Author Topic: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York  (Read 5684 times)

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Offline CNS

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #50 on: August 02, 2022, 06:37:31 AM »
I saw some polling last week that showed “no” up by 4pts with 10pct “undecided”.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #51 on: August 02, 2022, 07:38:17 AM »
Yes is the slight favorite, but it could go either way.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #52 on: August 02, 2022, 07:46:22 AM »
What’s the o/u for tomorrow’s Kansas abortion vote? What you think will prob happen, not what you want to happen.

I would be surprised if "no" gets within ten points of "yes".

The amendment made the WSJ "Journal" podcast yesterday. Fairly quick, interesting listen:

https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal/kansas-big-abortion-vote/8FB25DDD-700B-47E6-8D35-57535AD2C04F

Offline WildcatNkilt

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #53 on: August 02, 2022, 07:56:34 AM »
The polls were pretty busy this morning.  People are passionate about this vote.
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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #54 on: August 02, 2022, 08:54:34 AM »
I was absolutely busy when I went Friday, friend just told me in Joco along 99k early votes, 25k voted early in 2018. Yes may very well win but I really really think it's going to be super close

What’s the o/u for tomorrow’s Kansas abortion vote? What you think will prob happen, not what you want to happen.

I would be surprised if "no" gets within ten points of "yes".

The amendment made the WSJ "Journal" podcast yesterday. Fairly quick, interesting listen:

https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal/kansas-big-abortion-vote/8FB25DDD-700B-47E6-8D35-57535AD2C04F

I seriously doubt that, it is bananas out there, and I look at this guy for voting stuff:

https://twitter.com/BACaskey

FTR, approx 560k voted in the 2018 primary all in, to get a flavor of numbers to look at:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-kansas-primary-elections.html


The keys will be IMO:

How many more registered D's show up over 150k from 2018

What is that ratio of the undecided 40k (so far)

What is the ratio of the approx 313k pubs that would vote yes vs no (how many are RINOs or women/maybe men that think it's not wort the yes).

Totally anecdotal, but when Roe v Wade was overturned, it was mostly men, not women, even conservatives ones  (save one) that was happy, and I know a lot of Catholic women, up to and including my cousin:

https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/readers-opinion/guest-commentary/article263819783.html?fbclid=IwAR359PXH6cHueYFQaGpWl7zv-yBf-3gouHEUX4Fbfuy3MzfO6CR9y3yVDoM



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Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #55 on: August 02, 2022, 09:13:38 AM »
I was absolutely busy when I went Friday, friend just told me in Joco along 99k early votes, 25k voted early in 2018. Yes may very well win but I really really think it's going to be super close

What’s the o/u for tomorrow’s Kansas abortion vote? What you think will prob happen, not what you want to happen.

I would be surprised if "no" gets within ten points of "yes".

The amendment made the WSJ "Journal" podcast yesterday. Fairly quick, interesting listen:

https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal/kansas-big-abortion-vote/8FB25DDD-700B-47E6-8D35-57535AD2C04F

I seriously doubt that, it is bananas out there, and I look at this guy for voting stuff:

https://twitter.com/BACaskey

FTR, approx 560k voted in the 2018 primary all in, to get a flavor of numbers to look at:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-kansas-primary-elections.html


The keys will be IMO:

How many more registered D's show up over 150k from 2018

What is that ratio of the undecided 40k (so far)

What is the ratio of the approx 313k pubs that would vote yes vs no (how many are RINOs or women/maybe men that think it's not wort the yes).

Totally anecdotal, but when Roe v Wade was overturned, it was mostly men, not women, even conservatives ones  (save one) that was happy, and I know a lot of Catholic women, up to and including my cousin:

https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/readers-opinion/guest-commentary/article263819783.html?fbclid=IwAR359PXH6cHueYFQaGpWl7zv-yBf-3gouHEUX4Fbfuy3MzfO6CR9y3yVDoM
I will admit that my perception of this may be colored by living in an very red area in Kansas. My prediction is that the amendment will pass easily and KS state legislators will try to outdo one another in a bid to craft the nation's most restrictive abortion law during the next session.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #56 on: August 02, 2022, 09:35:22 AM »
I was absolutely busy when I went Friday, friend just told me in Joco along 99k early votes, 25k voted early in 2018. Yes may very well win but I really really think it's going to be super close

What’s the o/u for tomorrow’s Kansas abortion vote? What you think will prob happen, not what you want to happen.

I would be surprised if "no" gets within ten points of "yes".

