Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1068570 times)

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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9200 on: August 06, 2020, 11:30:31 AM »
yeah, 80% with masks and social distancing, and eventually this little rough rider would not have anyone to get.  If an 80% was given to the high exposure people, then could really slow it.  Eventually the virus would have a hard time finding a new host and would just die. 

I am sure it is the R value I am discussing, I just don't read that much about.

We aren't going to need masks or social distancing if we have an 80% effective vaccine widely available.  Hell masks and social distancing alone is making a big dent in the R in a lot of coutnries.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9201 on: August 06, 2020, 11:30:43 AM »
Now back to the RONA

Germany-Most cases since May, just barely cracked the door open on re-opening

Australia-Locked down, more cases

Philippines - Worst country in SE Asia

NC Gov Roy Cooper pretty much signed the death warrant for numerous bars and fitness centers in NC, but extending their Phase 2 another 5 weeks

SARS-Covid-19 will likely never be eradicated, there is no cure, there is no vaccine (yet), and they're hoping for 80% effectiveness from the vaccine . . .  so the sooner we learn to start living with it always being there, the better we're all going to be in the long run.

So why are you wearing a mask?  Go to your RONA party and get it over with?

Yeah, that's what I said, go to the RONA party CoronaBro Phil

I'm not sure what you are getting at here.  Just more Trumping of data or do you have an actual point?

The actual point is, Phil, is that these continued lockdowns are absurd.   I have friends in NC who are probably going to lose their businesses now because they'll have been shut down for months now.   Because a mega Liberal POS Governor wants to inflict as much pain as he can on a swing state over a virus that's never going to go away.   My friends businesses can at least re-open with limited occupancy.

I also bring up the 80% vaccine number, because that's the hoped for number, and it still means that thousands of thousands of people are going to get sick and thousands are going to die (just like the flu and other viral infections every single year) and no one is going say anything about it, particularly if Joe Biden Susan Rice is president.




Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9202 on: August 06, 2020, 11:43:06 AM »
You think a governor is intending to inflict pain on his own state because it is a swing state?

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9203 on: August 06, 2020, 11:47:18 AM »
I think this is just based on raw infection data and population but it's still an interesting way to think about risk

https://twitter.com/berkeleyside/status/1291397395868037121

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9204 on: August 06, 2020, 11:48:45 AM »
What if one infected dink goes to like 5 house parties of 25+ a night which is basically 4 nights a week for 4 years of stone's college life? 

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9205 on: August 06, 2020, 11:53:46 AM »
I think this is just based on raw infection data and population but it's still an interesting way to think about risk

https://twitter.com/berkeleyside/status/1291397395868037121

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

Chase County KS is a bunch of infected ass seeds

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9206 on: August 06, 2020, 11:54:58 AM »
I think this is just based on raw infection data and population but it's still an interesting way to think about risk

https://twitter.com/berkeleyside/status/1291397395868037121

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

Chase County KS is a bunch of infected ass seeds

yeah I wonder what they did

What if one infected dink goes to like 5 house parties of 25+ a night which is basically 4 nights a week for 4 years of stone's college life? 

some studs just can't be modeled

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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9208 on: August 06, 2020, 12:11:50 PM »
Now back to the RONA

Germany-Most cases since May, just barely cracked the door open on re-opening

Australia-Locked down, more cases

Philippines - Worst country in SE Asia

NC Gov Roy Cooper pretty much signed the death warrant for numerous bars and fitness centers in NC, but extending their Phase 2 another 5 weeks

SARS-Covid-19 will likely never be eradicated, there is no cure, there is no vaccine (yet), and they're hoping for 80% effectiveness from the vaccine . . .  so the sooner we learn to start living with it always being there, the better we're all going to be in the long run.

So why are you wearing a mask?  Go to your RONA party and get it over with?

Yeah, that's what I said, go to the RONA party CoronaBro Phil

I'm not sure what you are getting at here.  Just more Trumping of data or do you have an actual point?

The actual point is, Phil, is that these continued lockdowns are absurd.   I have friends in NC who are probably going to lose their businesses now because they'll have been shut down for months now.   Because a mega Liberal POS Governor wants to inflict as much pain as he can on a swing state over a virus that's never going to go away.   My friends businesses can at least re-open with limited occupancy.

I also bring up the 80% vaccine number, because that's the hoped for number, and it still means that thousands of thousands of people are going to get sick and thousands are going to die (just like the flu and other viral infections every single year) and no one is going say anything about it, particularly if Joe Biden Susan Rice is president.

To use your terminology you are rock brained dumb if you think a governor is making moves that hurt his state's economy based on trying to harm a presidential election.  I mean just idiotic.  Texas did lockdowns, are they trying to hurt the presidency or are they cool because the govenor is an R?

