2020 presidential candidate 'crats

[michigancat]

lol wow

[Katpappy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227675860972470277

He would have won the primary in '16, if it wasn't for the DNC in cahoots with Hillary rough ridin' Bernie over.

[Katpappy]

What a ugly [redacted] he's morphed into.

[catastrophe]

Makes me realize that Jimmy Fallon looks like a mix between Reagan and Pete.

[Trim]

Do that with Pete and Hardhat Currie. Or Cowboy Currie. Or Seersucker Currie.

[chum1]

sanders had like a 30%ish chance and it's gone up to 39%.  biden was at like 40% and that's now cut in half.

I'm sure we all agree that Bernie is in the driver's seat. But does anyone really think Biden is the #2 candidate at this point? His campaign seems DEAD.

[sys]

I'm sure we all agree that Bernie is in the driver's seat. But does anyone really think Biden is the #2 candidate at this point? His campaign seems DEAD.

no one winning is actually the number 2 candidate currently, biden is third.  furthermore, silver has said that his model probably underestimates the possibility of no one winning and doesn't know how to deal with bloomberg.

the field is incredibly weak and all the candidates are massively and very obviously flawed.  but someone has to win (or become the nominee without getting a majority of pledged delegates).

[sys]

He would have won the primary in '16, if it wasn't for the DNC in cahoots with Hillary rough ridin' Bernie over.

clinton kicked his ass fair and square, and it was never even particularly close.

[chum1]

I'm sure we all agree that Bernie is in the driver's seat. But does anyone really think Biden is the #2 candidate at this point? His campaign seems DEAD.

no one winning is actually the number 2 candidate currently, biden is third.  furthermore, silver has said that his model probably underestimates the possibility of no one winning and doesn't know how to deal with bloomberg.

the field is incredibly weak and all the candidates are massively and very obviously flawed.  but someone has to win (or become the nominee without getting a majority of pledged delegates).

Biden is way ahead of the other candidates according to the model. Obviously, we don't know yet, but that doesn't seem to be the way things are headed at all. The more people see of him, the more they think he sucks.

It's been something like 30 years since someone didn't win outright and 538 UNDERESTIMATES this possibility???

I think the candidates are just fine despite not conforming to the incredibly weak and flawed models.

[sonofdaxjones]

The fact that known total WhackJob SysBot calls the 2016 Dem nomination "fair and square" only reminds us all about what a total and absolute Whack-A-Doo SysBot is . . . disgraceful and sad.

[sys]

doesn't exactly lend support to the sanders theory that he will expand the electorate.

[chum1]

Man, Hillary voters are all over the place.

[sys]

It's been something like 30 years since someone didn't win outright and 538 UNDERESTIMATES this possibility???

yeah, basically the model assumes that candidates will drop out when they no longer have a realistic path to getting a majority of pledged delegates because that's what they historically have done; but if 2020 candidates come to believe it is likely that no one will get a majority they may be more likely to stay in the race longer, trying to amass a plurality of delegates or even just a nice chunk to bargain with.  assuming donors will keep their campaigns solvent, of course.

[sonofdaxjones]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/02/aoc-bernie-sanders-campaign-iowa

Cross post?

Sounds like Team AOC was all ready to go Cancel Culture over Joe Rogan.

[sys]

https://twitter.com/amandawgolden/status/1227348587241254912

[MakeItRain]

Little Tiny Baby Klo is getting a whole lot of run for being someone who is a distant fourth in delegates from two hugely white moderate states, including a border state for her.

She hasn't actually done crap. Her performance in NH was what she should have done in Iowa. Flop the two and no one is acting like she's going to do crap going fourth. I'll bet every dollar I have that by the time she quits she'll never break the top 3 in delegates.

[MakeItRain]

Buttigieg’s supporters think this critique conflates political pragmatism with insufficient progressivism. “The other folks running have pretty liberal positions, but they don’t provide the best chance of actually getting these things done,” Adler told me. “Pete has proposed some pretty dramatic stuff with respect to our political institutions, like reforming the Supreme Court and eliminating the filibuster. That’s how you make change happen.”

