Bruceketball Winning Factors

[kso_FAN]

I decided to put together a chart that takes the major advanced stats and attempts to correlate which factors have the most impact on winning and losing for oscar teams. For "success" my mark was finishing in the kenpom Top 50 and making the NCAA tournament. For this chart I only looked at oscar's Illinois and K-State teams.



First a brief explanation of the chart:

The first 5 columns focus on the offensive numbers. Column 1 is the factor, column two is the rough goal I set by sorting each factor, roughly staying at the median for each stat. The 3rd and 4th column show what percentage of oscar teams were NCAA/kenpom top 50 when matching or surpassing the goal (>) and what percentage were "successful" when finishing below (<) the goal. The 5th column is this year's current numbers; green is good, red is bad, gray is neutral.

The next 5 columns do the same for defense. The last 5 columns are for offense - defense differential.

This isn't some absolute, but it does show which factors are most important for oscar teams to be successful, some we've talked about here before like 3PT%. Granted, these numbers would probably be similar for almost any coach, but the goal numbers probably would change up or down for each coach. For example, I'm certain OR% was a much more important factor for Frank as compared to oscar.

[KCFDcat]

This is incredibly interesting, and I'm glad you posted it, _fan.


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[8manpick]

Interesting. I'm guessing we can expect many of our numbers to get worse through conference play?

[kso_FAN]

Interesting. I'm guessing we can expect many of our numbers to get worse through conference play?

Yes, that is likely. It will be interesting to see how much they drop.

[kso_FAN]

Even with expected regression, there are still a lot of things to like when compared to the style winning oscar teams play.

I am a bit concerned with oboarding, but its not always a significant factor in winning and losing for oscar.

His keys are efficient offense that shares the ball for good shots, thus the high 3PT% and A% numbers (and low TO%) as factors for winning. Defensively ball pressure (forcing TOs) while keeping teams from shooting a lot of 3s while disrupting offense (lower A%).

Thus, 3PTA% and A% for our opponents is my biggest concern with this team. I think the offensive skill is there to maintain most of our offensive numbers, but if we can't stop people it doesn't matter.

[ksupamplemousse]

After how dreadful we've been offensively the last two years, and relatively sound defensively, is there a reason you're more worried about defensive rather than offensive regression?

[kso_FAN]

After how dreadful we've been offensively the last two years, and relatively sound defensively, is there a reason you're more worried about defensive rather than offensive regression?

I like the offensive skill and make up of this team better than defense right now. Mostly because a) Stokes and Brown are smaller guards and b) besides DJamer we don't have a true post defender and we lack frontcourt depth, mainly for defensive purposes. The offense could still regress more and my perception could be wrong, but that's my feel after the first 3 conference games.

[Cartierfor3]

i like this thank you _FAN

[pissclams]

i'm most surprised by our non-dumbassery

i fully expected to turn the ball over at a much higher % than we have so far but truthfully we're not far enough along in conference to know who or what this team is.  tubby has tt playing well and tonight will be a good litmus test for the bruceketcats.  i'm sure united supermarket arena will be rocking tonight. 

[TheFormerKCCat]

i'm most surprised by our non-dumbassery

i fully expected to turn the ball over at a much higher % than we have so far but truthfully we're not far enough along in conference to know who or what this team is.  tubby has tt playing well and tonight will be a good litmus test for the bruceketcats.  i'm sure united supermarket arena will be rocking tonight.

You know, I thought Tubby was still there too. I watched a few minutes of their game the other night and there is another coach there now (not sure of his name). What happened with Tubby? I looked him up and he's at Memphis now . . . 

[pissclams]

i'm most surprised by our non-dumbassery

i fully expected to turn the ball over at a much higher % than we have so far but truthfully we're not far enough along in conference to know who or what this team is.  tubby has tt playing well and tonight will be a good litmus test for the bruceketcats.  i'm sure united supermarket arena will be rocking tonight.

You know, I thought Tubby was still there too. I watched a few minutes of their game the other night and there is another coach there now (not sure of his name). What happened with Tubby? I looked him up and he's at Memphis now . . . 

[TheFormerKCCat]

The heck is that?

[kso_FAN]

JUCO coach, hired by Bobby Knight when he went to Tech. Then he worked his way through head coaching gigs with a semi pro team and some small schools before taking Ark LR to the NCAAs last year. After that he took the UNLV job, then jumped to Tech when Tubby left.

[pissclams]

i can't wait for the ol' brucester to add this clown to his trophy pile tonight

[sys]

my perception is at odds with yours, royals&.  other than the lack of a shot blocker, i think kstate has a lot of players that are very good defensively, but i don't see a ton of offensive skill.  i mean, they're solid big 12 players, so they're skilled, but nothing special.

[kso_FAN]

The TO/steal numbers are impressive, both season and big 12. They won't continue to have the worst eFG, 2pt, and 3pt percentage defenses in the league, but the early poor start is still a concern. I'm still impressed with the season shooting numbers. I like that we get to the line and TO% is solid for the season. The A% fits what oscar is trying to do.

I'll have to see the offense fail miserably over the next tough stretch of games to change my mind probably.

[sys]

I'll have to see the offense fail miserably over the next tough stretch of games to change my mind probably.

i don't think it will fail miserably.  i just think it will be average.  the whole also may be just a touch greater than the sum of the parts.  like i don't think there are any great passers on the team, but as a group they share the ball very well.  they do a good job on shot selection too.  they're well coached.

[Powercat Posse]

For me, Defensivly, the verdict is still not in yet.  As mentioned us forcing TOs has been great. Maryland is our only Opp who has had under 19.5% on TO.  In the non con, for the most part we did a good job with 2pt% defense.  And the FTR we allow is also good.

Our Def 3PA % and Def 3Pt% have not been anything special. Our DR has been about what we expect.   I'm not gotta get too worried about what Ku did in Lawrence vs our D, but the bad 2nd half following a good 1st half vs Ou was not pleasing

Offensivly, us consistently being above 50% on 2pt and our TO being under 20.0 is a good sign for me.  FT shooting really coming around (75.0% last 10 games).   I hope we avoid games where we are below 1.05 PPP, but being 1.08 or higher in 10 of 15 games is very solid.