Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined?

[chum1]

Must be nice for Hillary to be able to cruise into Election Day for like the entire month of October.

[_33]

Maybe the first time when there is no incumbent, but I still doubt it.  My guess would be that it's probably like the 4th or 5th time.

[Canary]

While I know it is likely that HRC is going to win the election, there is a part of me still frightened that it won't be a cut and dried win.  I think Trump will drag things even lower after the election.

[CNS]

I think he will be massively abandoned by his party unless the vote differential is only a couple percent. 

As soon as the writing is on the wall, most Pub politicians will begin distancing themselves from an obvious loser so they can better position themselves for whatever is up next for them.

I have no doubt that Guiliani will still be hitting every news station he can and sounding like an idiot doubling down.  He has nothing else and his losery wagon is hitched tight to trumps losery horse.

[stunted]

suck it dumb1

[ChiComCat]

suck it dumb1

seems about right

[star seed 7]

Omg 

[CNS]

 

[stunted]

damn

[MakeItRain]

The stunted character has become as played and stale as the reno sock.

[catastrophe]

suck it dumb1

*based on Facebook activity*

That's only because Clinton supporters have enough decency to be ashamed of their candidate.

[steve dave]

I'm legitimately shocked clinton has more than zero based on facebook activity

[420seriouscat69]

suck it dumb1

*based on Facebook activity*

That's only because Clinton supporters have enough decency to be ashamed of their candidate.

Do you remember how annoying Facebook was when Bernie was running for it? These are the same voters. They've all sold out. They're super active about shoving their opinions down your throat. More active than any Trump supporter I've ever seen. Trump supporters just passively agressively like some dumb crap meme they see in some conservative group they're connected to.

[star seed 7]

I'm legitimately shocked clinton has more than zero based on facebook activity

Facebook bias 

[sys]

it's actually less certain than normal.  there are far more undecided voters than normal for this late in the season.  so you have to account not just for polling error but also the possibility of the undecideds breaking disproportionately one way or the other.  i haven't seen data (i'm not sure how anyone would gather data), but my impression is that it would also be fair to assume more uncertainty over turnout than is normal.

[Cire]

Bilary may break 300 electoral votes.

[chum1]

it's actually less certain than normal.  there are far more undecided voters than normal for this late in the season.  so you have to account not just for polling error but also the possibility of the undecideds breaking disproportionately one way or the other.  i haven't seen data (i'm not sure how anyone would gather data), but my impression is that it would also be fair to assume more uncertainty over turnout than is normal.

What's the correlation between late season undecided voters and greater chance of a disproportionate break? The number of undecided voters decreases every day and a break doesn't appear to be happening. And, I could be wrong, but given the polling in this particular case, I don't think any realistic turnout scenarios could change the outcome.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

In the last 3 years, I'd ay so. It will be the first time in the modern two-party system where the winner doesn't garner 45% of the popular vote.

Assuming NC, FL and OH are all tight, I suspect we won't have a clear cut winner until late in the evening when CO and NV polls close.

Further, the biggest WTF election deserves a huge WTF outcome, so who knows.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

Also, reagan '84 was over in like late '82.

[sys]

What's the correlation between late season undecided voters and greater chance of a disproportionate break?

dunno.  not sure if there has ever even been a comparable number of undecideds in the era of modern polling.

I could be wrong, but given the polling in this particular case, I don't think any realistic turnout scenarios could change the outcome.

i think you're wrong.  clinton seems to be up by about 4-7 pts nationally, but she is doing better in non-competitive states than competitive states, so the mean difference is less in swing states.  turnout will probably decide the election (assuming the undecideds don't break unusually).  trump needs a pretty unusual turnout, so that's bad for him, but it's still bigly important.

like right now 538's best model has it about 85:15.  those are good odds for clinton, but it's not at all like a trump win would be some crazy shock.  and not to 2nd guess the model, but if i had to bet on whether it is overly certain or underly certain, i'd bet the over.

[sys]

undecideds sort of includes third party supporters for uncertainty.  like colorado, which is sort of considered where trump will go to die on election night.  like even if he pulls all those upper midwest swings that he needs he'll still die to death in hippie colorado.  but, iirc colorado has over 20% undecided/third party supporters in recent polls.  if a decent % of those 20+% actually do go to the polls and vote johnson or stein, you're gonna have huge uncertainty over which candidate the other 80% are going to choose.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

I wouldn't tell anyone if I was voting for Trump. Too many smug liberals everywhere just waiting to laugh in your stupid face. But, they won't be around in the voting booth.

And when they pass the exit pollers it's all "HILLARY! YEAH"

[star seed 7]

Shouldn't it tell you something either about yourself or the person you are voting for if you're too embarrassed to admit to voting for that person?

[star seed 7]

Smug liberals laugh at my stupid candidate 

[sonofdaxjones]

Hilbot lib is really fired up.   Can't wait to check off HRC the War Pig.