CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[DaBigTrain]

https://twitter.com/wsj/status/1314558787534106624

[steve dave]

On top of the NBA success the actual resort has been a good example of how everything can open safely

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/business/disney-world-coronavirus.html


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[michigancat]

so I was looking at cpimtru on 91-divoc and remembered Belgium did really really bad early on so I checked in on them again and like wtf are they doing




and here is their response

Bars will have to close at 11 p.m. instead of 1 a.m. and only four people will be allowed per table. People can also only have close contact with three people (down from five) outside their household.

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgiums-tightens-corona-virus-measures/

[michigancat]

On top of the NBA success the actual resort has been a good example of how everything can open safely

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/business/disney-world-coronavirus.html


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when is the next dave family trip?

[sonofdaxjones]

Europe surpassed 100K new cases in a single day, yesterday.

Russia, France, UK and Spain have combined to average over 50K new cases a day for the last 4 days and have piled on 300K plus new cases in the last 8 days.

The mortality rate in the UK is still above 7%.

Eastern Europe excluding Russia had new record levels of cases.

Cases are on the rise again in Italy with the highest daily totals in months and Spain has declared a state of emergency.

[Cire]

Yikes


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[steve dave]

On top of the NBA success the actual resort has been a good example of how everything can open safely

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/business/disney-world-coronavirus.html


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when is the next dave family trip?

Next one is currently scheduled for December. Then bigger family trip in May (hoping but not optimistic we are chipped by then).


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[Phil Titola]

Context EU almost to catch up to US in per capita cases. Difference? They are putting in mitigations we are playing grabass in the Whitehouse.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&country=USA~MEX~NOR~EuropeanUnion&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

[michigancat]

Context EU almost to catch up to US in per capita cases. Difference? They are putting in mitigations we are playing grabass in the Whitehouse.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&country=USA~MEX~NOR~EuropeanUnion&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

I think most of Europe is less restrictive than California and New York at least

[kim carnes]

Context EU almost to catch up to US in per capita cases. Difference? They are putting in mitigations we are playing grabass in the Whitehouse.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&country=USA~MEX~NOR~EuropeanUnion&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

Phil, the citizens of this country have made a conscientious choice which has resulted in what you see before you today.  This isn’t SE Asia, we don’t listen.

[sonofdaxjones]

The WHO says no lockdowns.


https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1314573157827858434?s=21

Mitigation’s?   Geezus, Phil.   You still can’t go to a movie or see a show in most places and the places you can it’s half full at best and everybody has to wear a mask.   NFL and college stadiums are empty to 20% full. 

Many schools are still hybrid environments, most colleges are hybrid and on and on

Phil just wants draconian Federal control.

[michigancat]

It feels like we're still missing a big variable in this fight.  Half a year into limiting crowds, social distancing, etc. and months into mandatory mask wearing in many areas and we're still seeing this thing slow burn throughout the world. 

We've basically eliminated touching of surfaces spreading it.

I don't think surfaces have ever been a significant source of spread. The Japanese got it right: loud talking, close proximity, and indoor spaces with poor ventilation promote spread regardless of how clean the door handles are. It shouldn't surprise anyone that countries with wide open bars are seeing increases in cases.

Yeah that's what I meant.  Scientifically we've found surfaces aren't spreading it, not that our extra cleaning theatre fixed it.

Japan is definitely in better shape but it's still steady # of cases past few months.  Looks like their restaurants and bars went back to normal in September though.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-eases-business-restrictions-despite-COVID-19-risk

yeah their steady number of cases is around 4 per million while the US is around 130. You can probably get away with bars being open and manage contact tracing when the numbers are that low.

True.  Even so they were able to get it down using the same restrictions the US has (proximity, indoor spaces, masks), albeit we're much more piecemeal.  Just seems like our current mitigations aren't quite doing it.

most of the US does not have those restrictions and it was always easier for Japan because it never got out of control nearly as bad as it did here (and also their local public health model seems to be a lot better suited for their "cluster busting"). Remember they had that cruise ship like right off the bat and were on alert while we're just derping our way through a fake China ban waaaaaaay too late.

This deck is interesting:

https://twitter.com/kj_seung/status/1315111522864173057

The two primary reasons they've done well? Cluster-based contact tracing and early detection.

The whole thread on reverse contact tracing/cluster busting us also worth reading.

https://twitter.com/kj_seung/status/1315111482422693888

[sonofdaxjones]

Once they opened up again, Japan exploded with cases.  I posted the articles about it when it happened. 

[sonofdaxjones]

Sweden.  Reporting less than 10 new cases a day for weeks now. 

Oct 7, zero new cases reported as Europe explodes. 

Nominal mitigation measures.

[Phil Titola]

We are doing the sweden way but our citizens suck at it. Worst of both worlds.

[michigancat]

Sweden is seeing a clear uptick in cases, but they're definitely doing better than pretty much all of western europe except Germany.

[sonofdaxjones]

I’m looking at 60k non mitigative seats at Arrowhead.

[star seed 7]

Just for clarification for the putty brain simpletons, how many fans do you think should be allowed at arrowhead?

[Phil Titola]

Sweden isn't looking as rosey as dax wants us to believe? We know data is hard for him.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1315279939499896833?s=19

[Phil Titola]

Just for clarification for the putty brain simpletons, how many fans do you think should be allowed at arrowhead?

Don't poke at your elders

[8manpick]

Sweden isn't looking as rosey as dax wants us to believe? We know data is hard for him.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1315279939499896833?s=19

I was told less than 10 new cases a day for weeks?

[michigancat]

Sweden isn't looking as rosey as dax wants us to believe? We know data is hard for him.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1315279939499896833?s=19

I was told less than 10 new cases a day for weeks?

Maybe you misheard and it was actually deaths. Deaths, cases, potato, potatoe

[sonofdaxjones]

Sweden isn't looking as rosey as dax wants us to believe? We know data is hard for him.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1315279939499896833?s=19

Their mortality is down to nothing.

[sonofdaxjones]

Just for clarification for the putty brain simpletons, how many fans do you think should be allowed at arrowhead?

The amount is fine you dimwit.  Just pointing out to CoronaBro Drama Boy Phil that substantial mitigation factors are still in play.

Some people are just slow and very “reactive”. 

[sonofdaxjones]

A picture that makes the CoronaBro’s happy.