Author Topic: How much 3 pt shooting is "too much"? The Fools Gold Debate... (Read 4757 times)

CHONGS · « **on:** February 11, 2015, 01:44:17 PM »

I am sure 100% of the shots you take are 3's then you likely aren't going to win very many games. Likewise, if 0% of the shots you take are 3's then you aren't going to win either. Is there an ideal 3PA%? Is it between 30 to 40%?

Is this really even the right statistics to be looking at? Taking a lot of 3's doesn't mean you are necessarily relying on 3's for points. You might be willing hoist up 3-balls because you know your team can o-rebound very well and get easy put backs. Maybe the real thing to look at is what percentage of your points come from 3's. If 50% of your points come from beyond the arc, is that too much? Is 10% too little?

michigancat · « **Reply #1 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:44:48 PM »

depends on the team

sys · « **Reply #2 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:45:27 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on February 11, 2015, 01:44:17 PM

Is it between 30 to 40%?

yes.

Dr Rick Daris · « **Reply #3 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:46:14 PM »

it also seems like you are less likely to turn the ball over if you are hoisting and three and not trying to force something inside.

Sandstone Outcropping · « **Reply #4 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:50:19 PM »

What percentage of possessions should be given to alley-oop dunk attempts? Is there an ideal AODP%

kso_FAN · « **Reply #5 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:50:31 PM »

Lots of things to look at.

How good are your shooters?
How good are your offensive rebounders?
How good are your post scorers?
How good are you at getting to the line?
How good are you in transition defense?

There are others, but those 5 things are pretty important to look at when considering your offensive flow and how often you should shoot 3s.

JMHO.

CHONGS · « **Reply #6 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:51:39 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on February 11, 2015, 01:44:48 PM

depends on the team

Probably somewhat true, but there is probably an ideal "zone" for a generic team to be successful.

pissclams · « **Reply #7 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:55:14 PM »

Quote from: Sandstone Outcropping on February 11, 2015, 01:50:19 PM

What percentage of possessions should be given to alley-oop dunk attempts? Is there an ideal AODP%

a shitload

michigancat · « **Reply #8 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:57:06 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on February 11, 2015, 01:51:39 PM

Quote from: michigancat on February 11, 2015, 01:44:48 PM
depends on the team
Probably somewhat true, but there is probably an ideal "zone" for a generic team to be successful.

How about this:

Shoot as many as you can while keeping your EFG from three above your EFG from 2. Hard to plan for a season that way, but I think you could run exercises/drills in practice that over time could give you enough data from your players to predict in-game 3FG%. 2FG% is a little trickier.

CHONGS · « **Reply #9 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:59:10 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 11, 2015, 01:50:31 PM

Lots of things to look at.

How good are your shooters?
How good are your offensive rebounders?
How good are your post scorers?
How good are you at getting to the line?
How good are you in transition defense?

There are others, but those 5 things are pretty important to look at when considering your offensive flow and how often you should shoot 3s.

JMHO.

These likely do matter, but I suspect the general strategy of how to take advantage of scoring 1.5 times a normal fg is important regardless of personnel.

SdK · « **Reply #10 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:59:32 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 11, 2015, 01:50:31 PM

Lots of things to look at.

How good are your shooters?
How good are your offensive rebounders?
How good are your post scorers?
How good are you at getting to the line?
How good are you in transition defense?

There are others, but those 5 things are pretty important to look at when considering your offensive flow and how often you should shoot 3s.

JMHO.

Little League analysis. I, for one, coached a senior summer league basketball team to 21-1 record. We wore suits and told the players to "turn it up a notch" emeril style. Other teams hated us. Also coached a 3v3 girls team to a tourney championship. Also won the father/son 2v2 basketball tournament at Woolridge camp. I say 36.6%.

#TheWesIsTheFuture

kso_FAN · « **Reply #11 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:02:05 PM »

Quote from: Sundance»¤«Kid on February 11, 2015, 01:59:32 PM

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 11, 2015, 01:50:31 PM
Lots of things to look at.

How good are your shooters?
How good are your offensive rebounders?
How good are your post scorers?
How good are you at getting to the line?
How good are you in transition defense?

There are others, but those 5 things are pretty important to look at when considering your offensive flow and how often you should shoot 3s.

JMHO.
Little League analysis. I, for one, coached a senior summer league basketball team to 21-1 record. We wore suits and told the players to "turn it up a notch" emeril style. Other teams hated us. Also coached a 3v3 girls team to a tourney championship. Also won the father/son 2v2 basketball tournament at Woolridge camp. I say 36.6%.

#TheWesIsTheFuture

Those seem like good strategies. Especially wearing suits in the summer.

