Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[WildcatNkilt]

ACC would have been better staying at 13, suing the crap out of Maryland, and adding a 14th when it was all settled.  Louisville coming in less than a week later is going to only help Maryland in the buyout battle.

[sonofdaxjones]

I really am enjoying the "value of the diploma" debates on phog.net.

In the real world I have never once seen athletic conference affiliation come into play during the evaluation of a job candidates academic career . . . unless that athletic conference was spelled I-V-Y.

[michigancat]

I don't think what the SEC has done really helped them.

It's too early to make a definitive judgement, but in the current model, they're killing it.

But it's hard to say what it will look like in 5 years.

They were killing it with 12. And this year they really played a lot of shitty football, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Like you said, too early to make a definitive judgement.

I believe they will always kill it at 14 and especially at 16 because they will have balance in their divisions.  This is what Nebraska really provided (and KSU and CU when we and they were good).  But their balance is both “traditional” and “newcomers”.  And, in a 14 or 16 model (and certainly in a 12 model) there is a greater probability that more teams will have a “good” record, regardless of the % of those teams relative to the conference (i.e. the Big 12 has 90% > .500, I think the SEC has 58%, but that doesn’t matter because they have more artificially created “good” teams).  The Big 12 NEEDS FSU and to a certain extent Clemson in some division with KSU, KU, and ISU in order to create that balance and artificially create “good” teams.

You're already seeing backlash over weak-ass schedules you can play in the SEC now, and expansion will only make it worse. No one cares if you have multiple 1-loss teams if none of them play each other.

Chingon has pointed this out a couple of times: what makes the SEC seem strong more than anything is their OOC scheduling: They always have tough conference games early in the season when most other conferences are playing FCS teams. The winners of those games have inflated rankings relative to the rest of the country, and it carries through to conference play.

[KITNfury]

I don't think what the SEC has done really helped them.

It's too early to make a definitive judgement, but in the current model, they're killing it.

But it's hard to say what it will look like in 5 years.

They were killing it with 12. And this year they really played a lot of shitty football, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Like you said, too early to make a definitive judgement.

I believe they will always kill it at 14 and especially at 16 because they will have balance in their divisions.  This is what Nebraska really provided (and KSU and CU when we and they were good).  But their balance is both “traditional” and “newcomers”.  And, in a 14 or 16 model (and certainly in a 12 model) there is a greater probability that more teams will have a “good” record, regardless of the % of those teams relative to the conference (i.e. the Big 12 has 90% > .500, I think the SEC has 58%, but that doesn’t matter because they have more artificially created “good” teams).  The Big 12 NEEDS FSU and to a certain extent Clemson in some division with KSU, KU, and ISU in order to create that balance and artificially create “good” teams.

You're already seeing backlash over weak-ass schedules you can play in the SEC now, and expansion will only make it worse. No one cares if you have multiple 1-loss teams if none of them play each other.

Chingon has pointed this out a couple of times: what makes the SEC seem strong more than anything is their OOC scheduling: They always have tough conference games early in the season when most other conferences are playing FCS teams. The winners of those games have inflated rankings relative to the rest of the country, and it carries through to conference play.

Backlash from who? Not being sarcastic, I've basically been too butthurt to listen to national media since Baylor.

Before then, nobody seemed to GAS.

[TheHamburglar]

Per Brett McMurphy, FAU is now joining C-USA with MTSU.

So, per my previous post, there are now four schools in C-USA from the former Sun Belt.

Add in 3 schools who just created or are creating their football program: Old Dominion, UTSA, and UNC-Charlotte.

And La Tech, who is currently in a WAC that is just as bad as the Sun Belt.

So it will become a conference of 14 with:
6 true "mid-majors"
1 decent WAC program
4 Sun Belt programs
3 new to college football programs

[DQ12]

Chingon has pointed this out a couple of times: what makes the SEC seem strong more than anything is their OOC scheduling: They always have tough conference games early in the season when most other conferences are playing FCS teams. The winners of those games have inflated rankings relative to the rest of the country, and it carries through to conference play.

