2014-2015 Big 12 Preview

[Mixed-Nutz]

Here is a very good Big 12 preview for this season. Guy really gets all the positive momentum we could have coming in to the season.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/234967/College-Basketball-Preview-14-15-Big-12-Conference

Kansas St and Oklahoma: My model has Oklahoma lower than just about every preseason poll. But let me explain why I think Kansas St., a team that finished two games behind Oklahoma in the Big 12 standings, may be the better team in 2014-15.

Roster Changes: Kansas St. loses Will Spradling who was a quality three point gunner for four seasons. But Kansas St. can replace Spradling with Maine transfer Hopper. The “smart” fans immediate reaction may be that this is a downgrade because Edwards was far less efficient than Spradling. But that ignores the importance of shot volume. Edwards played on a bad Maine team and had to take a ton of shots. He used 32% of his team’s possessions when on the floor. Edwards will get to be much more selective at Kansas St. and that will help his efficiency tremendously. Spradling used just 14% of the possessions for Kansas St. and Edwards diverse offensive skillset will not be a downgrade.

Kansas St. also loses Shane Southwell. But the team adds Top 10 JUCO recruit Big Meat, who was the freshman of the year in the A-Sun a couple of year ago. Hurt is more of a center (more on this in a moment), but if Kansas St. needs traditional wing players, Nino Williams was very efficient reserve last season. Kansas St. also adds forwards Malek Harris and Branden Bolden. Harris isn’t ranked in the Top 100, so he is not a guarantee, but Rivals and Scout were particularly fond of his game. Bolden is a transfer from Georgetown who did little with his former team, but perhaps the change of scenery will benefit him.

Because of Edwards and Hurt, my model does not see a downgrade for Kansas St.’s lineup.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma loses reserve guard Je’lon Hornbeak. The Cowboys add JUCO Dinjiyl Walker as a replacement. Walker is a bit of a risk, since JUCO players at his level don’t always translate, but it isn’t a stretch to think he can replace Hornbeak as a reserve. Even if he cannot, Frank Booker can easily expand his role from last season.

The bigger question will be Oklahoma’s forward rotation. Last year Cameron Clark played major minutes at the 4-slot. Clark was not only one of Oklahoma’s most efficient players, he was also Oklahoma’s most aggressive offensive player. That means other players will have to shoot more now that Clark is gone, which could hurt their efficiency. Oklahoma also loses forward Tyler Neal.

Oklahoma’s replacements at this point are Dante Buford and Khadeem Lattin. ESPN liked them both (though Rivals and Scout were not as high on them), but again neither was a Top 100 recruit. The downgrade from Cam Clark to these freshmen is significant and meaningful.

Advantage: Kansas St.

Growth potential: Both teams appear to downgrade their perimeter shooting with these changes, which may hurt their overall floor spacing. Additionally, while most of the teams in the Top 25 are filled with Top 100 recruits, (an average of five and a half per Top 25 team), Kansas St. and Oklahoma have zero players who were consensus Top 100 recruits out of high school.

What that means for projection purposes is that the incumbent players may not have a ton of room to grow. Oklahoma’s Isaiah Cousins was a 2.7 star recruit who saw his ORtg leap from 72 to 112 last year. He was phenomenal, but there is a lot of statistical evidence that Cousins has reached his ceiling. The same can be said of Kansas St.’s senior Thomas Gibson.

The biggest place to expect improvement is with the freshmen. Kansas St. gave major minutes to Marcus Foster, Westicles, Nigel Johnson, and Jevon Thomas, while Oklahoma gave major minutes to Jordan Woodard and Frank Booker. The sophomore leap should benefit all these players, but since Kansas St.’s freshmen played more, they should get a bigger boost from player development.

Advantage: Kansas St.

Defensively, both teams should be better. While Oklahoma’s Cameron Clark played admirably and rebounded extremely well, he was a big guard playing out of position. Meanwhile Kansas St. did not have a single rotation player over 6’7” last season. Height at the center position is a huge factor in a team’s 2 PT FG% defense, and the addition of 6’11” Big Meat should pay huge dividends for the Wildcats.

