Midterm Predicto Thread

[puniraptor]

I can't help but feel a little bit happy for all the ODBs strutting around the office today with creamed trousers.

[TBL]

Grats to Oregon and DC

They may have legalized it, but in reality, no one can afford to go into business selling it. Not with the IRS taxing the businesses at a 80-90% tax rate.

[MakeItRain]

Grats to Oregon and DC

They may have legalized it, but in reality, no one can afford to go into business selling it. Not with the IRS taxing the businesses at a 80-90% tax rate.

I'm not sure potheads care

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

[Taps plays softly in the background...]

In a solemn ceremony, Charlie Crist's fan was unplugged for the final time following his brief concession speech. In keeping with Mr. Crist's wishes, the fan will be cremated and its ashes interred at Arlington National Cemetary, where it will soon be joined by Barack Obama's teleprompter.



 

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

[Taps plays softly in the background...]

In a solemn ceremony, Charlie Crist's fan was unplugged for the final time following his brief concession speech. In keeping with Mr. Crist's wishes, the fan will be cremated and its ashes interred at Arlington National Cemetary, where it will soon be joined by Barack Obama's teleprompter.



 

I feel for him, I have a fan just like that. Sad.

[Rage Against the McKee]

You mean the guy who refused to debate because his opponent was given a fan won?

[CNS]

Some of you guys latch on to the weirdest stuff.  Fans, teleprompters, etc.  So weird.

[Rage Against the McKee]

This isn't something weird to latch onto, CNS. It's hilarious.

[CNS]

No, Scott just belongs into the group of "some of you guys" I formed in my statement.

[MakeItRain]

Scott got a bad rap on that. Crist knew what the hell he was doing, he pulled the same thing during a republican primary debate, back when he was a republican. Scott's problem is that he handled it like a 3 year old child. If he was a boss he just would have went out without having a tantrum and explained to the moderators and the audience that Crist was breaking an agreed upon rule and explain why it was a problem. Even when Crist was talking before Scott came out you could hear the dumb fan in the microphone and it was annoying.

[EllRobersonisInnocent]

Grats to Oregon and DC

They may have legalized it, but in reality, no one can afford to go into business selling it. Not with the IRS taxing the businesses at a 80-90% tax rate.

You don't know what you are talking about so I ask you kindly to shut the eff up.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

It was not a very good night for most pollsters. The RCP polling averages in many races scewed Democrat by 6-10 points.

[MakeItRain]

It was not a very good night for most pollsters. The RCP polling averages in many races scewed Democrat by 6-10 points.

That isn't at all true and easily verifiable. You are a compulsive liar.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

MIR literally has no idea what he's talking about, but continues to to chime in. This is really bizarre

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

It was not a very good night for most pollsters. The RCP polling averages in many races scewed Democrat by 6-10 points.

That isn't at all true and easily verifiable. You are a compulsive liar.

Ummm.Would you simply believe this Politco piece? http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2014-midterms-polls-112593.html

The polls were wrong. And so were the predictions about how the polls would be wrong. Instead of being biased against Democrats, who still hoped they could overcome modest deficits in a number of states, the surveys of the 2014 Senate landscape turned out to have significantly underestimated Republicans.
 
The GOP won resoundingly in races where it led only narrowly in the polls, and the party also put into play contests its own strategists thought would be out of reach. Democrats, who had insisted the polls were stacked against them, were crushed in races they thought were competitive.
 
The results were another black eye for pollsters in what are already some tough times. Just five months after then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s surprise ouster, it was another out-of-nowhere Virginia race that left political observers scratching their heads.
 
And as Americans become even harder to reach by phone – and emerging methodologies, such as Internet polling, remain unproven – the poor performance of pollsters this year casts serious doubt on the reliability of surveys during the 2016 presidential race.
 
Republicans nearly swept the 10 Senate races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report on Election Day, winning seven of the 10 outright – they lost New Hampshire, Alaska remains undecided and Louisiana is going to a runoff.
 
But it wasn’t that Republicans won so many of the most competitive races — it was how much they won by.
 
Tom Cotton (Ark.), David Perdue (Ga.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Pat Roberts (Kan.) and Mitch McConnell (Ky.) all blew out their opponents, despite polls showing much closer contests.
 ...
In Arkansas, Cotton beat Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by a 17-point margin. That capped a startling end to Pryor’s once-charmed political career – Republicans didn’t even run a candidate against him six years ago. The breadth of Cotton’s victory was all the more impressive when stacked against the freshman GOP congressman’s 7-point lead in the final RealClearPolitics average on Election Day. (Credit goes to the University of Arkansas, whose 13-point spread for Cotton represented the only survey to show him leading Pryor by more than 8 points.)
 