Yeah.  Big 12 should try to emulate this ASAP, because it's a huge advantage with tons of monetary implications with BCS NC and at large bids up for grabs.

The maxim is, if you're going to lose, lose early, and if that philosophy is spread over an entire conference (as it is in the SEC) it helps a lot.  Conferences always end up cannibalizing themselves, so it's better to do it early.  That's why pre-cannibalization, there were like, 9 Big 12 teams in the top 35.

[michigancat]

Backlash from who? Not being sarcastic, I've basically been too butthurt to listen to national media since Baylor.

Before then, nobody seemed to GAS.

This, for example:

Bryan Fischer ?@BryanDFischer
Wow. RT @TomFornelli: Saturday's game will be only the 6th time Alabama and Georgia have played since 1995.

It doesn't hurt them yet, but people are starting to take notice, and further expansion will just...expand that.

[catzacker]

I don't think what the SEC has done really helped them.

It's too early to make a definitive judgement, but in the current model, they're killing it.

But it's hard to say what it will look like in 5 years.

They were killing it with 12. And this year they really played a lot of shitty football, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Like you said, too early to make a definitive judgement.

I believe they will always kill it at 14 and especially at 16 because they will have balance in their divisions.  This is what Nebraska really provided (and KSU and CU when we and they were good).  But their balance is both “traditional” and “newcomers”.  And, in a 14 or 16 model (and certainly in a 12 model) there is a greater probability that more teams will have a “good” record, regardless of the % of those teams relative to the conference (i.e. the Big 12 has 90% > .500, I think the SEC has 58%, but that doesn’t matter because they have more artificially created “good” teams).  The Big 12 NEEDS FSU and to a certain extent Clemson in some division with KSU, KU, and ISU in order to create that balance and artificially create “good” teams.

You're already seeing backlash over weak-ass schedules you can play in the SEC now, and expansion will only make it worse. No one cares if you have multiple 1-loss teams if none of them play each other.

Chingon has pointed this out a couple of times: what makes the SEC seem strong more than anything is their OOC scheduling: They always have tough conference games early in the season when most other conferences are playing FCS teams. The winners of those games have inflated rankings relative to the rest of the country, and it carries through to conference play.

Uh, I think what makes the SEC seem so strong is that they’ve won the national title like 20 times in a row with 20 different teams.  KSU played a 7-5 Miami, Alabama played a 8-4 Michigan.  OU played a 12-0 ND team, Florida played a 10-2 FSU, Georgia played a 6-6 GT, Texas played a 6-6 Ole Miss.  LSU played a 7-5 Washinton, OSU played a 7-5 Arizona.   GMAFB. 

The SEC has artificially created league momentum with their league scheduling and it’ hard to see it fading any time soon.  Tenn’s down?  Well, there’s Georgia and Florida (throw in a side of So Carolina).  Auburn’s down?  There’s Alabama and LSU (throw in a side of A&M).  It’s balanced because those division will not only have Ole Miss, Miss St, Vandy, MU, Kentucky, but also whomever is “down” – Tenn, Auburn, Ark.  The combined record of the bottom half of that conference (which is all those teams I just mentioned sans Vandy) is 26-46 (.361).  The Big 12’s is 26-31 (.456).  2 of SEC’s bottom 7 >= .500 records, only 1 has a <.500 record in the ENTIRE Big 12. 

[michigancat]

Uh, I think what makes the SEC seem so strong is that they’ve won the national title like 20 times in a row with 20 different teams.  KSU played a 7-5 Miami, Alabama played a 8-4 Michigan.  OU played a 12-0 ND team, Florida played a 10-2 FSU, Georgia played a 6-6 GT, Texas played a 6-6 Ole Miss.  LSU played a 7-5 Washinton, OSU played a 7-5 Arizona.   GMAFB. 