Advantage: Draw

Overall, my model likes Kansas St. to improve on offense and defense, while Oklahoma should be slightly worse on offense but better on defense. A lot of people will have both teams in their Top 25 this year. And that’s a very defensible position, particularly if you thought Oklahoma was a Top 25 team last year. Since the margin-of-victory numbers suggest Oklahoma was really only the 33rd best team in the nation last year, my model has the Sooners just outside the Top 25.

The Sooners do have one ace in the hole that could turn the tide. Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas joined the team this summer. Thomas has filed a waiver and applied for immediate eligibility. If Thomas becomes available as a replacement for Clark, Oklahoma is inarguably a Top 25 team.

But I am not crediting this because I have yet to hear a good reason why Thomas’ wavier would be approved. Thomas is not a graduate transfer. He is not moving closer to home for an ill relative. His former school is not banned from the NCAA tournament. His former coach was not accused of misconduct. His former coach did resign, but I don’t see the precedent for that kind of waiver approval, and I think the odds are against Thomas suiting up in 2014-15.

[Mr Bread]

He calls Oklahoma the cowboys and he says Harris wasn't top 100 (Rivals #80; 247 composite #95).

[pissclams]

that + he calls spradling a gunner

[Mr Bread]

I don't think this guy has dossier one on Big 12 hoops. 

[pissclams]

dossier work is hard work, that's what makes me the best in the biz at dossier development.

truth be told? i'm not afraid to spend the hours dedicated to studying tapes and traveling to an endless amount of high school and aau gyms.
but at the end of the day, i invest most of my dossier time on a factor that i just call "gut feel". 

[ChiComCat]

Pffft at you idiots clowning on this guy.  Do you think you could write on the internet?  This guy not only has the chops to write on the internet, he has the chops to write for basketball.realgm.com - the premier website for people pretending to be the GM of sports that do not have GMs.  Where else can you vote on the strength of the Pelican's offseason?  Do you want to vote on the strength of the Pelicans offseason?  Not really?  I can't blame you but if you change your mind, you know where to go.  And while you are there, go ahead and check out that article by Dan Hanner, internet writer.

[Mixed-Nutz]

I think he miscues on some of the smaller details but really hits the head on the hammer with some of the bigger concepts. I think Mr. Hanner had a good idea what some of the Big 12 teams deficiency were last year and how they can and can't be fixed.

1. Texas seems to be a solid team coming back, But I think they will have trouble adding scoring this year. I really don't like the guard depth they have built. Will have over the top depth and talent in the front court.

2. ISU is a wait and see project. Way to many pieces coming and going.

3. K-State had huge holes in its roster last year at the post and picked up 2 centers pushing 7' footers. Also losing Sprads and Shane good be addition by subtraction when considering the pieces that are replacing them. Sophomore development could make K-State's team this year.

4. Oklahoma might be too hyped, sneaky lost a lot of talent.

5. Ford and Drews are going to Ford and Drew.

[Mr Bread]

Shane and Will could suck, but whoever replaces them has to shoot as good or better from three or oscar's offense will struggle.  260 3pt attempts between them at 33.5%.  Who covers that? 

Westicles a bit.  Nigel and Edwards if they're not still shitty at shooting threes (27.4% and 27.3% respectively).  Sure as hell not Thomas.  If Edwards and Nigel don't get over 30%, that's going to be a big problem imo.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Foster's go down a bit too.  40% with as many attempts as he takes and how much attention he'll be getting from defenses is awfully tough. 

[ksupamplemousse]

Shane and Will could suck, but whoever replaces them has to shoot as good or better from three or oscar's offense will struggle.  260 3pt attempts between them at 33.5%.  Who covers that? 

Westicles a bit.  Nigel and Edwards if they're not still shitty at shooting threes (27.4% and 27.3% respectively).  Sure as hell not Thomas.  If Edwards and Nigel don't get over 30%, that's going to be a big problem imo.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Foster's go down a bit too.  40% with as many attempts as he takes and how much attention he'll be getting from defenses is awfully tough.