The amendment made the WSJ "Journal" podcast yesterday. Fairly quick, interesting listen:

https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal/kansas-big-abortion-vote/8FB25DDD-700B-47E6-8D35-57535AD2C04F

I seriously doubt that, it is bananas out there, and I look at this guy for voting stuff:

https://twitter.com/BACaskey

FTR, approx 560k voted in the 2018 primary all in, to get a flavor of numbers to look at:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-kansas-primary-elections.html


The keys will be IMO:

How many more registered D's show up over 150k from 2018

What is that ratio of the undecided 40k (so far)

What is the ratio of the approx 313k pubs that would vote yes vs no (how many are RINOs or women/maybe men that think it's not wort the yes).

Totally anecdotal, but when Roe v Wade was overturned, it was mostly men, not women, even conservatives ones  (save one) that was happy, and I know a lot of Catholic women, up to and including my cousin:

https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/readers-opinion/guest-commentary/article263819783.html?fbclid=IwAR359PXH6cHueYFQaGpWl7zv-yBf-3gouHEUX4Fbfuy3MzfO6CR9y3yVDoM
I will admit that my perception of this may be colored by living in an very red area in Kansas. My prediction is that the amendment will pass easily and KS state legislators will try to outdo one another in a bid to craft the nation's most restrictive abortion law during the next session.

And understand that, my perception is it's be within 5 points depending on my factors I pointed out. I'll be honestly shocked if the winning side wins by greater than 40k votes, if that
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Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #57 on: August 02, 2022, 09:36:57 AM »
The restrictive abortion law is certainly what would happen - I have a little more hope (although know it's unlikely) that No can win. 

I've seen a FB friend that has shared Dinesh D'Souza "docs" also post about voting no so that gave me some hope.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #58 on: August 02, 2022, 09:38:49 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #59 on: August 02, 2022, 09:56:43 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.

Republicans represent more than 2/3 of the house and senate.

Offline WildcatNkilt

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #60 on: August 02, 2022, 09:58:09 AM »
I have hope for the "NO" vote.  Even pro-Trumpers have a vote NO contingency.  A lot of suburban wives are side-eyeing their husbands to ensure they don't eff this one up.

That being said, I'm surrounded by a decent amount of blue.   
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #61 on: August 02, 2022, 10:02:55 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.

Republicans represent more than 2/3 of the house and senate.

Yeah, but not every republican would support a bill that punishes women who abort babies as first degree murderers, without any exceptions for rape, incest, or life of the mother. Probably a little more than half of them would.

Offline Tobias

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #62 on: August 02, 2022, 10:04:31 AM »
I will admit that my perception of this may be colored by living in an very red area in Kansas.

it's pretty depressing in salina, feel like it's 20:1 yes:no yard signs

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #63 on: August 02, 2022, 10:08:31 AM »
I will admit that my perception of this may be colored by living in an very red area in Kansas.

it's pretty depressing in salina, feel like it's 20:1 yes:no yard signs

A friend of mine visited her dad in lindsborg and said she was pleasantly surprised with the no support. She convinced him to put out a no sign and he's one of those crazy republicans with a literal armory bunker with hundreds of guns.
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #64 on: August 02, 2022, 10:09:37 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.
Derek Schmidt will win the governor's race easily. I would be shocked if he does not sign any bill that shows up on his desk. Will be interesting to see if he gives any specifics about restrictions that he would support during the general election campaign.

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #65 on: August 02, 2022, 10:15:17 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.
Derek Schmidt will win the governor's race easily. I would be shocked if he does not sign any bill that shows up on his desk. Will be interesting to see if he gives any specifics about restrictions that he would support during the general election campaign.

If Laura Kelly loses, it will be train-wreck interesting how slippery of a red slope KS will become. 

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #66 on: August 02, 2022, 10:23:09 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.
Derek Schmidt will win the governor's race easily. I would be shocked if he does not sign any bill that shows up on his desk. Will be interesting to see if he gives any specifics about restrictions that he would support during the general election campaign.

Incumbents generally win.

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #67 on: August 02, 2022, 10:26:56 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.
Derek Schmidt will win the governor's race easily. I would be shocked if he does not sign any bill that shows up on his desk. Will be interesting to see if he gives any specifics about restrictions that he would support during the general election campaign.

Incumbents generally win.

Lol, that's some great copium
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Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #68 on: August 02, 2022, 10:32:22 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.
Derek Schmidt will win the governor's race easily. I would be shocked if he does not sign any bill that shows up on his desk. Will be interesting to see if he gives any specifics about restrictions that he would support during the general election campaign.