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9209 on: August 06, 2020, 12:13:48 PM »
It’s a common MAGA Facebook talking point


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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9211 on: August 06, 2020, 12:17:22 PM »
Great study on asymptomtic people from SK.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission.html

Hightlights

* 30% never developed symptoms
* asymptomatic had as much virus signs in them as symptomatic
* Didn't study how much either group spread it irl

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9212 on: August 06, 2020, 12:29:33 PM »
Now back to the RONA

Germany-Most cases since May, just barely cracked the door open on re-opening

Australia-Locked down, more cases

Philippines - Worst country in SE Asia

NC Gov Roy Cooper pretty much signed the death warrant for numerous bars and fitness centers in NC, but extending their Phase 2 another 5 weeks

SARS-Covid-19 will likely never be eradicated, there is no cure, there is no vaccine (yet), and they're hoping for 80% effectiveness from the vaccine . . .  so the sooner we learn to start living with it always being there, the better we're all going to be in the long run.

So why are you wearing a mask?  Go to your RONA party and get it over with?

Yeah, that's what I said, go to the RONA party CoronaBro Phil

I'm not sure what you are getting at here.  Just more Trumping of data or do you have an actual point?

The actual point is, Phil, is that these continued lockdowns are absurd.   I have friends in NC who are probably going to lose their businesses now because they'll have been shut down for months now.   Because a mega Liberal POS Governor wants to inflict as much pain as he can on a swing state over a virus that's never going to go away.   My friends businesses can at least re-open with limited occupancy.

I also bring up the 80% vaccine number, because that's the hoped for number, and it still means that thousands of thousands of people are going to get sick and thousands are going to die (just like the flu and other viral infections every single year) and no one is going say anything about it, particularly if Joe Biden Susan Rice is president.

To use your terminology you are rock brained dumb if you think a governor is making moves that hurt his state's economy based on trying to harm a presidential election.  I mean just idiotic.  Texas did lockdowns, are they trying to hurt the presidency or are they cool because the govenor is an R?

LOL, you don't have the first clue how the Roy Cooper machine operates.   

We're well past the time for lockdowns, Phil.   The operative word is Texas DID lockdowns.    Cooper extended Phase II into September.   That's 5 more weeks of bars and health clubs being shut down.    So if you're a bar that doesn't want to be in the food service business, you're mumped.   I have several friends who own a business that focuses on special needs and Pre-K thru 6 after school and summer fitness programs and they've been shut down since March. 

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9213 on: August 06, 2020, 12:34:50 PM »
Now back to the RONA

Germany-Most cases since May, just barely cracked the door open on re-opening

Australia-Locked down, more cases

Philippines - Worst country in SE Asia

NC Gov Roy Cooper pretty much signed the death warrant for numerous bars and fitness centers in NC, but extending their Phase 2 another 5 weeks

SARS-Covid-19 will likely never be eradicated, there is no cure, there is no vaccine (yet), and they're hoping for 80% effectiveness from the vaccine . . .  so the sooner we learn to start living with it always being there, the better we're all going to be in the long run.

So why are you wearing a mask?  Go to your RONA party and get it over with?

Yeah, that's what I said, go to the RONA party CoronaBro Phil

I'm not sure what you are getting at here.  Just more Trumping of data or do you have an actual point?

The actual point is, Phil, is that these continued lockdowns are absurd.   I have friends in NC who are probably going to lose their businesses now because they'll have been shut down for months now.   Because a mega Liberal POS Governor wants to inflict as much pain as he can on a swing state over a virus that's never going to go away.   My friends businesses can at least re-open with limited occupancy.

I also bring up the 80% vaccine number, because that's the hoped for number, and it still means that thousands of thousands of people are going to get sick and thousands are going to die (just like the flu and other viral infections every single year) and no one is going say anything about it, particularly if Joe Biden Susan Rice is president.

To use your terminology you are rock brained dumb if you think a governor is making moves that hurt his state's economy based on trying to harm a presidential election.  I mean just idiotic.  Texas did lockdowns, are they trying to hurt the presidency or are they cool because the govenor is an R?

LOL, you don't have the first clue how the Roy Cooper machine operates.   

We're well past the time for lockdowns, Phil.   The operative word is Texas DID lockdowns.    Cooper extended Phase II into September.   That's 5 more weeks of bars and health clubs being shut down.    So if you're a bar that doesn't want to be in the food service business, you're mumped.   I have several friends who own a business that focuses on special needs and Pre-K thru 6 after school and summer fitness programs and they've been shut down since March.

LOL at thinking NC gov is divebombing his own economy for a presidential election that is basically already over.    LOL at you trying to say only D govs are pausing or rolling back lockdowns.  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

sucks for your friends no doubt.  We all hate this.  Go get a PPP loan.

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9214 on: August 06, 2020, 12:41:54 PM »
Being maga requires you to believe that anything anyone ever does is because of trump
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9215 on: August 06, 2020, 12:53:38 PM »
Now back to the RONA

Germany-Most cases since May, just barely cracked the door open on re-opening

Australia-Locked down, more cases

Philippines - Worst country in SE Asia

NC Gov Roy Cooper pretty much signed the death warrant for numerous bars and fitness centers in NC, but extending their Phase 2 another 5 weeks

SARS-Covid-19 will likely never be eradicated, there is no cure, there is no vaccine (yet), and they're hoping for 80% effectiveness from the vaccine . . .  so the sooner we learn to start living with it always being there, the better we're all going to be in the long run.