In Georgia, Perdue cleared the 50-percent threshold to avoid a runoff and romped over Democrat Michelle Nunn, 53 percent to 45 percent. But the final RCP average showed Perdue with just a 3-point lead in the polls.
 
While polls didn’t project Perdue’s margin, they did show him closing in the final weeks of the campaign. Nunn was tied or led in seven consecutive mid-October polls, but Perdue claimed the late momentum, leading in nine of the final 10 polls. Still, no survey showed him with a lead larger than four points.
 
Iowa’s Joni Ernst was yet another Republican underestimated by the polls: The final RCP average had her up by 2.3 points, far lower than the 8.5-point margin by which she beat Democratic Rep. oscar Braley.

The average is a little misleading, however. Most polls showed the race tied, or Ernst with the slightest of edges. But the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, conducted by West Des Moines-based pollster J. Ann Selzer, put Ernst up by a 7-point margin, 51 percent to 44 percent. Ernst won, 52 percent to 44 percent.
 
Democrats pilloried Selzer’s poll, pointing out – with some justification, given the other seven surveys conducted over the final week showed results that ranged from Braley ahead by 1 to Ernst up by 3. But Selzer, who has polled for the Register for decades and most recently accurately predicted President Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, proved again why she is the gold standard in the Hawkeye State.
 
Kansas was always a difficult dynamic for pollsters. Republicans haven’t lost a Senate election there since the Great Depression, and independent Greg Orman — who doesn’t have a natural constituency — presents a unique challenge.
 
But the polls, both public and private, missed badly. Orman entered Election Day with a negligible, 0.8-point lead in the RCP average. Not only did GOP Sen. Pat Roberts win by nearly 11 points, but Republican Gov. Sam Brownback – whom some GOPers had left for dead – also won reelection.
 
Polls in Kentucky had moved toward Mitch McConnell in recent weeks, but no survey showed the likely new Senate majority leader up double digits, let alone leading by the 15.5-point margin by which he beat Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes on Tuesday.
 
In Louisiana, the RCP average showed Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 5.7 points ahead of GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy. While both candidates still made the runoff, Landrieu’s margin was just one point.
 
Polls in three other competitive Senate races – Alaska, Colorado and North Carolina – also exhibited a Democratic bias. While the difference was less dramatic, Sen.-elect Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) victory is considered a modest surprise because of Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan’s slight lead in the polls.
 
In only one of the 10 most competitive Senate races were polls too optimistic for Republicans: New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen won with a larger cushion than polls had indicated.
 
Virginia wasn’t on anyone’s watch-list going into Tuesday, with polls — outside of a survey from GOP robopollster Vox Populi — showing Democratic Sen. Mark Warner with a comfortable lead. Warner had a lead of 9.7 points in the final RCP average; he’s currently up by less than a point as a possible recount looms.
 
Part of the problem with Virginia — and neighboring Maryland, where Republican Larry Hogan was the upset winner of the state’s gubernatorial race — was an overall lack of public telephone polling. Two colleges polled Virginia Senate in the final two weeks, finding Warner ahead by 12 and 7 points.
 
Virginia was the scene of the most shocking upset of the entire cycle, when Cantor went down — by a lot, and to the humiliation of his unprepared campaign — to virtual unknown Dave Brat in the GOP primary. Brat easily defeated Democrat Jack Trammell in the conservative district in Tuesday’s general election.
 
In Maryland, The Washington Post and Baltimore Sun surveyed the race in early October, finding Brown ahead in the high single digits. But the only other phone polls came from the state GOP or Hogan’s campaign.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

And here is a comparison of final results to RCP averages in the 11 Senate races judged to be "toss-ups" or "lean republican/dem":

State	RCP Average	Actual Result	Dem Skew
Virginia	Warner (D) +9.7	Warner (D) +0.8	Dem +8.9
Alaska	Sullivan (R) +2.4	Sullivan (R) +3.7	Dem +1.3
Colorado	Gardner (R) +2.5	Gardner (R) +2.9	Dem +0.4
Georgia	Perdue (R) +3.0	Perdue (R) +7.9	Dem +4.9
Iowa	Ernst (R) +2.3	Ernst (R) +8.5	Dem +6.2
Kansas	Orman (D) +0.8	Roberts (R) +10.8	Dem +11.6
Louisiana	Landrieu (D) +5.7	Landrieu (D) +1.2	Dem +4.5
North Carolina	Hagan (D) +0.7	Tillis (R) +1.7	Dem +2.4
Arkansas	Cotton (R) +7.0	Cotton (R) +17.0	Dem +10.0
Kentucky	McConnell (R) +7.2	McConnell (R) +15.5	Dem +8.3
New Hampshire	Shaheen (D) +0.8	Shaheen (D) +3.2	Dem -2.4
Average			Dem +5.1

A number of governor races were also badly skewed in favor of the Dems, including Kansas, Illinois, Massachussettes, Connecticut, and Maryland.