Incumbents generally win.
She was elected because the Republicans nominated reactionary nutcase Chris Kobach for the last general election. Again, my perspective may be skewed by the region of KS where I live but I don't think Schmidt will have any problem in the general election.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #69 on: August 02, 2022, 11:00:30 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.
Derek Schmidt will win the governor's race easily. I would be shocked if he does not sign any bill that shows up on his desk. Will be interesting to see if he gives any specifics about restrictions that he would support during the general election campaign.

Incumbents generally win.
She was elected because the Republicans nominated reactionary nutcase Chris Kobach for the last general election. Again, my perspective may be skewed by the region of KS where I live but I don't think Schmidt will have any problem in the general election.

On the one hand, she cut taxes and balanced the budget. On the other hand, she suggested that people should wear masks during the pandemic and close the same businesses that every other state did. I think it probably will be pretty close.

Offline WildcatNkilt

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #70 on: August 02, 2022, 11:02:00 AM »
She also received help from Greg Orman. 
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Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #71 on: August 02, 2022, 11:07:51 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.
Derek Schmidt will win the governor's race easily. I would be shocked if he does not sign any bill that shows up on his desk. Will be interesting to see if he gives any specifics about restrictions that he would support during the general election campaign.

Incumbents generally win.
She was elected because the Republicans nominated reactionary nutcase Chris Kobach for the last general election. Again, my perspective may be skewed by the region of KS where I live but I don't think Schmidt will have any problem in the general election.

If you're going to change the number of Ks in Kobach's name, at least do it by adding one.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #72 on: August 02, 2022, 11:32:08 AM »
If it does pass, the governor's race will determine how insane the abortion law ends up being. It's hard to pass too much crazy when you need a 2/3 vote.
Derek Schmidt will win the governor's race easily. I would be shocked if he does not sign any bill that shows up on his desk. Will be interesting to see if he gives any specifics about restrictions that he would support during the general election campaign.

Incumbents generally win.
She was elected because the Republicans nominated reactionary nutcase Chris Kobach for the last general election. Again, my perspective may be skewed by the region of KS where I live but I don't think Schmidt will have any problem in the general election.

On the one hand, she cut taxes and balanced the budget. On the other hand, she suggested that people should wear masks during the pandemic and close the same businesses that every other state did. I think it probably will be pretty close.
This would be a good poll to make down here in the Pit.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #73 on: August 02, 2022, 03:46:59 PM »
I will admit that my perception of this may be colored by living in an very red area in Kansas.

it's pretty depressing in salina, feel like it's 20:1 yes:no yard signs

A friend of mine visited her dad in lindsborg and said she was pleasantly surprised with the no support. She convinced him to put out a no sign and he's one of those crazy republicans with a literal armory bunker with hundreds of guns.

Another, granted anecdotal point that makes me thing this will be very close.

I also know it's just my circle of friends on facebook, but I have a pretty significant group of Catholics in it, and again when Roe was overturned only a handful of people were happy, and none were women, and most did not say anything about it. In fact the only woman I know was happy is a fairly over religious lutheran.

Also had some friends report in on the day of election in lenexa, they said it was a lengthy wait to vote, which tells me turnout is going to be bananas, which given that 99k joco have already voted, may also push it over the edge.
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Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: Kansas- more liberal abortion laws than New York
« Reply #74 on: August 02, 2022, 04:11:20 PM »
I will admit that my perception of this may be colored by living in an very red area in Kansas.

it's pretty depressing in salina, feel like it's 20:1 yes:no yard signs

A friend of mine visited her dad in lindsborg and said she was pleasantly surprised with the no support. She convinced him to put out a no sign and he's one of those crazy republicans with a literal armory bunker with hundreds of guns.

Another, granted anecdotal point that makes me thing this will be very close.

I also know it's just my circle of friends on facebook, but I have a pretty significant group of Catholics in it, and again when Roe was overturned only a handful of people were happy, and none were women, and most did not say anything about it. In fact the only woman I know was happy is a fairly over religious lutheran.

Also had some friends report in on the day of election in lenexa, they said it was a lengthy wait to vote, which tells me turnout is going to be bananas, which given that 99k joco have already voted, may also push it over the edge.
It is kind of interesting. Abortion has been the number one issue for Republican primary voters in KS for as long as I can remember. Bill Graves is about the last Republican I can recall  winning statewide office who was not explicitly pro-life.  It will be interesting to see how big of an issue abortion is in terms of driving voter turn-out in the post-Dobbs world. My sense is that most people who feel strongly about abortion (pro-life or pro-choice) already vote at a pretty high rate.