Lots of young guards/swingmen on this team. Count me in on team #somebodywillgetmuchbetterfrombehindthearc...if that doesn't happen though, we're definitely mumped.

[Panjandrum]

I think he miscues on some of the smaller details but really hits the head on the hammer with some of the bigger concepts. I think Mr. Hanner had a good idea what some of the Big 12 teams deficiency were last year and how they can and can't be fixed.

1. Texas seems to be a solid team coming back, But I think they will have trouble adding scoring this year. I really don't like the guard depth they have built. Will have over the top depth and talent in the front court.

2. ISU is a wait and see project. Way to many pieces coming and going.

3. K-State had huge holes in its roster last year at the post and picked up 2 centers pushing 7' footers. Also losing Sprads and Shane good be addition by subtraction when considering the pieces that are replacing them. Sophomore development could make K-State's team this year.

4. Oklahoma might be too hyped, sneaky lost a lot of talent.

5. Ford and Drews are going to Ford and Drew.

I don't think we can call ISU a wait and see project any more.  There's generally pretty good data that Hoiberg is going to put together a good roster that will compete at a high level.

We could be a lot better and still finish fifth.

[Mixed-Nutz]

Shane and Will could suck, but whoever replaces them has to shoot as good or better from three or oscar's offense will struggle.  260 3pt attempts between them at 33.5%.  Who covers that? 

Westicles a bit.  Nigel and Edwards if they're not still shitty at shooting threes (27.4% and 27.3% respectively).  Sure as hell not Thomas.  If Edwards and Nigel don't get over 30%, that's going to be a big problem imo.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Foster's go down a bit too.  40% with as many attempts as he takes and how much attention he'll be getting from defenses is awfully tough.

Sources have been humming about Edwards deadeye from behind the arc. Don't think Westicles will make enough progress shooting this year. Do believe Nigel is a far better shooter then he displayed last year. Big question if the coaching staff can finally increase the teams offensive efficiently via transition. Also last year the staff tweak the offense towards more pick and roll situations then oscar has done in the past. I don't think you will see us going away from that.

[Mr Bread]

Shane and Will could suck, but whoever replaces them has to shoot as good or better from three or oscar's offense will struggle.  260 3pt attempts between them at 33.5%.  Who covers that? 

Westicles a bit.  Nigel and Edwards if they're not still shitty at shooting threes (27.4% and 27.3% respectively).  Sure as hell not Thomas.  If Edwards and Nigel don't get over 30%, that's going to be a big problem imo.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Foster's go down a bit too.  40% with as many attempts as he takes and how much attention he'll be getting from defenses is awfully tough.

Lots of young guards/swingmen on this team. Count me in on team #somebodywillgetmuchbetterfrombehindthearc...if that doesn't happen though, we're definitely mumped.

Yep.  In oscar's first year the go purples were 36.2% on 658 attempts and they won a bunch.  Last season they were 33.1% on 598 attempts and won less. 

Illinois was 30.4% on 611 attempts in oscar's last year, which was an abortion of a season.  32.1% on 873 () attempts the next year and 31.7% on 662 attempts last year.  It mumping sucks not having good three-point shooters.  oscar didn't leave any.

This year we should have four good ones rough ridin' finally.  Cosby (40.0%), Starks (39.5%), Nunn (38.8%) and Hill (34.1%), which means we will win more.  #mumpyeah

[Mixed-Nutz]

I think he miscues on some of the smaller details but really hits the head on the hammer with some of the bigger concepts. I think Mr. Hanner had a good idea what some of the Big 12 teams deficiency were last year and how they can and can't be fixed.

1. Texas seems to be a solid team coming back, But I think they will have trouble adding scoring this year. I really don't like the guard depth they have built. Will have over the top depth and talent in the front court.

2. ISU is a wait and see project. Way to many pieces coming and going.

3. K-State had huge holes in its roster last year at the post and picked up 2 centers pushing 7' footers. Also losing Sprads and Shane good be addition by subtraction when considering the pieces that are replacing them. Sophomore development could make K-State's team this year.

