As most of the prognosticators break down this game and (mainly) look at the traditional stats, it looks to be evenly matched. #6 vs #7 in the CFP rankings. #2 vs #4 in the Big 12 in scoring offense. #1 vs #4 in scoring defense. #2 vs #6 in total offense. #1 vs #4 in total defense. For those comprehensive stats the defensive numbers favor the Cats while the offensive numbers favor TCU and some of that is due to differences in pace. TCU runs 13 more plays per game on offense compared to K-State while TCU's defense defends 11 more plays per game. However, even when we account for pace, TCU still has the offensive advantage (6.7 YPP/.587 PPP compared to 6.0 YPP/.519 PPP) while K-State has the defensive advantage (4.8 YPP/.282 PPP compared to 5.0 YPP/.294 PPP). TCU leads the league in nearly every category about forcing TOs. They also lead in opponent 3rd down %, rushes and total plays gained of 20 yards or more, and they haven't allowed a punt return of over 20 yards this season. Meanwhile, the Cats have the fewest penalties, lead in 3rd down %, redzone % and opponent's redzone %. They also have allowed the fewest plays and runs of 20 yards or more, plus lead the league in punt returns of 20 yards or more and have allowed only 1 KO return of over 30 yards all season.
However, when you look at some more advanced possession based stats, there are some areas where K-State has an advantage, notably
explosive drives (drives where the offense averages 10 YPP or more) and
value drives (drives where the offense reaches at least the opponent's 30 yard line).
The Cats are explosive on 19.1% of their drives (#21 nationally) this season while the Frogs allow opponents to be explosive on 16.5% of their drives (#94). Granted, TCU is one of the more explosive teams (20.2% of drives, #14), but K-State's defense doesn't give them up (5.7% of drives, #7). The Cats have value drives 55.7% of the time (#5) while TCU gives them up 32.2% of the time (#40). Based on these numbers, K-State should be able to gain an advantage in both. K-State is likely to have an explosive drive or two while also having value drives that at least help them with field position. Note that both teams are similar in avoiding 3 and outs (First down rate), but the Cats have a slight advantage.
That gets us to special teams and field position.
The interesting thing about this is that TCU is great at gaining field position, but not as good overall on special teams. The key then is turnovers and TCU is one of the best in the nation at forcing those.
However, K-State is one of the best at not turning the ball over, so the net effect is pretty neutral if season long trends hold. TCU's biggest advantage comes on short fields from the 2nd chart, but that advantage is predicated on them creating turnovers, not on big special teams plays. As the Special Teams chart shows, K-State holds the advantage in nearly every area, especially with both return units. The only area that looks to be a big TCU advantage is FG kicking and while TCU has a very good kicker, K-State looks to be better than they appear after the change from the disastrous Auburn game.
So what's that mean for Saturday? It appears that if K-State can avoid turnovers (at least stay even), the strengths of this team on offense can take advantage of a couple weaknesses for TCU on defense. Plus, K-State has better overall special teams which will be big in a road game. I have a lot of respect for Patterson finally adjusting and finding a way to win in the Big 12, but I think Snyder has the better team. K-State dictates tempo and avoids the turnovers that TCU feeds off of while the Wildcat defense slows TCU's offense and frustrates Boykin.
Cats 38 - Frogs 34
