Yeah, if he says it enough times it's bound to come true.
I personally think that there's some inevitability to it. Money will follow money. And with the playoff money, Champions Bowl money, TV money, shared conference revenue money, Tier 3 money, etc. the divide between the Big 12 and ACC will probably be be pretty significant when extrapolated over the next 12 years.
The question is whether or not we wait for Notre Dame at #12. If they really are going to dig in on independence and mooch harder with the Big East and NBC, which it appears they probably will, then they're a no-go for the next 12 years, and I don't think we can wait that long.
I don't personally believe the Neinas memo that only one school can provide value. I think that's bogus. Florida State would be a home run for any non-SEC conference (since they already have a big Florida program). If they want to come, I think you have to let them in. Whether or not you want to go to #12 is a legitimate question. I think you'd really be relying on the value of Louisville basketball to help float the value there. As I've said before in this thread, they're the equivalent of a growth stock. There's potential there, but there's also a lot of risk. You may be better off waiting for someone from the ACC to defect, but at the same time, if the Big East goes with NBC, it may behoove ESPN to overpay for Louisville to hurt NBC's investment, thereby bringing total dollars back up to where they need to be.
Regardless, some of the risk here may also be with the Big East's new deal. If NBC is willing to overpay for Notre Dame and the Big East content, they're probably going to want a Grant of Rights, so it may expedite our timetable on them. The same with the ACC as well. If the Big East dollars get close to the ACC dollars, the ACC schools may push ESPN for more money, and the only way they're getting that is a Grant of Rights. So, FSU may get their feet held to the fire a little bit in the next 6 months.
It wouldn't surprise me to see October/November movement on either FSU or Louisville. They've already done the preliminary legwork, which makes them more attractive; that's part of the reason why WVU and Missouri were the final two SEC choices. Clemson is in upheaval right now with a bunch of leadership changes, Miami is waiting to get hammered by the NCAA, and Georgia Tech is probably lukewarm at best (though they're my favorite).
If ND isn't going to move, and it looks like they won't, and Clemson stays disorganized, I'd bet we'd take Louisville if FSU is really itchy. It would pass, but probably not unanimously. FSU would have to be at least 9-1 or 8-2 at worst.