4. Oklahoma might be too hyped, sneaky lost a lot of talent.

5. Ford and Drews are going to Ford and Drew.

I don't think we can call ISU a wait and see project any more.  There's generally pretty good data that Hoiberg is going to put together a good roster that will compete at a high level.

We could be a lot better and still finish fifth.

Fair enough, but Fred has been 11-7 in conference play the last two years. He isn't really setting the world on fire. Media loves him, think he is overrated but yea he has a sexy brand of basketball.

[Mr Bread]

Shane and Will could suck, but whoever replaces them has to shoot as good or better from three or oscar's offense will struggle.  260 3pt attempts between them at 33.5%.  Who covers that? 

Westicles a bit.  Nigel and Edwards if they're not still shitty at shooting threes (27.4% and 27.3% respectively).  Sure as hell not Thomas.  If Edwards and Nigel don't get over 30%, that's going to be a big problem imo.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Foster's go down a bit too.  40% with as many attempts as he takes and how much attention he'll be getting from defenses is awfully tough.

Sources have been humming about Edwards deadeye from behind the arc. Don't think Westicles will make enough progress shooting this year. Do believe Nigel is a far better shooter then he displayed last year. Big question if the coaching staff can finally increase the teams offensive efficiently via transition. Also last year the staff tweak the offense towards more pick and roll situations then oscar has done in the past. I don't think you will see us going away from that.

oscar used the pick and pop (and roll) constantly when McCamey was a junior and senior (2009-10 and 2010-11). 

[SdK]

that + he calls spradling a gunner

Machine gunner

[Mixed-Nutz]

Shane and Will could suck, but whoever replaces them has to shoot as good or better from three or oscar's offense will struggle.  260 3pt attempts between them at 33.5%.  Who covers that? 

Westicles a bit.  Nigel and Edwards if they're not still shitty at shooting threes (27.4% and 27.3% respectively).  Sure as hell not Thomas.  If Edwards and Nigel don't get over 30%, that's going to be a big problem imo.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Foster's go down a bit too.  40% with as many attempts as he takes and how much attention he'll be getting from defenses is awfully tough.

Sources have been humming about Edwards deadeye from behind the arc. Don't think Westicles will make enough progress shooting this year. Do believe Nigel is a far better shooter then he displayed last year. Big question if the coaching staff can finally increase the teams offensive efficiently via transition. Also last year the staff tweak the offense towards more pick and roll situations then oscar has done in the past. I don't think you will see us going away from that.

oscar used the pick and pop (and roll) constantly when McCamey was a junior and senior (2009-10 and 2010-11).

Do Illinois fans like McCamey? I do think he ever did a good job helping his team win.

[Mr Bread]

Shane and Will could suck, but whoever replaces them has to shoot as good or better from three or oscar's offense will struggle.  260 3pt attempts between them at 33.5%.  Who covers that? 

Westicles a bit.  Nigel and Edwards if they're not still shitty at shooting threes (27.4% and 27.3% respectively).  Sure as hell not Thomas.  If Edwards and Nigel don't get over 30%, that's going to be a big problem imo.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Foster's go down a bit too.  40% with as many attempts as he takes and how much attention he'll be getting from defenses is awfully tough.

Sources have been humming about Edwards deadeye from behind the arc. Don't think Westicles will make enough progress shooting this year. Do believe Nigel is a far better shooter then he displayed last year. Big question if the coaching staff can finally increase the teams offensive efficiently via transition. Also last year the staff tweak the offense towards more pick and roll situations then oscar has done in the past. I don't think you will see us going away from that.

oscar used the pick and pop (and roll) constantly when McCamey was a junior and senior (2009-10 and 2010-11).

Do Illinois fans like McCamey? I do think he ever did a good job helping his team win.

He was very talented.  He didn't have any other good players around him, particularly his junior and senior years.  If he wasn't on those teams oscar would have been fired years earlier.  Too much was asked of him.  He rough ridin' hated oscar at the end I think.