Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread (Read 1070684 times)

michigancat · « **Reply #8900 on:** July 29, 2020, 12:57:54 PM »

Quote from: Phil Titola on July 29, 2020, 12:50:00 PM

Quote from: michigancat on July 29, 2020, 12:38:50 PM
Quote from: Dugout DickStone on July 29, 2020, 11:48:35 AM
super jealous of July 29 Sweden

are they done though? I don't see how they can be done if there's 60% immunity in India.

But that should be our path (people will self-lockdown when cases spike)

I'm inching back towards them being done. I think they will have some flare up though.

is that based on your gut or the anti-vaccer guy?

Phil Titola · « **Reply #8901 on:** July 29, 2020, 12:59:20 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on July 29, 2020, 12:57:54 PM

Quote from: Phil Titola on July 29, 2020, 12:50:00 PM
Quote from: michigancat on July 29, 2020, 12:38:50 PM
Quote from: Dugout DickStone on July 29, 2020, 11:48:35 AM
super jealous of July 29 Sweden

are they done though? I don't see how they can be done if there's 60% immunity in India.

But that should be our path (people will self-lockdown when cases spike)

I'm inching back towards them being done. I think they will have some flare up though.

is that based on your gut or the anti-vaccer guy?

The anti-vaccer guy definately influencing today. That said their chart looks a lot like even thoughs that put in lockdowns so what's up with that?

sys · « **Reply #8902 on:** July 29, 2020, 01:09:22 PM »

Quote from: Phil Titola on July 29, 2020, 12:50:00 PM

I'm inching back towards them being done. I think they will have some flare up though.

you're such an odd poster.

Phil Titola · « **Reply #8903 on:** July 29, 2020, 01:16:08 PM »

Quote from: sys on July 29, 2020, 01:09:22 PM

Quote from: Phil Titola on July 29, 2020, 12:50:00 PM
I'm inching back towards them being done. I think they will have some flare up though.

you're such an odd poster.

Accurate.

Sandstone Outcropping · « **Reply #8904 on:** July 29, 2020, 01:17:15 PM »

Anything new out there about the 20% Herd Immunity Threshold?

michigancat · « **Reply #8905 on:** July 29, 2020, 01:18:01 PM »

Quote from: Sandstone Outcropping on July 29, 2020, 01:17:15 PM

Anything new out there about the 20% Herd Immunity Threshold?

Quote from: sys on July 29, 2020, 11:34:49 AM

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1288512196952154114

sys · « **Reply #8906 on:** July 29, 2020, 01:30:31 PM »

guys, the herd immunity number changes with r. it is literally a mathematical function of r.

michigancat · « **Reply #8907 on:** July 29, 2020, 01:32:29 PM »

Quote from: sys on July 29, 2020, 01:30:31 PM

guys, the herd immunity number changes with r. it is literally a mathematical function of r.

can you explain this in more detail or link to an article that does?

I get the concept but don't quite understand how much the r can vary long term and under various conditions

catastrophe · « **Reply #8908 on:** July 29, 2020, 01:42:15 PM »

I think he’s just saying herd immunity is a nothing term on its own. R will tell you if things are getting better in your herd.

sys · « **Reply #8909 on:** July 29, 2020, 01:47:40 PM »

Quote

Mathematically, the herd immunity threshold is defined by 1 – 1/R0

the point i'm trying to make is that i think everyone is familiar with r_o and how that isn't the same thing as the effective (or instaneous) rate of transmission r_{_eff} (or r_t), which is the rate we actually observe in the wild.

the same thing applies to herd immunity. the actual observed level at which a herd is immune is a function of r_eff, not r_o. so, like, if you're in a herd where everyone is modifying their behaviors to avoid transmission, or where theaters and sporting events are closed or whatever, then you will observe herd immunity at the level based on the r_eff that all those interventions produce.

until everyone stops modifying their behavior, of course.

Sandstone Outcropping · « **Reply #8910 on:** July 29, 2020, 01:55:11 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on July 29, 2020, 01:32:29 PM

Quote from: sys on July 29, 2020, 01:30:31 PM
guys, the herd immunity number changes with r. it is literally a mathematical function of r.

can you explain this in more detail or link to an article that does?

