Author Topic: Post election predictions.  (Read 20700 times)

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Offline catastrophe

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Post election predictions.
« Reply #25 on: October 12, 2016, 01:26:53 PM »
So Hillary's plan to lessen the tax burden on the middle class requires that everyone hire a CPA? :thumbs:

Offline Panjandrum

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2016, 01:28:10 PM »
So Hillary's plan to lessen the tax burden on the middle class requires that everyone hire a CPA? :thumbs:

No, but I'll probably need one.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #27 on: October 12, 2016, 01:29:01 PM »
It sounds like a shitty plan, really.

Offline Mrs. Gooch

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #28 on: October 12, 2016, 01:43:02 PM »
I predict we'll still be looking for a house. Should we lock in an interest rate before or after the election?

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #29 on: October 12, 2016, 02:02:48 PM »
KK why do you think there could be a bubble then?

I think that there is a lot of money globally looking for a good, safe return and we are entering a low growth period as more and more emerging markets mature.  low interest rates on 10 year T bonds mean more money than ever is being stashed in securities and real estate.

Offline sys

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #30 on: October 12, 2016, 02:18:50 PM »
re. bubble, like the guy with the noble prize says, no one can even define a bubble.  re. qe - everyone (2-3 years ago even more everyone) loves to blame qe, but there's no real evidence that qe has caused asset price inflation.  it is becoming more clear that for the past 5 years, growth was low and there were global deflationary pressures which were more than adequate to explain the low interest rates.  it is much harder to predict if the next 5, 10, and 25 years will see the same environment, but if most investors expect that it will, then asset prices are pretty rational.

if asset prices fall in the next four years, it will probably be because the consensus about the direction of growth/interest rates changes.  will that have made the current situation a bubble?  like the guy says, there's no way to say.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #31 on: October 12, 2016, 02:33:50 PM »
KK why do you think there could be a bubble then?

I think that there is a lot of money globally looking for a good, safe return and we are entering a low growth period as more and more emerging markets mature.  low interest rates on 10 year T bonds mean more money than ever is being stashed in securities and real estate.

Where is this money coming from?

Offline renocat

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #32 on: October 19, 2016, 06:49:54 AM »
Assuming Trump goes mental spastic or frothing maddog tonight,  I predict Hillary Clinton will name Al Gore head of EPA.   

Offline renocat

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #33 on: November 08, 2016, 06:55:45 AM »
Madamn President.   Gridlock in Congress.  Healthcare crisis.   Oil crisis.  Stupid wars.   We become second class like UK.   Social and moral unrest escalates.  I learn to live with it cause I can't do anything about it; voters in places like Kansas don't matter.

Offline puniraptor

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #34 on: November 08, 2016, 06:58:17 AM »
15$/hr min wage murders the $5 hot and ready

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #35 on: November 08, 2016, 07:33:47 AM »
KK why do you think there could be a bubble then?

I think that there is a lot of money globally looking for a good, safe return and we are entering a low growth period as more and more emerging markets mature.  low interest rates on 10 year T bonds mean more money than ever is being stashed in securities and real estate.


Where is this money coming from?


lot of it from oligarchs in emerging economies.

Offline CatsNShocks

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #36 on: November 08, 2016, 08:49:00 AM »
Madamn President.   Gridlock in Congress.  Healthcare crisis.   Oil crisis.  Stupid wars.   We become second class like UK.   Social and moral unrest escalates.  I learn to live with it cause I can't do anything about it; voters in places like Kansas don't matter.
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealth out of prosperity.
What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.
The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #37 on: November 08, 2016, 09:01:23 AM »
re. bubble, like the guy with the noble prize says, no one can even define a bubble.  re. qe - everyone (2-3 years ago even more everyone) loves to blame qe, but there's no real evidence that qe has caused asset price inflation.  it is becoming more clear that for the past 5 years, growth was low and there were global deflationary pressures which were more than adequate to explain the low interest rates.  it is much harder to predict if the next 5, 10, and 25 years will see the same environment, but if most investors expect that it will, then asset prices are pretty rational.

if asset prices fall in the next four years, it will probably be because the consensus about the direction of growth/interest rates changes.  will that have made the current situation a bubble?  like the guy says, there's no way to say.

No, the problem is that the market for assets right now could be a bubble because everyone is interdependent upon steady returns being above the interest rates being offered by safe, stable, western bond markets which are locked in a low growth holding pattern.

I'm not sure if the growth/consumption we can count on from emerging economies as consumption in the major economies peaks will be enough to sustain the growth model these securities prices are projecting.

 

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #38 on: November 08, 2016, 09:32:31 AM »
Bubble is when actual earnings are down but stock value doesn't correspondingly go down.  It's fake value. 




Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #39 on: November 08, 2016, 10:01:38 AM »
Bubble is when actual earnings are down but stock value doesn't correspondingly go down.  It's fake value. 



right.

Offline renocat

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #40 on: November 09, 2016, 06:01:09 AM »
Well,.suprise.  Trump.will put together an.excellent cabinet.

Offline puniraptor

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #41 on: November 09, 2016, 07:02:16 AM »
Well,.suprise.  Trump.will put together an.excellent cabinet.
Giuliani, Gingrich etc. Hurl

Offline CNS

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #42 on: November 09, 2016, 07:20:48 AM »
How hilarious will it be if trump snubs giuliani? 

Offline ShellShock

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #43 on: November 09, 2016, 07:25:35 AM »
Democrats take all 3 and and we all rub it in loser republicans face because they did it to themselves and then we stack the court with ultralibs and party into utopia

It's going to be very positive for the nation  :love:

 :ROFL:

Offline puniraptor

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #44 on: November 09, 2016, 07:38:17 AM »
How hilarious will it be if trump snubs giuliani?
Hopefully and very

Offline 8manpick

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #45 on: November 09, 2016, 07:57:59 AM »
How hilarious will it be if trump snubs giuliani?
Hopefully and very
Hilarious and good for everyone
:adios:

Offline star seed 7

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #46 on: November 09, 2016, 08:02:15 AM »
Democrats take all 3 and and we all rub it in loser republicans face because they did it to themselves and then we stack the court with ultralibs and party into utopia

It's going to be very positive for the nation  :love:

 :ROFL:

There were way more racisty people than I thought
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #47 on: November 09, 2016, 08:13:09 AM »
Once people get off work I'm sure that's when the REAL riots will get going. 

Offline 8manpick

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #48 on: November 09, 2016, 08:28:13 AM »
Get your abortions now folks.
:adios:

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Post election predictions.
« Reply #49 on: November 09, 2016, 08:30:11 AM »
Or use protection/birth control like normal adults.  :dunno: