Author Topic: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread  (Read 24674 times)

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Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #375 on: September 20, 2023, 11:24:58 PM »
The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb.

correct.
I have come to really dislike the tax credit way in which we do any social program. The old one was dumb the new one was dumb in its administration. Giving children and other non workers money to ensure that they are cared for is absolutely the right thing to do.

i agree with you on running everything through the tax code.

this is going to violate the non-political tag of this thread, but the ctc in particular is being very oversold.  for example, the claim that it reduced "child poverty" makes it sound as if this was an independent measure of the effect.  but of course it's not.  it's just a calculation that if you give the amount of money given out, then mechanically this raises a number of families with children to an income that's over the poverty level.  i have no doubt that there was a concurrent rise in the welfare of poor children whose families received the tax credit, but we shouldn't pretend that we've measured what that benefit was.  we don't know.

the claim that the ctc was super cheap is also false.  in fact, the cost is a big reason it wasn't renewed.  it would have cost 170 billion a year to renew, which is more than twice as much as (the accounting value of mostly surplus and obsolete equipment) we've given ukraine (over a multi-year period).  it's like 20% of the military budget (most of which is salary and benefits, which if cut would also increase child poverty).  it's more than the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the inflation reduction act.

and most of that cost did nothing to reduce child poverty, because it was sent to taxpayers like you, simply as a payment from the government to people suffering no economic hardship, based on the dubious criteria of currently having a child under the age of 18.

https://twitter.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1701671372819214634

meanwhile we shouldn't act like there are no tradeoffs involved in spending money.  we are on track for something like a two trillion deficit this year.  at a time when the economy is growing rapidly and the govt is spending like 5% (i'm guessing, didn't try to look it up) in interest on dept.  we have to either raise revenues (seems unlikely) or cut spending (even less likely).  the one thing we can do fairly easily to try and rationalize the budget is not take on new large spending programs.  and we already have an extremely progressive tax code with a very low tax burden for lower income families.

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1702131547833344285
Our tax code and policy agendas are so intertwined it is hard sometimes to suss out one from the other. It is a horrific tax code and the inefficiencies mean it is not nearly as progressive as we think. if we just had a simpler tax code then compliance issues would get much easier.

Anyway sorry to muck up with too many politics.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #376 on: September 21, 2023, 12:19:20 PM »
I don't know how you can decouple economics from politics

Online steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #377 on: September 21, 2023, 02:34:09 PM »
I don't know how you can decouple economics from politics

well, 16 pages in and we mostly have

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #378 on: September 28, 2023, 09:27:40 AM »
PANHANDLE CHARTS HOT RIGHT NOW STILL




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Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #379 on: September 28, 2023, 09:39:07 AM »
Incredible chart

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #380 on: October 06, 2023, 11:53:18 AM »
Good tweet and reply

https://twitter.com/prestonmui/status/1710336426238443710


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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #381 on: October 06, 2023, 12:05:57 PM »
How come the experts are so bad at guessing what jobs are going to do SD?  Need new experts maybe?
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #382 on: October 06, 2023, 12:41:11 PM »
Top line jobs look good but it's not. We're softening. Thus the rally today on "no rate hike likely."

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #383 on: October 06, 2023, 12:43:45 PM »
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #384 on: October 06, 2023, 01:34:06 PM »
Report I saw said economy added 330k new jobs

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/markets-jobs-report-september/index.html
You need to dig into the report. Headline is trash.

The headline caused the algorithm dump this morning. Then we rallied after the digging through the details.

Daddy Powell's tightening is working.


Online steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #385 on: October 06, 2023, 04:18:36 PM »
Top line jobs look good but it's not. We're softening. Thus the rally today on "no rate hike likely."
That may be but as a little pro tip I’d never read another zerohedge tweet in the rest of my life if I was you.


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Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #386 on: October 06, 2023, 04:25:20 PM »
Top line jobs look good but it's not. We're softening. Thus the rally today on "no rate hike likely."
That may be but as a little pro tip I’d never read another zerohedge tweet in the rest of my life if I was you.


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Eh. It made the point I wanted to make.

Ya, he's a dip crap.

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Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #387 on: October 06, 2023, 05:54:44 PM »
So here's more breakdown of those "jobs" added. Of course, msm and the government hype team are screaming the headline numbers.

Quote
+123k part time
-22k full time employees (3 m/m in a row
+151k 2nd or 3rd+ job holders.
+222k Unincorporated self employed (1099 gig workers)

Also, know this...

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1699362051334848837?t=tm0H3N1xl2LX7DPwVWOsyw&s=19

Online steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #388 on: October 26, 2023, 07:37:39 AM »

Offline KITNfury

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I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Online steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #390 on: October 26, 2023, 09:25:59 AM »
FOLKS WE ARE COOKIN’

https://twitter.com/josephpolitano/status/1717520041011241233?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ


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Fed seething
JEROME POWELL HATES THIS ONE SIMPLE TRICK!


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Online steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #391 on: December 01, 2023, 11:02:13 AM »
Inflation report has the Fed in full fledged boner mode. Absolutely honking off to it folks.

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1730630449368617125

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1730603857137320280

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #392 on: December 01, 2023, 06:29:46 PM »
Powell: We may have to raise again.

Market: The eff you will.


Online steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #393 on: December 08, 2023, 07:43:29 AM »
THE JOBS NUMBERS! THEY ARE GOOD!

 :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited:

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #394 on: December 08, 2023, 08:12:30 AM »
I'll wait for the real jobs report from zero hedge thank you very much
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #395 on: December 08, 2023, 08:26:31 AM »
I'll wait for the real jobs report from zero hedge thank you very much
Yeah

https://twitter.com/bullandbaird/status/1733120236172222556


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Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #396 on: December 08, 2023, 10:31:56 AM »
Rate hikes have done their job more than they announce. Always revised down.

https://twitter.com/ProfitsTaken/status/1733132505564193163?t=DP4f6608D8f4mHy3zmvzAw&s=19

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #397 on: December 13, 2023, 07:59:38 AM »
Nice PPI numbers today for Jerome and the gang. Now we wait for the rate decision at 2p eastern.

Online steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #398 on: December 13, 2023, 08:45:13 AM »
It’ll be unchanged


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Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #399 on: December 13, 2023, 09:09:16 AM »
It’ll be unchanged


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Perhaps, I should've posted "Now we wait for the press conference at 230p and see how the market takes Jerome's words."

I agree. No rate hike or cut.