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/21129665/pete-buttigieg-2020-democratic-primary-millennials

LOL, man people are so rough ridin' dumb. Eliminate student loan debt, impossible, how would we ever do that? Eliminate a Senate rule that has only been strengthened in it's 214 years of it's existence, no rough ridin' problem, bro!

I mean Bernie wants to do something similar for MFA, unless this has changed. 

I like Warren's idea of bringing back the old school filibuster.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/04/10/sanders-rules-healthcare-1267463

I was mocking Buttigieg's and by definition moderates views on what's possible and not possible. They act as if having big ideas are harmful or simply restricted to progressives.

[catastrophe]

Or maybe they just like the middle sized ideas more.

FTR - I’m not aware of any self-described centrists or moderates who are fans of Pete’s half baked court packing proposal.

[MakeItRain]

Klo’s surge is definitely bad for Pete, but also not great for Sanders. It’s mostly anecdotal, but sounds like a fair chunk of Klo’s votes in NH came from former Warren supporters, who you otherwise would’ve expected to go to Bernie as their second choice.

I feel like some of y'all think that New Hampshire is full of progressives and it's not, it's just as moderate as Iowa is. Also remember that New Hampshire has also worked very hard to suppress votes from college students who resided in other states also capping the progressive vote. Bernie did fine.

[michigancat]

Buttigieg’s supporters think this critique conflates political pragmatism with insufficient progressivism. “The other folks running have pretty liberal positions, but they don’t provide the best chance of actually getting these things done,” Adler told me. “Pete has proposed some pretty dramatic stuff with respect to our political institutions, like reforming the Supreme Court and eliminating the filibuster. That’s how you make change happen.”

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/21129665/pete-buttigieg-2020-democratic-primary-millennials

LOL, man people are so rough ridin' dumb. Eliminate student loan debt, impossible, how would we ever do that? Eliminate a Senate rule that has only been strengthened in it's 214 years of it's existence, no rough ridin' problem, bro!

I mean Bernie wants to do something similar for MFA, unless this has changed. 

I like Warren's idea of bringing back the old school filibuster.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/04/10/sanders-rules-healthcare-1267463

I was mocking Buttigieg's and by definition moderates views on what's possible and not possible. They act as if having big ideas are harmful or simply restricted to progressives.

pretty good thread on the subject. (for you, not for the republicans ITT):

https://twitter.com/JuliusGoat/status/1097119860834926592?s=20

http://www.armoxon.com/2019/02/the-compass-and-navigation.html

[sys]

Little Tiny Baby Klo is getting a whole lot of run for being someone who is a distant fourth in delegates from two hugely white moderate states, including a border state for her.

She hasn't actually done crap. Her performance in NH was what she should have done in Iowa. Flop the two and no one is acting like she's going to do crap going fourth. I'll bet every dollar I have that by the time she quits she'll never break the top 3 in delegates.

getting into the top three would require getting one delegate, iirc.  which she very well may not get another delegate, or warren and/or biden may start putting some delegates on the board.  but it doesn't seem that impossible, that i'd throw all my money on it.

i agree that she's getting pretty ridiculous buzz for pretty weak performances.  but that's how weak this field is.

[steve dave]

If Pete wins who is his VP? The police seems like a very McKenzie pick. Booker would also make sense.

Wildcard: Bloomberg


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[steve dave]

Same with Bernie. He’s going to pick some freak show isn’t he. He should just make buds with Warren. He can prove himself wrong about a woman being president when he dies in office!


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[Katpappy]

He would have won the primary in '16, if it wasn't for the DNC in cahoots with Hillary rough ridin' Bernie over.

clinton kicked his ass fair and square, and it was never even particularly close.

The DNC gave CLINTON ALL THE UNDECIDED DELAGATES.  If they would have  SPLIT THEM, SANDERS WOULD HAVE WON THE PRIMARY NOMINATION. 

[sys]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227709609114251266