Economics Of The Election

[chum1]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1343714209566257153

[wetwillie]

So what’s the likely outcome here?  Mitch says eff it and rolls with $2000?

[Kat Kid]

I think it depends on what loeffler and perdue want tbh, they are holding the cards as preserving the Senate is the goal right now.  I think Bernie is doing a fine move here, but I don't think it amounts to much.

the NDAA is awful and will hamstring Biden from being able to withdraw from Afghanistan (not that he wants to) and is full of other dumb/bad stuff so it is a useful political football for Bernie.  The path to the $2000 checks is pretty tough in my mind though.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I think the $2000 checks are pretty likely. Trump is on board, making them part of the official Republican Party platform.

[kim carnes]

Why are we yeeting out a bunch of 2k checks instead of further increasing unemployment? 

[Kat Kid]

So is anyone joining Bernie on the filibuster...one person can only talk so long. Will be interesting, pretty good move to force the Senate to at least vote and say where they stand instead of playing hide the football during an election with huge implications.

So do people see the checks as stimulus or relief, if they're stimulus wouldn't it make more sense to break some of it out and send it out Q2 next year (once vaccinations have more penetration)? If it's relief then this winter makes more sense (but then you get the argument of shouldn't the relief be more focused on UI, SNAP, housing ect).

not how this works

[sys]

I think it depends on what loeffler and perdue want tbh, they are holding the cards as preserving the Senate is the goal right now.  I think Bernie is doing a fine move here, but I don't think it amounts to much.

hard for me to imagine mcconnell scheduling a vote.  i don't think perdue and loeffler have that much pull.

[Kat Kid]

I think it depends on what loeffler and perdue want tbh, they are holding the cards as preserving the Senate is the goal right now.  I think Bernie is doing a fine move here, but I don't think it amounts to much.

hard for me to imagine mcconnell scheduling a vote.  i don't think perdue and loeffler have that much pull.

the only reason the current bill got moving was because mcconnell was worried about perdue and loeffler.

[Kat Kid]

not how this works

How so? Are you speaking towards cloture?

yeah Bernie isn't going to be up there bloviating.

[sys]

the only reason the current bill got moving was because mcconnell was worried about perdue and loeffler.

i don't think that's true.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I have trouble believing Perdue or Loeffler can win their election without the $2000 checks. It helps that they have come out in support of them, but I think most voters will see a failure to take action here as the republicans turning on Trump.

[sys]

I have trouble believing Perdue or Loeffler can win their election without the $2000 checks. It helps that they have come out in support of them, but I think most voters will see a failure to take action here as the republicans turning on Trump.

i think the republicans are more likely to lose in ga than win, but i don't think holding a vote or not will change things.

[Kat Kid]

the only reason the current bill got moving was because mcconnell was worried about perdue and loeffler.

i don't think that's true.

Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, privately made the case to Republicans on Wednesday for a stimulus deal that includes another round of direct payments to struggling Americans, suggesting that delivering such help could boost the party’s hopes of hanging onto their majority in the Senate.

In a call on Wednesday afternoon, Mr. McConnell said that Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, who are both facing January runoffs that will determine which party controls the Senate, were “getting hammered” for Congress’s failure to deliver more pandemic aid to struggling Americans — particularly the direct payments — and that enacting the measure could help them. The Kentucky Republican also emphasized that the package could be signed by President Trump, who has pushed for another round of stimulus checks, and would help those devastated by the pandemic.

Loeffler and Perdue both came out in favor of the $2,000 checks as well, not clear McConnell will go for that, but the chances are getting better and better with Rubio and other Republicans on the record.

[Kat Kid]

I have trouble believing Perdue or Loeffler can win their election without the $2000 checks. It helps that they have come out in support of them, but I think most voters will see a failure to take action here as the republicans turning on Trump.

i think the republicans are more likely to lose in ga than win, but i don't think holding a vote or not will change things.

I will take the other side for $100 a senate seat for even odds.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I have trouble believing Perdue or Loeffler can win their election without the $2000 checks. It helps that they have come out in support of them, but I think most voters will see a failure to take action here as the republicans turning on Trump.

i think the republicans are more likely to lose in ga than win, but i don't think holding a vote or not will change things.

I feel like a large chunk of my facebook newsfeed represents the MAGA news, and they basically think that Pelosi gave them an insult of a $600 stimulus and that it's up to Trump to singlehandedly deliver them the $2000 they deserve. It's possible that they will be able to spin a failure to hold a vote as Pelosi's fault, but I think Mitch is going to have to at the very least draft a new bill that includes $2000 payments, but has some sort of poison pill that the house democrats will reject.

[Institutional Control]

They will lump the $2k with repealing  Section 230.


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[sys]

Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, privately made the case to Republicans on Wednesday for a stimulus deal

i think it added a little additional impetus, but senate republicans had been on record as accepting of a sub 1 trillion, limited state/local, pro-immunity relief bill for a long time before that.  i think mcconnell is pretty responsive to his caucus and he isn't likely to force a vote that the majority of his caucus don't want to take.

the move may be to insert a poison pill or two on a 2k vote to force dems to vote against it.

[sys]

I will take the other side for $100 a senate seat for even odds.

i can get 40:60 for warnock and 35:65 for ossoff on predictit

[sys]

I feel like a large chunk of my facebook newsfeed represents the MAGA news, and they basically think that Pelosi gave them an insult of a $600 stimulus and that it's up to Trump to singlehandedly deliver them the $2000 they deserve. It's possible that they will be able to spin a failure to hold a vote as Pelosi's fault, but I think Mitch is going to have to at the very least draft a new bill that includes $2000 payments, but has some sort of poison pill that the house democrats will reject.

if we lived in ga, would anyone on goEMAW change their vote based on perdue and loeffler voting for a 2k stimulus check vs just agreeing that one should be sent and advocating for it?

i suppose the question is really more whether anyone who already preferred perdue/loeffler but wasn't planning on voting for them change their minds and vote, but either way, i don't think it's many people.

[sys]

worth pointing out on that subject that probably a minimum of 65% of the votes in the upcoming ga election have already been cast and likely a minimum of 75% will have been cast before the earliest possible senate vote.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Basically, the MAGA people trust nobody except for Donald Trump. The republicans don't really need to convince them that the democrats are blocking their money. They need to convince Trump.

[sys]

congrats to all the mcconnell watchers in this thread who placed their bets on "poison pill".

https://twitter.com/hugolowell/status/1344028082399817729

[sys]

actually not sure that report is accurate - may be jumping the gun a bit.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Section 230 basically kills all social media, right? Any other consequences?

[sys]

ok, here's a trustworthy reporter reporting the same (plus more).

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1344043661080862721