With spring practices wrapping up across the country, we are putting the final pieces of data together for our annual Football Outsiders projection model for the 2014 season. Factors including five-year program ratings, returning starters, recruiting success and quarterback reliance -- statistical indicators of teams that may take a step forward or step back next season -- all figure prominently into the projection model.
For this series, we ran projections for offensive and defensive efficiency through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings. We then calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected overall regular-season record and the likelihood that each team would claim a conference crown. We also included the likelihood that each team would finish the regular season with one loss or fewer, a likely benchmark for teams to position themselves for a berth in the inaugural national championship playoff.
Today we're looking at the projections for the Big 12. Oklahoma is the preseason favorite to win the conference this year, but a number of pitfalls in the round-robin Big 12 schedule may keep the Sooners out of the national playoff picture.
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1. Oklahoma Sooners
Projected finish: 10-2 (7-2)
Chance to win Big 12: 57 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 44 percent
Bowl game victories don't get to transfer to the next season on the resume, but the Sooners' Sugar Bowl win over Alabama seems to be generating the most buzz for Oklahoma's national championship hopes in 2014. It certainly showcased the Sooners at their program best, a standard they haven't lived up to often enough in recent seasons.
This year's projected conference title will be led by a Sooners defense that returns nine starters, a unit that ranked 10th in forcing opponent three-and-outs last season against a top-25 set of opponent offenses. Home games on the schedule against the three other most likely Big 12 contenders -- Oklahoma State, Baylor and Kansas State -- give the Sooners a significant edge in the conference race. There are enough pitfalls to limit them to 10 wins, however. Oklahoma has six games on the schedule under the 80 percent win likelihood threshold.
2. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Projected finish: 8-4 (6-3)
Chance to win Big 12: 15 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 4 percent
Oklahoma State's program is at a 25-year high, but a plateau is likely, according to our projections. The Cowboys return only nine total starters, and the impact will be felt on both sides of the ball. The defense was outstanding last season (fourth in raw defensive efficiency, third after adjusting for opponent strength) but there are holes to fill all over the field.
Mike Gundy's offenses have thrived in transition before, so it's less of a concern to find replacement weapons in their attack. One of the biggest concerns for Gundy to deal with may be morale. A brutal opener against defending national champion Florida State could get out of hand for a young team, and the Cowboys' ability to shake off a potential blowout will determine how successful they can be in league play.
3. Baylor Bears
Projected finish: 9-3 (6-3)
Chance to win Big 12: 11 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 7 percent
Baylor is also dealing with significant attrition, though the return of quarterback Bryce Petty (No. 2 nationally in yards per attempt, No. 5 nationally in Total QBR) will anchor the frequently explosive offense. Baylor averaged at least 10 yards per play on 28 percent of its drives last season, the third straight year the Bears have ranked among the top 10 in that statistic.
But can they keep that up for a full year? Baylor and Petty were firing on all cylinders through the first half of the season, but Oklahoma State took them down in late November and UCF tripped them up in the Fiesta Bowl. A hot start could be in store again in 2014 (53 percent likelihood of one or zero losses through Nov. 1) but there is a 30 percent chance Baylor will lose three of its final four games (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State).
4. Kansas State Wildcats
Projected finish: 8-4 (6-3)
Chance to win Big 12: 9 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 3 percent
Our projection model almost always underrates Kansas State, a program that doesn't recruit like an elite program but one from which head coach LHC Bill Snyder consistently draws efficient performances. The program-building that Snyder has done at KSU is remarkable, but we don't have a specific factor in the formula to account for his wizardry. We can project that they'll be in the Big 12 mix throughout the year. More than 50 percent of the Wildcats' offensive drives crossed the opponent's 30-yard line in 2013, the second straight season Kansas State had a top-20 mark in that value drive measure.
Kansas State had a rough start, then picked up steam in the second half the season, a story that may play out similarly this year. The Wildcats will be tested early in 2014 with a rare pair of nonconference games against Big Five opponents (Auburn and Utah), though they are more than twice as likely to win both (35 percent) than they are to lose both (16 percent).
