i wanted to figure out how each defense style compares against each other with math.
the top part is the simplest game. bend allows 6 first downs, break allows 3 first downs. breakeven is when break converts 90% fds/tds to break's 81% fds/tds. (or 80% to 64%, 70% to 49%, etc).
the second i make first downs get harder and harder to convert, and add field goals. if bend converts 4 first downs and stalls it attempts a 45 yd fg, if it converts 5 first downs and stalls it attempts a 30 yd fg. if break converts 2 first downs and stalls it attempts a 45 yd fg. i added "avg score 8 poss" to see how realistic it looks.
so basically, if bend converts fds/tds 90%-90%-80%-80%-70%-70%, and break converts fds/tds 74%-66%-58%, they breakeven. which numbers or differences look too high or low?
one thing this doesn't factor in is having a bend but don't break defense gives their own offense worse field position. 90%*90%=81% bend reaches 47, vs 74% for break. kind of explains our shitty field position this year. trying to air it out at a low percentage and having a bend and always breaks defense. also explains good field postion during the klein years. though it was a bend but don't break defense it was above average, and the offense was elite at small chunks (and large chunks).