[gatoveintisiete]

I've never been more sure that mir is dumb.

[MakeItRain]

It was not a very good night for most pollsters. The RCP polling averages in many races scewed Democrat by 6-10 points.

That isn't at all true and easily verifiable. You are a compulsive liar.

Ummm.Would you simply believe this Politco piece? http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2014-midterms-polls-112593.html

The polls were wrong. And so were the predictions about how the polls would be wrong. Instead of being biased against Democrats, who still hoped they could overcome modest deficits in a number of states, the surveys of the 2014 Senate landscape turned out to have significantly underestimated Republicans.
 
The GOP won resoundingly in races where it led only narrowly in the polls, and the party also put into play contests its own strategists thought would be out of reach. Democrats, who had insisted the polls were stacked against them, were crushed in races they thought were competitive.
 
The results were another black eye for pollsters in what are already some tough times. Just five months after then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s surprise ouster, it was another out-of-nowhere Virginia race that left political observers scratching their heads.
 
And as Americans become even harder to reach by phone – and emerging methodologies, such as Internet polling, remain unproven – the poor performance of pollsters this year casts serious doubt on the reliability of surveys during the 2016 presidential race.
 
Republicans nearly swept the 10 Senate races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report on Election Day, winning seven of the 10 outright – they lost New Hampshire, Alaska remains undecided and Louisiana is going to a runoff.
 
But it wasn’t that Republicans won so many of the most competitive races — it was how much they won by.
 
Tom Cotton (Ark.), David Perdue (Ga.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Pat Roberts (Kan.) and Mitch McConnell (Ky.) all blew out their opponents, despite polls showing much closer contests.
 ...
In Arkansas, Cotton beat Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by a 17-point margin. That capped a startling end to Pryor’s once-charmed political career – Republicans didn’t even run a candidate against him six years ago. The breadth of Cotton’s victory was all the more impressive when stacked against the freshman GOP congressman’s 7-point lead in the final RealClearPolitics average on Election Day. (Credit goes to the University of Arkansas, whose 13-point spread for Cotton represented the only survey to show him leading Pryor by more than 8 points.)
 
In Georgia, Perdue cleared the 50-percent threshold to avoid a runoff and romped over Democrat Michelle Nunn, 53 percent to 45 percent. But the final RCP average showed Perdue with just a 3-point lead in the polls.
 
While polls didn’t project Perdue’s margin, they did show him closing in the final weeks of the campaign. Nunn was tied or led in seven consecutive mid-October polls, but Perdue claimed the late momentum, leading in nine of the final 10 polls. Still, no survey showed him with a lead larger than four points.
 
Iowa’s Joni Ernst was yet another Republican underestimated by the polls: The final RCP average had her up by 2.3 points, far lower than the 8.5-point margin by which she beat Democratic Rep. oscar Braley.

The average is a little misleading, however. Most polls showed the race tied, or Ernst with the slightest of edges. But the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, conducted by West Des Moines-based pollster J. Ann Selzer, put Ernst up by a 7-point margin, 51 percent to 44 percent. Ernst won, 52 percent to 44 percent.
 
Democrats pilloried Selzer’s poll, pointing out – with some justification, given the other seven surveys conducted over the final week showed results that ranged from Braley ahead by 1 to Ernst up by 3. But Selzer, who has polled for the Register for decades and most recently accurately predicted President Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, proved again why she is the gold standard in the Hawkeye State.
 
Kansas was always a difficult dynamic for pollsters. Republicans haven’t lost a Senate election there since the Great Depression, and independent Greg Orman — who doesn’t have a natural constituency — presents a unique challenge.
 
But the polls, both public and private, missed badly. Orman entered Election Day with a negligible, 0.8-point lead in the RCP average. Not only did GOP Sen. Pat Roberts win by nearly 11 points, but Republican Gov. Sam Brownback – whom some GOPers had left for dead – also won reelection.
 
Polls in Kentucky had moved toward Mitch McConnell in recent weeks, but no survey showed the likely new Senate majority leader up double digits, let alone leading by the 15.5-point margin by which he beat Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes on Tuesday.
 
In Louisiana, the RCP average showed Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 5.7 points ahead of GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy. While both candidates still made the runoff, Landrieu’s margin was just one point.
 
Polls in three other competitive Senate races – Alaska, Colorado and North Carolina – also exhibited a Democratic bias. While the difference was less dramatic, Sen.-elect Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) victory is considered a modest surprise because of Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan’s slight lead in the polls.
 
In only one of the 10 most competitive Senate races were polls too optimistic for Republicans: New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen won with a larger cushion than polls had indicated.
 
