60% OU
I believe OU is the best team, the best player in the league, and has the most favorable schedule the rest of the way. Lon has his team playing decent defense as well.
18% KU
KU isn't just losing on the road, they are losing badly. They will lose at least 2 more and probably 3 unless Self pulls off a coaching miracle. (which is possible)
12% ISU
ISU already has a home loss to Baylor and losing Long was a big hit to their depth. That will catch up with them.
8% WVU
Huggs has WVU playing well, but they already have the home loss to Texas. Coaching is carrying them and they are probably the least talented of the Big 12's upper tier. They will lose some more games they shouldn't and won't have enough to win the league.
2% Baylor
Baylor will still lose (and win) games they aren't expected to; its what Drew teams do. Not consistent enough to win the league, but they are a good team.