5. Texas Longhorns
Projected finish: 7-5 (5-4)
Chance to win Big 12: 4 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 1 percent
The Longhorns played for the national championship five years ago, but their struggles since that point (21 losses in the last four seasons) led to the end of Mack Brown's head coaching tenure and the start of the Charlie Strong era. Texas' offense needs a bit of a jump start (43 percent of available yards earned last year, 81st nationally) and Longhorns fans are hoping new offensive coordinator Joe Wickline's attack with an experienced quarterback in David Ash will provide that spark.
They need to give themselves better field position this year; they started 25 percent of their drives from inside their own 20-yard line in 2013 (106th nationally), and they also ranked 75th in points per long field position drive. The schedule is not conducive to a big run in 2014 (we project Texas to be the underdog in five games and two others are toss-ups), and a recovery of Texas' elite program status is probably a few years away.
6. TCU Horned Frogs
Projected finish: 7-5 (4-5)
Chance to win Big 12: 2 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 1 percent
The Horned Frogs' offense was exceptionally sluggish last season, and a strong defense gets a team only so far in a league with several high-powered offenses. TCU started a total of 28 drives from inside its own 20-yard line last year, and only one of them ended in a score -- a field goal against Oklahoma State. The quarterback situation for the fall remains unsettled: Texas A&M transfer Matt Joeckel just joined the program and will compete with Trevone Boykin for the starting role.
The conference schedule is front-loaded (Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Baylor on consecutive weekends in October) and our projections give the Horned Frogs a 53 percent chance of losing at least three of those first four Big 12 games.
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Projected finish: 7-5 (4-5)
Chance to win Big 12: 2 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
The Red Raiders' exciting 7-0 start to the 2013 season drew lots of attention to the program as one on the rise, but a five-game losing streak to end the regular season didn't do much for Texas Tech's forecast in our projection model. Kliff Kingsbury's offense was good at avoiding three-and-outs (11th nationally), but that early drive success wasn't sustained (41st in available yards earned). A major albatross was special teams, with national rankings in the bottom 25 in punting, punt returns and kickoff returns, and an overall special-teams value lost of 2.3 points per game.
Their swing games this year could have an impact on mere bowl eligibility -- against West Virginia, TCU, Texas and Iowa State, our model gives the Red Raiders a 36 percent chance of winning three of four and a 26 percent chance of losing three of four.
8. Iowa State Cyclones
Projected finish: 5-7 (3-6)
Chance to win Big 12: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
Head coach Paul Rhoads had a winning record in his debut season at Iowa State back in 2009, but his teams have lost at least seven times in every season since. They've frequently been competitive -- four of last year's nine losses came by a single score -- but they are a long way from having any kind of major breakthrough in Big 12 play.
Turnovers did them no favors (0-7 in games in which they had a negative turnover margin), and fixing that issue could push them on the right side of bowl eligibility. But the Cyclones have seven games on their schedule with less than a 30 percent chance of victory in our model, and they have only a 36 percent chance of winning both games against West Virginia and Kansas to boot.
9. West Virginia Mountaineers
Projected finish: 5-7 (3-6)
Chance to win Big 12: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
Dana Holgorsen's trend line in Morgantown is not pretty, and the offensive prowess his teams used to exhibit has all but disappeared. West Virginia averaged only 1.6 points per drive last year (95th nationally), one year after ranking 12th nationally in that stat. None of last season's quarterbacks were able to find much success (combined 54 percent completion rate, 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions) and the starting job is still up for grabs heading into this year.
On top of all of that uncertainty, West Virginia opens the season against Alabama, our preseason No. 1 team, according to the FEI projections. A demoralized start to the season and few easy victories on the schedule could derail the 2014 season and doom Holgorsen's career at West Virginia.
10. Kansas Jayhawks
Projected finish: 3-9 (1-8)
Chance to win Big 12: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
The Jayhawks' program sits at the bottom of the Big 12 barrel once again in our projections; the team has managed only one conference victory in the last three years. Their woes are numerous: Three-and-outs on nearly half their 2013 possessions and a ghastly 0.9 points per drive are nowhere close to where they need to be to compete in league play.
They return more starters than any other Big 12 team, but that alone may manifest in mere incremental improvement with experience. There is little hope in Lawrence this year, and there is a real possibility that the Jayhawks will go winless against FBS opponents (16 percent).
