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Author Topic: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA  (Read 6740 times)

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Offline sys

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #25 on: March 03, 2016, 12:05:41 PM »
do kasich.  pretty much the only way to keep trump out is for kasich to win ohio.  rubio cannot win ohio and if trump takes ohio, he's very likely to win the nomination outright.

so give kasich as much from kansas as you can to encourage him along.



also do it because you said he's your favored candidate and voting for a non-favored candidate because they are more likely to win is such Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!), magical thinking that it makes me want to round you all up and shoot you.
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Offline catastrophe

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #26 on: March 03, 2016, 12:19:01 PM »
I seriously doubt any Kasich supporters would go to Trump if Kasich were to drop out, so as long as Rubio is a viable candidate a vote for Kasich is practically supporting either Cruz or Trump by cutting into Rubio's margin.
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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #27 on: March 03, 2016, 12:47:01 PM »
I'm sad :cry:
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Offline star seed 7

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #28 on: March 03, 2016, 01:07:18 PM »
Quote from: sys on March 03, 2016, 12:05:41 PM
do kasich.  pretty much the only way to keep trump out is for kasich to win ohio.  rubio cannot win ohio and if trump takes ohio, he's very likely to win the nomination outright.

so give kasich as much from kansas as you can to encourage him along.



also do it because you said he's your favored candidate and voting for a non-favored candidate because they are more likely to win is such Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!), magical thinking that it makes me want to round you all up and shoot you.

Absolutely hate that logic as well

Aspie bros  :cheers:
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #29 on: March 03, 2016, 01:29:02 PM »
Rubio is 20 points behind in Florida. He has no chance at even winning his own state.
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Offline sys

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #30 on: March 03, 2016, 01:41:47 PM »
Quote from: catastrophe on March 03, 2016, 12:19:01 PM
I seriously doubt any Kasich supporters would go to Trump if Kasich were to drop out, so as long as Rubio is a viable candidate a vote for Kasich is practically supporting either Cruz or Trump by cutting into Rubio's margin.

some definitely would.  it would be a pretty big proportion too.  i saw some old numbers, back when the field was huge, that were like 24% of kasich supporters would go to rubio as their 2nd choice, 16% would go to trump.  i haven't seen more recent numbers with the reduced field, but i'd guess it'd be in the region of 25-33%.  i haven't seen numbers, but i'd expect that not many would go to cruz.
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Offline sys

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #31 on: March 03, 2016, 01:43:45 PM »
as a caveat to my kasich in ks argument - i haven't seen any polls/predictions for ks.  if rubio has a realistic chance of getting any delegates in ks, then go rubio.  if not, go kasich.

i assume he doesn't. but if he does.
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Offline sys

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2016, 01:52:06 PM »
never mind.  just looked up the kansas delegate rules, and you only need 10% to qualify for delegates.  so rubio is the smarter play.
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Offline catastrophe

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2016, 01:59:57 PM »
The priority should be to get to a brokered convention. That means stealing as many delegates from Trump as possible in the non-winner take all states and throwing maximum support behind the most likely to win candidates in the winner take all ones.
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2016, 02:01:37 PM »
Quote from: memphis on March 03, 2016, 01:55:53 PM
Quote from: sys on March 03, 2016, 01:52:06 PM
never mind.  just looked up the kansas delegate rules, and you only need 10% to qualify for delegates.  so rubio is the smarter play.

Also 3 of them are winner take all. Kasich isn't a poor decision since it will still likely take delegates away from Trump, unless he doesn't hit the 10% threshold then it is a really poor decision. I guess it depends on if you think Rubio can actually get enough delegates to win on the first vote.

It doesn't look like Kasich is likely to crack 10% in Kansas. I guess I might vote Rubio and hope he drops out after Florida or something. Voting for the guy I don't like the most really goes against how I usually do things, though.
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Offline sys

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #35 on: March 03, 2016, 02:08:04 PM »
kasich probably isn't going to get 10% in kansas and rubio isn't going to get 1237 delegates.  kasich might get to 10% in some district, but i didn't look deeply enough into the rules to see if that would entitle him to any delegates.  i don't think it would be kk's district, anyways, because iirc, my father is always bitching about how manhattan got shackled to some western ks district somehow.
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Offline star seed 7

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #36 on: March 03, 2016, 02:10:47 PM »
Do you tell him that manhattan IS in western KS?
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Offline Kat Kid

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #37 on: March 03, 2016, 02:13:40 PM »

Quote from: sys on March 03, 2016, 01:52:06 PM
never mind.  just looked up the kansas delegate rules, and you only need 10% to qualify for delegates.  so rubio is the smarter play.

Yeah this was my thinking.


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Offline sys

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #38 on: March 03, 2016, 02:14:57 PM »
Quote from: libliblibliblibliblib on March 03, 2016, 02:10:47 PM
Do you tell him that manhattan IS in western KS?

i don't want my father to laugh in my fat face.
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Offline Mrs. Gooch

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #39 on: March 03, 2016, 02:33:59 PM »
Do whatever you can to keep Donald Drumpf from getting the nomination.
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Offline wetwillie

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #40 on: March 05, 2016, 03:37:33 PM »
Report? 
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Offline Kat Kid

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #41 on: March 05, 2016, 03:45:14 PM »
well, I did not actually do this.  apologies.
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Offline Ptolemy

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #42 on: March 05, 2016, 03:48:16 PM »
Caucused in Shawnee. Line was 2 hours long. Trump signs all over the place and a few Cruz signs. Got inside and there were tables for Trump and Kasich and Rubio but no table advertising Cruz.

Three votes for Cruz from us.

Old lady behind us had Parkinsons and was not comfortable at all standing in line but turned down a provisional ballot which would have allowed her to go home and her vote would be counted later in the week. She said she was afraid her vote would not be counted. Her and the middle age folks behind her were fed up with what the Democrats have done to the country.

17% of returns in: Cruz 50% Trump 26% Rubio 14%.
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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #43 on: March 05, 2016, 03:57:10 PM »
Democrats :curse:
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Offline mocat

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #44 on: March 05, 2016, 03:57:23 PM »
Unreal
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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #45 on: March 05, 2016, 04:11:39 PM »
Quote from: Kat Kid on March 05, 2016, 03:45:14 PM
well, I did not actually do this.  apologies.

Phew :woot:
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Offline sys

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #46 on: March 05, 2016, 04:13:05 PM »
Quote from: Kat Kid on March 05, 2016, 03:45:14 PM
well, I did not actually do this.  apologies.

when trump's greyshirts are rounding up dissenters, you will have no one to blame but yourself.
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Offline sys

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #47 on: March 05, 2016, 04:14:32 PM »
probably will be redshirts, actually.
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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #48 on: March 05, 2016, 04:15:48 PM »
Quote from: sys on March 05, 2016, 04:13:05 PM
Quote from: Kat Kid on March 05, 2016, 03:45:14 PM
well, I did not actually do this.  apologies.

when trump's greyshirts are rounding up dissenters, you will have no one to blame but yourself.

Ted Cruz is currently at 50% in Kansas :sdeek: What's the matter with Kansas indeed.
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Offline sys

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Re: I am caucusing on March 5th for the Republicans AMA
« Reply #49 on: March 05, 2016, 04:17:08 PM »
Quote from: MakeItRain on March 05, 2016, 04:15:48 PM
Ted Cruz is currently at 50% in Kansas :sdeek: What's the matter with Kansas indeed.

maybe they are voting strategically.  rubio in florida, kasich in ohio, cruz in kansas.
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