The SEC has artificially created league momentum with their league scheduling and it’ hard to see it fading any time soon.  Tenn’s down?  Well, there’s Georgia and Florida (throw in a side of So Carolina).  Auburn’s down?  There’s Alabama and LSU (throw in a side of A&M).  It’s balanced because those division will not only have Ole Miss, Miss St, Vandy, MU, Kentucky, but also whomever is “down” – Tenn, Auburn, Ark.  The combined record of the bottom half of that conference (which is all those teams I just mentioned sans Vandy) is 26-46 (.361).  The Big 12’s is 26-31 (.456).  2 of SEC’s bottom 7 >= .500 records, only 1 has a <.500 record in the Big 12. 

I'm not talking about OOC, I'm talking about the way their conference schedule is structured inflating their rankings (which lets them play for more NC's).

Here's another one about weak league schedules that made the rounds of all the national guys:

Josh Kendall ?@JoshatTheState
Spurrier: "'Bama had the weakest sked in West; UGA had the weakest on our side. I find it interesting, haven’t seen anybody write that"

Going to 16 won't let them add another Bama or LSU or Florida. They're diluting their product.

[MadCat]

Per Brett McMurphy, FAU is now joining C-USA with MTSU.

So, per my previous post, there are now four schools in C-USA from the former Sun Belt.

Add in 3 schools who just created or are creating their football program: Old Dominion, UTSA, and UNC-Charlotte.

And La Tech, who is currently in a WAC that is just as bad as the Sun Belt.

So it will become a conference of 14 with:
6 true "mid-majors"
1 decent WAC program
4 Sun Belt programs
3 new to college football programs

Wichita State should really think about firing up their football program again. 

[Panjandrum]

One industry source estimated Big 12 schools will be cashing checks for $30 million-plus in the first year of the playoff beginning in 2014. The total now stands at approximately $20 million per school. Beginning in 2014, the Big 12 will begin taking in $40 million per year from the alignment with the Sugar Bowl (previously Champions Bowl).

“I would be laughing,” said a source who has worked closely with the Big 12. “They're in great shape. If the TV deal was lousy, if in two or three years their network deal was coming up. But right now, the Big 12 has hit the lottery. They've got it perfect. Those guys have it on Easy Street.”

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/21177715/why-the-big-12-is-happy-with-10-amid-the-latest-round-of-realignment

[MadCat]

One industry source estimated Big 12 schools will be cashing checks for $30 million-plus in the first year of the playoff beginning in 2014. The total now stands at approximately $20 million per school. Beginning in 2014, the Big 12 will begin taking in $40 million per year from the alignment with the Sugar Bowl (previously Champions Bowl).

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/21177715/why-the-big-12-is-happy-with-10-amid-the-latest-round-of-realignment

 

[catzacker]

Rusty, no one will care.  Seriously.  They don’t and won’t care.  The teams that won’t play each other will stay up there.  They won’t be penalized.  At all.  Here’s what’s going to happen.  I’m going to give you next year’s starting top 10 (in the coaches poll):

1 ND
2 Florida
3 Alabama
4 Oregon
5 Georgia
6 USC
7 A&M
8 Stanford
9 OU
10 LSU

Go look at A&M’ shedule next year.  I mean, they have Alabama at home early, then @ LSU at the end.  That’s it.  No Florida, Georgia or SC
Go look at Alabama’s schedule next year.  @ A&M in the beginning and LSU  at home towards the end.  That’s it.  No Florida, Georgia or SC

[Cire]

ku would bolt immediately if they got a big 10 offer.

I don't understand the feel to need to add.  agree with the idea that we are sitting pretty cashing huge checks at 10.

[Ira Hayes]

One industry source estimated Big 12 schools will be cashing checks for $30 million-plus in the first year of the playoff beginning in 2014. The total now stands at approximately $20 million per school. Beginning in 2014, the Big 12 will begin taking in $40 million per year from the alignment with the Sugar Bowl (previously Champions Bowl).

