In an effort to cope with the departure of #LiFE, I wanted to use statistics to compare him to other great KSU QBs so I knew exactly what we're losing. The answer? A lot.
TLDR Version: It's possible (likely?) that if Sams had been the full-time starter in 2013 that he would have been the best K-State QB in history by the end of 2015.
Out of 10 comparable seasons of modern KSU QBs, 2013 Daniel Sams had the highest completion percentage, and was 6th place in passing yds, 6th place YPA, 1st rushing yds, 1st in YPR, 3rd in QB rating.
By comparison, Waters was 3rd in completion percentage, 2nd in passing yds, 2nd in YPA, 10th in rushing yds, 10th in YPR, and 2nd in QB rating.
Methodology: Since #LiFE attempted 53 passes in 2013 and rushed 152 times, I used the historical averages of KSU QBs to determine what their effectiveness would have been if they had been given the exact same number of pass/rush attempts as Our Guy. Another way to say it: take each KSU QB's season and reducing their number of pass/rush attempts to the exact same number of opportunities Sams had last year.
Disclaimer: I am not _FAN, nor am I trying to be. He is the best, I am not. I recognize that the methodology used is not perfect. But given the information that Google provides and the amount of time I had, this is the best I could come up with. And I think this methodology is strong enough to develop real conclusions about what we're losing w/ Sams.
Why I did this: Like most of you who aren't total idiots, I had a sad when Sams announced he was transferring, but I wanted to be as objective as possible and try to determine what losing Sams (and not starting him in 2013) actually meant. I also wanted to try look at the Sams/Waters debate through an identical lens. (Obviously that's not totally possible, but this isn't a bad start.)
In the tables below, Our Guy will be highlighted in lavender, because he undoubtedly would look adorable in lavender. Go 'Cats.
Table 1: Statistics of Each KSU QB if they had been given the same opportunities as @DS4ms:
Table 2: Ranking each KSU QB season against each other in every statistical category:
Table 3: KSU QB season, by golf score
This one is obviously a little silly and is more for fun than anything else, but I wanted to see where Sams's 2013 season would rank if you added up all the overall rankings in Table 2, with the lowest score being the best season. (Like golf--lowest score wins.) How did Sams stack up? Pretty good! (Better than Waters.)
Sams vs. Waters:
Waters can move the ball better through the air (3rd in comp%, 2nd in yards passing, 2nd in YPA), whereas Sams is middle of the pack (1st in comp%, 6th in yards passing, 6th in YPA). No surprise.
The big difference comes on the ground. While Sams was a middle of the pack passer and is ranked #1 in both rush yards and YPR, Waters is 10th in rushing. Out of 10.
To put that another way: Sams is a good passer and elite runner. Waters is a great passer and the worst runner (compared to the other 9 seasons).
Conclusion:
Sams as a sophomore was a better rusher in the opportunities given him than any K-State QB ever (including all three of Roberson's season as a starter), and was a comparable passer to Bishop as a junior, or Klein and Beasley as seniors.
With his production last season and potential for growth over the next two years, I cannot believe we didn't start him full-time in 2013 and watch him lead us to back-to-back Dr. Pepps/Searses in 2014 and 2015. I had hoped that doing this analysis would help me get over Sams leaving, but it had just made me even more sad.
RIP, #LiFE. You are loved.