I_have_purplewood · « **Reply #12 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:07:22 PM »

Depends on the uniform. I think if some uniforms make a kid feel nice inside and about themselves then it raises their confidence which in turn will make them shoot the 3 better. On the other hand if they wear a bad addias uniform and they hate it? Welp. I also think if the shorts are too baggy it screws the shot up as well.

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #13 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:08:57 PM »

Some 3s are higher percentage than others. If you run an offense than can get wide open looks from the 3 point line all night long, then you should just shoot nothing but 3s.

SdK · « **Reply #14 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:11:57 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 11, 2015, 02:02:05 PM

Quote from: Sundance»¤«Kid on February 11, 2015, 01:59:32 PM
Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 11, 2015, 01:50:31 PM
Lots of things to look at.

How good are your shooters?
How good are your offensive rebounders?
How good are your post scorers?
How good are you at getting to the line?
How good are you in transition defense?

There are others, but those 5 things are pretty important to look at when considering your offensive flow and how often you should shoot 3s.

JMHO.
Little League analysis. I, for one, coached a senior summer league basketball team to 21-1 record. We wore suits and told the players to "turn it up a notch" emeril style. Other teams hated us. Also coached a 3v3 girls team to a tourney championship. Also won the father/son 2v2 basketball tournament at Woolridge camp. I say 36.6%.

#TheWesIsTheFuture

Those seem like good strategies. Especially wearing suits in the summer.

Especially in that hot ass gym behind the 9th grade center. It was a lot of fun. I remember between games some parents would say that their son wasn't getting enough touches so we just came up with a new offense for their son for the next game. It was quite fun. It was all on the talent of the kids and not the coaching though.

#TheWesIsTheFuture

The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep · « **Reply #15 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:14:19 PM »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grinnell_System

kso_FAN · « **Reply #16 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:15:41 PM »

CHONGS · « **Reply #17 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:15:57 PM »

Is this true? Is this obvious?

Quote from: Steffy08

I think Self is just stating what is obvious to most people: relying so heavily on three point shooting is less likely to result in a national championship than a team that pounds it inside more. It would be different if we were talking about a league championship or a seven-game series. But the NCAA tournament is one and done.

CHONGS · « **Reply #18 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:17:01 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 11, 2015, 02:15:41 PM

I actually wonder if 3PA% is not as interesting as the percent of points that come from 3. In this case we would really be talking about "reliance" on 3.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #19 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:21:50 PM »

True, but then you'd have to check variation on FTRs as well. Some teams have offenses that draw fouls and FTs more than others. Some teams play more close games so they get fouled more at the end. Etc.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #20 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:27:27 PM »

Quote from: The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep on February 11, 2015, 02:14:19 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grinnell_System

kso_FAN · « **Reply #21 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:32:23 PM »

Quote from: MakeItRain on February 11, 2015, 02:27:27 PM

Quote from: The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep on February 11, 2015, 02:14:19 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grinnell_System

http://www.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24249089/not-easy-for-grinnell-gunner-to-score-100plus-till-coach-makes-it-so

http://www.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24249295/you-never-know-who-the-voice-of-grinnell-college-hoops-is-these-days

TownieCat · « **Reply #22 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:36:40 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 11, 2015, 02:15:41 PM

Is there any way to add FTR on there too? That graph can be a bit deceiving because you lose a lot more 2PTA due to fouls than you do 3PTA.

The one that really sticks out is the 07 Florida team that also had a 43.8% FTR.

Skipper44 · « **Reply #23 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:48:35 PM »

Quote from: Steffy08

I think Self is just stating what is obvious to most people: relying so heavily on three point shooting is less likely to result in a national championship than a team that pounds it inside more. It would be different if we were talking about a league championship or a seven-game series. But the NCAA tournament is one and done.

By and large, it is easier to find players and develop players that can shoot the 3 than it is to find guys that can score inside. Not only are those guys hard to find they are also the fastest to leave and Cal appears to be able to get 2 or 3 of the maybe 10 in a recruiting class to come to Kentucky. You really have to be a blue blood to think playing inside-out is the best way to win.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #24 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:53:35 PM »

Quote from: Skipper44 on February 11, 2015, 02:48:35 PM

Quote from: Steffy08
I think Self is just stating what is obvious to most people: relying so heavily on three point shooting is less likely to result in a national championship than a team that pounds it inside more. It would be different if we were talking about a league championship or a seven-game series. But the NCAA tournament is one and done.
By and large, it is easier to find players and develop players that can shoot the 3 than it is to find guys that can score inside. Not only are those guys hard to find they are also the fastest to leave and Cal appears to be able to get 2 or 3 of the maybe 10 in a recruiting class to come to Kentucky. You really have to be a blue blood to think playing inside-out is the best way to win.

Yes, getting big people who can really play, especially several big people that can really play, is a big point of separation in basketball. It is for football too, especially with defensive linemen.