“I would be laughing,” said a source who has worked closely with the Big 12. “They're in great shape. If the TV deal was lousy, if in two or three years their network deal was coming up. But right now, the Big 12 has hit the lottery. They've got it perfect. Those guys have it on Easy Street.”

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/21177715/why-the-big-12-is-happy-with-10-amid-the-latest-round-of-realignment

That's the best article I've seen yet that spells out why the Big12 doesn't want/need to expand.  The SEC and big 10 have (or will have) cable networks that they need to feed with product and expand to cable customers. The Big12 is just going after the tier 1/playoff/SugarBowl dollars. When you only split those tier 1 dollars between 10 teams instead of 14, they make up for the lack of a network on per school basis.

Damn, we're incredibly lucky Neinas got involved. When Texas and OU were scared and running around begging for a new home, he brought them back to reality and got them to understand exactly what was going on and why they didn't have to follow the herd. Build that guy a statue. He saved our asses.

[OK_Cat]

we knew it a long time ago   

[michigancat]

Rusty, no one will care.  Seriously.  They don’t and won’t care.  The teams that won’t play each other will stay up there.  They won’t be penalized.  At all.  Here’s what’s going to happen.  I’m going to give you next year’s starting top 10 (in the coaches poll):

1 ND
2 Florida
3 Alabama
4 Oregon
5 Georgia
6 USC
7 A&M
8 Stanford
9 OU
10 LSU

Go look at A&M’ shedule next year.  I mean, they have Alabama at home early, then @ LSU at the end.  That’s it.  No Florida, Georgia or SC
Go look at Alabama’s schedule next year.  @ A&M in the beginning and LSU  at home towards the end.  That’s it.  No Florida, Georgia or SC

It will be harder and harder for people to NOT notice next year.

[mcmwcat]

i confused on who's in the Big East or ACC at this point.   

i have a better idea about the ACC but none on the Big East

[Panjandrum]

One industry source estimated Big 12 schools will be cashing checks for $30 million-plus in the first year of the playoff beginning in 2014. The total now stands at approximately $20 million per school. Beginning in 2014, the Big 12 will begin taking in $40 million per year from the alignment with the Sugar Bowl (previously Champions Bowl).

“I would be laughing,” said a source who has worked closely with the Big 12. “They're in great shape. If the TV deal was lousy, if in two or three years their network deal was coming up. But right now, the Big 12 has hit the lottery. They've got it perfect. Those guys have it on Easy Street.”

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/21177715/why-the-big-12-is-happy-with-10-amid-the-latest-round-of-realignment

That's the best article I've seen yet that spells out why the Big12 doesn't want/need to expand.  The SEC and big 10 have (or will have) cable networks that they need to feed with product and expand to cable customers. The Big12 is just going after the tier 1/playoff/SugarBowl dollars. When you only split those tier 1 dollars between 10 teams instead of 14, they make up for the lack of a network on per school basis.

Damn, we're incredibly lucky Neinas got involved. When Texas and OU were scared and running around begging for a new home, he brought them back to reality and got them to understand exactly what was going on and why they didn't have to follow the herd. Build that guy a statue. He saved our asses.

Another good one that builds on that...

http://www.casualhoya.com/2012/11/27/3698576/big-east-tulane-east-carolina-big-ten-big-12-pac-10-acc-maryland-rutgers-ncaa-realignment

So let's sum this up. We have increasing valuations despite slowing ad revenue and decreasing customer demand. New competition is quickly entering despite the fact that technological innovation is primed to transform the industry. And people in positions of very high power are making rash decisions based on information derived from past trends and not future outlooks. Does this sound familiar to anyone?