I get the concept but don't quite understand how much the r can vary long term and under various conditions

I think it was sys that linked the article below a few weeks ago. I was just wondering if anything new had been published on this. There seems to be some flattening in new cases in the worst - hit states.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

Sandstone Outcropping · « **Reply #8911 on:** July 29, 2020, 01:58:55 PM »

Quote from: sys on July 29, 2020, 01:47:40 PM

Quote
Mathematically, the herd immunity threshold is defined by 1 – 1/R0

the point i'm trying to make is that i think everyone is familiar with r_o and how that isn't the same thing as the effective (or instaneous) rate of transmission r_{_eff} (or r_t), which is the rate we actually observe in the wild.

the same thing applies to herd immunity. the actual observed level at which a herd is immune is a function of r_eff, not r_o. so, like, if you're in a herd where everyone is modifying their behaviors to avoid transmission, or where theaters and sporting events are closed or whatever, then you will observe herd immunity at the level based on the r_eff that all those interventions produce.

until everyone stops modifying their behavior, of course.

If you take out the part about thousands of humans dying and societal disruption, pandemics can be pretty fascinating.

steve dave · « **Reply #8912 on:** July 29, 2020, 02:01:10 PM »

jesus christ

https://twitter.com/CharlieGileNBC/status/1288525505881350144

Phil Titola · « **Reply #8913 on:** July 29, 2020, 02:15:28 PM »

Quote from: steve dave on July 29, 2020, 02:01:10 PM

jesus christ

https://twitter.com/CharlieGileNBC/status/1288525505881350144

respect the dedication

michigancat · « **Reply #8914 on:** July 29, 2020, 02:21:34 PM »

Quote from: sys on July 29, 2020, 01:47:40 PM

Quote
Mathematically, the herd immunity threshold is defined by 1 – 1/R0

the point i'm trying to make is that i think everyone is familiar with r_o and how that isn't the same thing as the effective (or instaneous) rate of transmission r_{_eff} (or r_t), which is the rate we actually observe in the wild.

the same thing applies to herd immunity. the actual observed level at which a herd is immune is a function of r_eff, not r_o. so, like, if you're in a herd where everyone is modifying their behaviors to avoid transmission, or where theaters and sporting events are closed or whatever, then you will observe herd immunity at the level based on the r_eff that all those interventions produce.

until everyone stops modifying their behavior, of course.

Thanks, that makes sense. It would seem to be somewhat encouraging if Mumbai slums were really approaching herd immunity at 60% infected

DQ12 · « **Reply #8915 on:** July 29, 2020, 02:27:54 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on July 29, 2020, 02:21:34 PM

Thanks, that makes sense. It would seem to be somewhat encouraging if Mumbai slums were really approaching herd immunity at 60% infected

Just to make sure I'm following -- that would be encouraging because the US R rate would be lower than mumbai (because of increased ability to distance/mask/etc.) and impliedly, HIT would be lower??

michigancat · « **Reply #8916 on:** July 29, 2020, 02:29:19 PM »

Quote from: DQ12 on July 29, 2020, 02:27:54 PM

Quote from: michigancat on July 29, 2020, 02:21:34 PM
Thanks, that makes sense. It would seem to be somewhat encouraging if Mumbai slums were really approaching herd immunity at 60% infected
Just to make sure I'm following -- that would be encouraging because the US R rate would be lower than mumbai (because of increased ability to distance/mask/etc.) and impliedly, HIT would be lower??

Yes

DQ12 · « **Reply #8917 on:** July 29, 2020, 02:42:03 PM »

TY. crap's complicated.

steve dave · « **Reply #8918 on:** July 29, 2020, 03:03:29 PM »

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1288524502649966592

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michigancat · « **Reply #8919 on:** July 29, 2020, 04:11:28 PM »

lol

https://twitter.com/russdiamond/status/1288488309816254469

Dugout DickStone · « **Reply #8920 on:** July 29, 2020, 04:25:24 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on July 29, 2020, 04:11:28 PM

lol

https://twitter.com/russdiamond/status/1288488309816254469

That is the Onion right?

steve dave · « **Reply #8921 on:** July 29, 2020, 04:28:47 PM »

lmao

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sonofdaxjones · « **Reply #8922 on:** July 29, 2020, 04:55:11 PM »

Wrong thread dummies

star seed 7 · « **Reply #8923 on:** July 29, 2020, 05:10:03 PM »

Poor russ diamond

sonofdaxjones · « **Reply #8924 on:** July 29, 2020, 05:58:12 PM »

If you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it," the doctor said, before adding that it's not universally recommended, "but if you really want to be complete, you should probably use it if you can," (Fauci on ABC)

We've known about eyes being a conduit for the RONA for a long time.

From the same guy who told us for weeks to not wear masks.

But, gotta hang on his every word (CoronaBros)