Author Topic: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?  (Read 21622 times)

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Offline sys

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #200 on: November 06, 2016, 03:38:59 PM »
this seems to be florida's version of the nevada guy.  lots of good news for clinton in the early turnout.


http://steveschale.squarespace.com/
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #201 on: November 06, 2016, 03:50:56 PM »
That is a lot of non party affiliated voters though holy crap.
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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #202 on: November 06, 2016, 04:22:18 PM »
oh, and black turnout is down pretty much across the board.

https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/795275999739056128

I can't believe NC requires blacks to vote on Sunday.
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Offline sys

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #203 on: November 06, 2016, 07:56:41 PM »
story form of the nevada early vote, by the nevada guy.  talks more about reid's role.


http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/election-2016-nevada-harry-reid-clinton-trump-early-vote-latinos-214426
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline Panjandrum

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #204 on: November 07, 2016, 01:38:44 AM »
oh, and black turnout is down pretty much across the board.

https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/795275999739056128

I can't believe NC requires blacks to vote on Sunday.

You do realize that Souls to the Polls is primarily about the ability to get free transportation to the polls, right?  And the most efficient and least obtrusive time is after or around church services?

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #205 on: November 07, 2016, 09:44:27 AM »
Those black people should have prayed harder for them to keep the polls open on Sunday.

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #206 on: November 07, 2016, 12:09:49 PM »
I don't know where to put this, but this liberal guy traveling with his mom was like totally being a dick face to her on the plane talking about the election. "Like mom, if he doesn't win Florida, he's done. Be prepared to be disappointed on Tuesday" etc. And he was like talking super loud to make sure everyone knew how smart he was about the electoral college. She was from Missouri, but he lived in Denver. I saw this ass hat on the way out there and he went to Portland to watch the national roller derby contest.  :dubious: This poor women was in her mid 80's and her hipster jackass son was trying to troll her in front of everyone. Sad.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #207 on: November 07, 2016, 12:18:12 PM »
what a pos

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #208 on: November 07, 2016, 12:22:35 PM »
He really got under my skin SD.  :curse:

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #209 on: November 07, 2016, 12:29:48 PM »
hipsters  :curse:

Offline chum1

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #210 on: November 07, 2016, 12:32:29 PM »
I think you should have told him about Nate Silver's 65%.

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #211 on: November 07, 2016, 12:34:37 PM »
hipsters  :curse:
They smell like incense burnings.  :curse:

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #212 on: November 07, 2016, 01:02:37 PM »
oh, and black turnout is down pretty much across the board.

https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/795275999739056128

I can't believe NC requires blacks to vote on Sunday.

You do realize that Souls to the Polls is primarily about the ability to get free transportation to the polls, right?  And the most efficient and least obtrusive time is after or around church services?

Sounds like you're  intimating that blacks will only vote if someone drives them from church to the polls.  Very raaaaaacist. :opcat:
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Offline sys

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #213 on: November 07, 2016, 02:07:36 PM »
looks pretty good in florida.  that miami turnout is amazing.

http://steveschale.com/
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #214 on: November 07, 2016, 02:13:44 PM »
looks pretty good in florida.  that miami turnout is amazing.

http://steveschale.com/

20%+ npa seems really high. I would guess a majority are closet pubs.

Also, lol what a tool:

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One last thing -- and this is just for the FL HRC organizers out there.

You all got this. This thing is right there. You've spent 6 months training for this moment. This is what you built for. Do your job today and tomorrow, stay focused on your goals, and you can say you made history.

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Offline chum1

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #215 on: November 07, 2016, 02:21:02 PM »
Oh, Steve Schale is very, very good.

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Duuuuuuval

Offline sys

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #216 on: November 07, 2016, 02:47:07 PM »
I would guess a majority are closet pubs.

if that were true, florida would look like kansas instead of looking like florida.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline sys

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"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline sys

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #218 on: November 07, 2016, 02:58:19 PM »
this guy is also good on florida early vote.


https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #220 on: November 07, 2016, 04:42:53 PM »
These guys are really good in Florida:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Trafalgar_FL_November_2016.pdf

http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/11/possible-polling-error/

Quote
RealClearPolitics (RCP) is a GOP-leaning polling average: RCP accepts polls that are obviously GOP-leaning. They include polls from GOP organizations that admit their bias and others that show it. These include polls that are landline only (conditional on demographics, voters on landlines are more Republican). And, while RCP just takes a simple average, they pick the cut-off to optimize for the GOP. For example, right now they have Colorado at +2.9 for Clinton and include seven polls. The most recent was 11/3-11/4 and the most ancient 10/28-10/31. Of the seven polls four are right-wing and would be rejected by Huffington Post’s Pollster. At least two of them are landline only and one, Gravis, is run by Breitbart (whose executive chairman is taking a leave to run the Trump campaign!). As far as timing, they do not include a 10/27-11/1 CNN poll in Pennsylvania that would boost Clinton’s average there, even though it was taken on 10/27-11/1, even though that timing working in acceptable Colorado. Anyway, you get the picture.

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Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #221 on: November 07, 2016, 04:54:13 PM »
These guys are really good in Florida:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Trafalgar_FL_November_2016.pdf

http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/11/possible-polling-error/

Quote
RealClearPolitics (RCP) is a GOP-leaning polling average: RCP accepts polls that are obviously GOP-leaning. They include polls from GOP organizations that admit their bias and others that show it. These include polls that are landline only (conditional on demographics, voters on landlines are more Republican). And, while RCP just takes a simple average, they pick the cut-off to optimize for the GOP. For example, right now they have Colorado at +2.9 for Clinton and include seven polls. The most recent was 11/3-11/4 and the most ancient 10/28-10/31. Of the seven polls four are right-wing and would be rejected by Huffington Post’s Pollster. At least two of them are landline only and one, Gravis, is run by Breitbart (whose executive chairman is taking a leave to run the Trump campaign!). As far as timing, they do not include a 10/27-11/1 CNN poll in Pennsylvania that would boost Clinton’s average there, even though it was taken on 10/27-11/1, even though that timing working in acceptable Colorado. Anyway, you get the picture.

My guys say your guys are bad

 :lol:

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #222 on: November 07, 2016, 04:56:42 PM »
These guys are fantastic in Nevada

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitYTV0T1hDMnpDVkU/view

EDIT: probably unacceptable to non-partisan Huffington Post pollsters.

Offline chum1

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #223 on: November 07, 2016, 05:41:44 PM »
Interesting thought on the vague concept on uncertainty.

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Their roots are in detail-oriented activities such as fantasy baseball. They score individual pollsters, and they want to predict things like individual-state vote shares. Achieving these goals requires building a model with lots of parameters, and running regressions and other statistical procedures to estimate those parameters. However, every parameter has an uncertainty attached to it. When all those parameters get put together to estimate the overall outcome, the resulting total is highly uncertain.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/is-99-a-reasonable-probability/#more-18522

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?
« Reply #224 on: November 07, 2016, 09:09:24 PM »
I think you should have told him about Nate Silver's 65%.

Almost 70% now...
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