in over an undefeated OU in Cincy - unless of course Georgia agrees to roll over in the CCG because i can't imagine them losing that game would knock them out of the top 4.

I don't know if I agree w/ your take on an undefeated Cincy getting in over an undefeated OU. I agree that their win against ND is a better win than OUs best win - which in this undefeated scenario would either be osu or baylor, twice - but i think they are otherwise evenly enough matched that the committee would defer to whichever team had the better SOS. At the moment OU has a better SOS than Cincy and of their remaining 4 games, 3 of them are against turds and 1 is against a barely clinging to quality rank SMU. And OU has road games at baylor and okst, so i would imagine those SOS rankings would diverge a bit.

Also fwiw I'm not sure which is the go-to standard for determining SoS but every metric i was able to find online all showed OU playing a tougher schedule.

FTR i think both and undefeated Cincy and OU would deserve to be in the playoff, but i think thats only possible if a) OSU loses another game and b) Georgia wins the SEC championship game

Offline Houstoncat93

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2021, 06:24:17 PM »
Prediction for the first rankings from the Playoff Committee:

1. Georgia
2. Mich. St
3. Alabama
4. Cincy
5. Dirt burglars
6. tOSU

Results 11/2/21
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Mich St
4.  :facepalm: Oregon :facepalm:
5. tOSU
6. Cincy (they are not getting in)

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2021, 06:32:01 PM »
Oregon? Are you shitting my dick right now?
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Online MakeItRain

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2021, 06:36:29 PM »


Man I couldn't be any more wrong about Cincinnati and the committee. I can't even believe how awful this first poll was. They have zero shot of getting in. They'd take Notre Dame before they take Cincinnati.

Alabama hasn't done jack crap, and won't until the CCG. Does your resume actually not matter for anything?

Offline yoga-like_abana

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2021, 06:40:05 PM »
Wowza….


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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2021, 06:41:37 PM »
Gene gets on the committee and the thing goes to crap.
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Offline chum1

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2021, 06:44:25 PM »
Gene gets on the committee and the thing goes to crap.

Maybe he's doing the right thing and working to keep OU out!  :Woot:

Offline Spracne

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Re: Playoff ranking predictions
« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2021, 06:46:32 PM »
Holy hat!