So why are you wearing a mask?  Go to your RONA party and get it over with?

Yeah, that's what I said, go to the RONA party CoronaBro Phil

I'm not sure what you are getting at here.  Just more Trumping of data or do you have an actual point?

The actual point is, Phil, is that these continued lockdowns are absurd.   I have friends in NC who are probably going to lose their businesses now because they'll have been shut down for months now.   Because a mega Liberal POS Governor wants to inflict as much pain as he can on a swing state over a virus that's never going to go away.   My friends businesses can at least re-open with limited occupancy.

I also bring up the 80% vaccine number, because that's the hoped for number, and it still means that thousands of thousands of people are going to get sick and thousands are going to die (just like the flu and other viral infections every single year) and no one is going say anything about it, particularly if Joe Biden Susan Rice is president.

To use your terminology you are rock brained dumb if you think a governor is making moves that hurt his state's economy based on trying to harm a presidential election.  I mean just idiotic.  Texas did lockdowns, are they trying to hurt the presidency or are they cool because the govenor is an R?

LOL, you don't have the first clue how the Roy Cooper machine operates.   

We're well past the time for lockdowns, Phil.   The operative word is Texas DID lockdowns.    Cooper extended Phase II into September.   That's 5 more weeks of bars and health clubs being shut down.    So if you're a bar that doesn't want to be in the food service business, you're mumped.   I have several friends who own a business that focuses on special needs and Pre-K thru 6 after school and summer fitness programs and they've been shut down since March.

LOL at thinking NC gov is divebombing his own economy for a presidential election that is basically already over.    LOL at you trying to say only D govs are pausing or rolling back lockdowns.  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

sucks for your friends no doubt.  We all hate this.  Go get a PPP loan.

 :lol: :lol: Oh Phil, you really don't know crap, friend.

I also didn't say only D's were doing it either, but your reading comprehension skills have always sucked.

For the majority of NC, the cases per 10,000 people run between 1.2% to 1.5%.   

Many of the states you are trying to point out have reversed a few things, as opposed to never being allowed to open at all for going on 6 months.   Many of the states on your NYT's list are allowing outdoor seating etc. etc.  Again, as opposed to being completely shut down for 6 months.






Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9216 on: August 06, 2020, 12:55:52 PM »
You are very woke Dax.

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9217 on: August 06, 2020, 01:00:13 PM »
You are very woke Dax.

Try getting beyond reading headlines, Phil


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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9218 on: August 06, 2020, 01:35:08 PM »
Great study on asymptomtic people from SK.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission.html

Hightlights

* 30% never developed symptoms
* asymptomatic had as much virus signs in them as symptomatic

* Didn't study how much either group spread it irl

Genuinely curious, as this seems such a unique feature, just how unique this is, if at all, compared to say influenzas.  Do we even have a range for influenzas; is all this targeted research in the last 8-9 months creating more knowledge about the SARS-Cov family than 100+ years of research into influenzas?

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9219 on: August 07, 2020, 11:44:31 AM »
pretty good thread, serving both as a synthesis of current situation and retrospective of how thinking has evolved.

as an aside, i think the decision to reopen schools and colleges at time when it is estimated we are sustaining ca. 400k new infections/day with them closed will look like the stupidest decision made during the pandemic when this is done.

https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1291008273399853058
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9220 on: August 07, 2020, 11:56:07 AM »
The first tweet is a Captain Obvious HOF nominee.


Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9221 on: August 07, 2020, 01:13:29 PM »
Could this feed into why SE Asia countries aren't being as hard hit?  Maybe their population has been more exposed to similar coronaviruses in the recent past?  Also why so many worldwide are asymptomatic?

https://www.sciencealert.com/common-colds-may-have-primed-some-people-s-immune-systems-for-covid-19

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9222 on: August 07, 2020, 01:21:38 PM »
Could this feed into why SE Asia countries aren't being as hard hit?  Maybe their population has been more exposed to similar coronaviruses in the recent past?  Also why so many worldwide are asymptomatic?

https://www.sciencealert.com/common-colds-may-have-primed-some-people-s-immune-systems-for-covid-19

also maybe they just did a good job with their response?

Nah, probably not, we're the USA and we're the best so they probably just already had coronaviruses

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9223 on: August 07, 2020, 01:40:29 PM »
It’s definitely a combo of both. Battling and building infrastructure for other serious coronaviruses pretty clearly gave the SE Asian countries a leg up.

If you want to compare countries from a pure policy perspective it probably makes more sense to look toward a country like Germany instead of SK.

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #9224 on: August 07, 2020, 01:42:01 PM »
Could this feed into why SE Asia countries aren't being as hard hit?  Maybe their population has been more exposed to similar coronaviruses in the recent past?  Also why so many worldwide are asymptomatic?

https://www.sciencealert.com/common-colds-may-have-primed-some-people-s-immune-systems-for-covid-19

no to the first question, maybe to the second and third.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."