Virginia wasn’t on anyone’s watch-list going into Tuesday, with polls — outside of a survey from GOP robopollster Vox Populi — showing Democratic Sen. Mark Warner with a comfortable lead. Warner had a lead of 9.7 points in the final RCP average; he’s currently up by less than a point as a possible recount looms.
 
Part of the problem with Virginia — and neighboring Maryland, where Republican Larry Hogan was the upset winner of the state’s gubernatorial race — was an overall lack of public telephone polling. Two colleges polled Virginia Senate in the final two weeks, finding Warner ahead by 12 and 7 points.
 
Virginia was the scene of the most shocking upset of the entire cycle, when Cantor went down — by a lot, and to the humiliation of his unprepared campaign — to virtual unknown Dave Brat in the GOP primary. Brat easily defeated Democrat Jack Trammell in the conservative district in Tuesday’s general election.
 
In Maryland, The Washington Post and Baltimore Sun surveyed the race in early October, finding Brown ahead in the high single digits. But the only other phone polls came from the state GOP or Hogan’s campaign.

Yes fuckhead, you lied just like I said. Even using your posts here there were all of 4 polls that skewed democrat by 6% or more 4. There is no scope at all that you can use where four equals many. Not to mention that 3 of those 4 results, they got right. They fell into your dumb perimeters in 4 out of 54 races that they tracked and missed 1 of 54. Many races The pollsters did fine as evidenced by everyone projecting that the Republicans would take over the senate and the Democrats playing the blame game as early as last weekend. Greg Orman isn't a democrat nor does he have a D next to his name on RCP. Like I said you are a pathological liar.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Yes fuckhead, you lied just like I said. Even using your posts here there were all of 4 polls that skewed democrat by 6% or more 4. There is no scope at all that you can use where four equals many. Not to mention that 3 of those 4 results, they got right. They fell into your dumb perimeters in 4 out of 54 races that they tracked and missed 1 of 54. Many races The pollsters did fine as evidenced by everyone projecting that the Republicans would take over the senate and the Democrats playing the blame game as early as last weekend. Greg Orman isn't a democrat nor does he have a D next to his name on RCP. Like I said you are a pathological liar.

The really funny part is that you're being serious. You should make your case to liberal-leaning pollster PPP - they seem to think that they and other pollsters blew it.

PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls  ·  Nov 4

And also that polls finding electorate closer to 12 than 10 (including us) were probably off on that. May have needed stricter screen (2/2)0 replies8 retweets3 favorites

PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls  ·  Nov 4

Think the reason for polls being too pro-Dem probably a mix of undecideds breaking away from President's party (1 of 2)0 replies13 retweets2 favorites

PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls  ·  Nov 4

Part of the explanation as we try to figure out what happened in NC and elsewhere in the coming days- Obama approval w/undecided was 13/640 replies30 retweets7 favorites

PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls  ·  Nov 4

Clearly a rough night for us and much of the polling industry and we'll own that and try to figure out what happened in the coming days

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

Again, in the polls of the Senate races that really mattered - the 11 races with at least a chance of flipping - the polling averages skewed Democrat by more than 4 points in 7 of them. Half of those polls were skewed by more than 6 points. The average skew for all 11 races was 5.1 points. In only 1 of those races were the polls (narrowly) skewed Republican.

And, again, this does not include the numerous governor races which were also badly skewed.

But I'm the "pathological liar."

[MakeItRain]

Keep moving those chains. You keep exaggerating or outright lying, I prove your bullshit and you try to reconfigure your stance.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Keep moving those chains. You keep exaggerating or outright lying, I prove your bullshit and you try to reconfigure your stance.

The ruling on the field is that KSUdub is "trying to reconfigure his stance." That call is under further review.

It was not a very good night for most pollsters. The RCP polling averages in many races skewed Democrat by 6-10 points.

After further review, there is no foul. KSUdub said that "many races skewed Democrat by 6-10 points" and that's exactly what happened, so much so that even a well-respected polling firm publicly apologized for it, and other firms, being so far off. MIR is a dumbass who doesn't know when to quit digging.

[MakeItRain]

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Make that 54. DSCC is pulling up stakes in the LA runoff. http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/392277/dscc-decides-louisiana-runoff-isnt-worth-18-million-jim-geraghty

[renocat]

Does anyonr know what happen to the Obamacare condom Queen.  I thought she was running for office in CA.   If so,  her party balloon probably broke, and she lost.  (Pregnant pause) Oh boo hoo.

[renocat]

Sandra Fluke.  Jousted verbally with Limbaugh about  free condoms, and became a media darling.  she lost her race for CA state senate by 22%. Her district is wes  Los Angeles; ground zero for liberal nuts.