[catzacker]

Rusty, no one will care.  Seriously.  They don’t and won’t care.  The teams that won’t play each other will stay up there.  They won’t be penalized.  At all.  Here’s what’s going to happen.  I’m going to give you next year’s starting top 10 (in the coaches poll):

1 ND
2 Florida
3 Alabama
4 Oregon
5 Georgia
6 USC
7 A&M
8 Stanford
9 OU
10 LSU

Go look at A&M’ shedule next year.  I mean, they have Alabama at home early, then @ LSU at the end.  That’s it.  No Florida, Georgia or SC
Go look at Alabama’s schedule next year.  @ A&M in the beginning and LSU  at home towards the end.  That’s it.  No Florida, Georgia or SC

It will be harder and harder for people to NOT notice next year.

meh.  they won't be penalized for it.  not in the preseason polls, not in the harris poll.  people will notice, sure.  but they won't care. And as for the computers, because of the imbalance in the schedules, they espeically won't be penalized for it because they'll play (and beat) some rummy or multiple rummies in their league that will face those other teams, thus, everyone's SOS will be enhanced. 

[mcmwcat]

Rusty, no one will care.  Seriously.  They don’t and won’t care.  The teams that won’t play each other will stay up there.  They won’t be penalized.  At all.  Here’s what’s going to happen.  I’m going to give you next year’s starting top 10 (in the coaches poll):

1 ND
2 Florida
3 Alabama
4 Oregon
5 Georgia
6 USC
7 A&M
8 Stanford
9 OU
10 LSU

Go look at A&M’ shedule next year.  I mean, they have Alabama at home early, then @ LSU at the end.  That’s it.  No Florida, Georgia or SC
Go look at Alabama’s schedule next year.  @ A&M in the beginning and LSU  at home towards the end.  That’s it.  No Florida, Georgia or SC

It will be harder and harder for people to NOT notice next year.

meh.  they won't be penalized for it.  not in the preseason polls, not in the harris poll.  people will notice, sure.  but they won't care. And as for the computers, because of the imbalance in the schedules, they espeically won't be penalized for it because they'll play (and beat) some rummy or multiple rummies in their league that will face those other teams, thus, everyone's SOS will be enhanced.

next year is the last year any of that will matter.  hopefully the Big 12 is well represented in the "selection committee" for the upcoming playoff.

[Belvis Noland]

"[BigXII] already has a 13-year year contract with ESPN and Fox paying the league more than $1 billion. That coincides with a grant-of-rights that basically keeps any of the teams from leaving. If Texas and/or Oklahoma split for, say, the Pac-12 then the Big 12 would keep its TV rights."

This seems to conclude the KU to the big 10 concern, no? 

[MadCat]

"[BigXII] already has a 13-year year contract with ESPN and Fox paying the league more than $1 billion. That coincides with a grant-of-rights that basically keeps any of the teams from leaving. If Texas and/or Oklahoma split for, say, the Pac-12 then the Big 12 would keep its TV rights."

This seems to conclude the KU to the big 10 concern, no?

It would not surprise me if they chewed off their own leg to escape their gilded cage (j/k it actually would).

[Panjandrum]

"[BigXII] already has a 13-year year contract with ESPN and Fox paying the league more than $1 billion. That coincides with a grant-of-rights that basically keeps any of the teams from leaving. If Texas and/or Oklahoma split for, say, the Pac-12 then the Big 12 would keep its TV rights."

This seems to conclude the KU to the big 10 concern, no?

Yes, but let's let the panic run its course.

[Panjandrum]

Make no mistake, keeping Florida State happy in the coming months is huge. After speaking with several prominent FSU boosters in recent weeks, the ACC power is taking this approach: This better not be a sinking ship, or we'll be looking hard for a way out. If that's the case, FSU's Christmas list starts with SEC, with Big 12 close behind. But if the ACC keeps momentum, which seems to be the case based on the last two weeks, then FSU will stick around.

Louisville was added to placate FSU.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/jeremy-fowler/21174545/acc-rallies-after-maryland-defection-presidents-pledge-support-on-conference-call

We have ourselves a Tobacco Road vs. Football power struggle.