Author Topic: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)  (Read 213311 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1175 on: December 01, 2015, 04:40:23 PM »
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline TownieCat

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 6993
  • I have no rhythm.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1176 on: December 01, 2015, 04:43:01 PM »
Serious question... Will Price even make 217 regular season starts over the next 7 years?

Offline Cartierfor3

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 27058
  • I just want us all to be buds.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1177 on: December 01, 2015, 04:46:46 PM »
Serious question... Will Price even make 217 regular season starts over the next 7 years?

he's played 7 full healthy seasons and has 213 career starts, so no. like a 5% chance he makes 217 starts the next 7 years

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1178 on: December 01, 2015, 04:53:53 PM »
only if bill james convinces their front office on the 3 man rotation idea.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Online mocat

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 39042
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1179 on: December 01, 2015, 04:57:07 PM »
that is unbelievable to me

why?

the 4 years / $124m of player option part

Offline Cartierfor3

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 27058
  • I just want us all to be buds.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1180 on: December 01, 2015, 05:02:17 PM »
yeah that's bonkers. he has an option for a 4 year deal that is 69 million dollars bigger than the biggest deal in Royals history.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1181 on: December 01, 2015, 05:13:17 PM »
the 4 years / $124m of player option part

i don't think it's much worse (actually prolly better) than a straight 7/215.  if he exercises the option, the red sox get price's presumptive best three years and avoid his presumptive worst four.  there is no more risk than with a straight 7 year contract.

it's only worse for the team (compared to a straight seven year contract, obviously it is worse than a straight three year contract) if you think that price's last four years will have more value than 31/year - which would be a pretty great outcome for boston, if it happened.


"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1182 on: December 01, 2015, 05:16:04 PM »
basically, if you decide to overpay an older player for his last few years in order to his first few years, giving him a player option costs you nothing (and gives you the chance to benefit, if either the player or the market overvalues those last years when it's option decision time).
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline MakeItRain

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 44805
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1183 on: December 01, 2015, 06:04:44 PM »
I first have to separate mt disdain for David Price before I analyze this deal. Frankly I'm not terribly excited about it, it's pretty clear you can win without having to do that and the Red Sox actually have pretty good depth to their system right now so I have a hard time understanding this. I have also been well trained by the old front office thinking about long term pitcher contracts. All that being said I don't think the contract is all that outrageous. He's the first $30 million a year pitcher but he will be far from the last or worst of the batch. It's what the market is and someone was going to give him around that much money. Fact is with the Red Sox struggling the last couple of years, Liverpool not achieving the way the ownership group would like, and their NASCAR team completely in the tank, Fenway Sports Group has a ton of cash and not much recent success so why not spend it?

I don't love David Price and I don't love Dave Dombrowski turning us into free agent mercenaries but it is what it is I guess.

Offline MakeItRain

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 44805
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1184 on: December 01, 2015, 06:08:39 PM »
the 4 years / $124m of player option part

i don't think it's much worse (actually prolly better) than a straight 7/215.  if he exercises the option, the red sox get price's presumptive best three years and avoid his presumptive worst four.  there is no more risk than with a straight 7 year contract.

it's only worse for the team (compared to a straight seven year contract, obviously it is worse than a straight three year contract) if you think that price's last four years will have more value than 31/year - which would be a pretty great outcome for boston, if it happened.



I completely agree with this. I think most itt has completely dismissed the possibility of Price opting out and I and obviously the Red Sox think that Price having three good years is the likely scenario. When that option comes up I bet there will be around 10 or more pitchers making $31/million.

Offline Cartierfor3

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 27058
  • I just want us all to be buds.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1185 on: December 01, 2015, 06:18:29 PM »
Good points, I never imagined Greinke would opt out of his last Dodgers contract, yet here we are.

Offline Phil Titola

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 15255
  • He took it out!
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1186 on: December 03, 2015, 09:27:33 PM »
DBacks going full KU Football

Offline MakeItRain

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 44805
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1187 on: December 04, 2015, 09:34:42 PM »
What'd I tell you guys about that Price contract? He had the highest per year average for a pitcher for less than a work week.

Offline bones129

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 12132
  • RUN! Tell all the other curs the Law's coming!
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1188 on: December 05, 2015, 12:00:29 AM »
Zack!

Dodgers have now turned their attention to Cueto.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1189 on: December 09, 2015, 12:56:37 PM »
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2015/12/contracts-baseball


really good article on the subject of player options in contracts.  on fangraphs, you saw a lot of discussion of how player options, by definition benefit the player at the expense of the team.  in reality, the player option tends to benefit both the player and the team at the expense of the market.

that fangraph's discussion acknowledged that the existence of the third player (the market) in the equation, but assumed that the team could access the market by trading the player.  imo, they were not fairly accounting for the psychological, frictional and p.r. costs of trading an established star player.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline TownieCat

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 6993
  • I have no rhythm.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1190 on: December 11, 2015, 12:18:38 PM »
Heyward to the Cubs... Theo is building a monster.


Offline Cartierfor3

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 27058
  • I just want us all to be buds.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1191 on: December 11, 2015, 12:23:42 PM »
Heyward to the Cubs... Theo is building a monster.

when they lose the NLCS to the Mets or Giants or whoever next year its really gonna sting

Offline star seed 7

  • hyperactive on the :lol:
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 63768
  • good dog
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1192 on: December 11, 2015, 12:27:02 PM »
Cubs are def going to be my favorite minor league team next year
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Online mocat

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 39042
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1193 on: December 11, 2015, 12:46:36 PM »
cubs are going to just mercilessly crush people's taints next year

Offline 420seriouscat69

  • Don't get zapped! #zap
  • Wackycat
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 63922
  • #1 rated - gE NFL Scout
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1194 on: December 11, 2015, 12:47:20 PM »
cubs are going to just mercilessly crush people's taints next year
They're due.

Offline Cartierfor3

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 27058
  • I just want us all to be buds.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1195 on: December 11, 2015, 01:01:59 PM »
they're just setting themselves up for a more massive heartbreak

Online mocat

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 39042
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1196 on: December 11, 2015, 01:29:24 PM »
cubs are going to just mercilessly crush people's taints next year
They're due.

oh they're not going to win the WS, i mean that's a crap shoot. but they might make a run at the mariners reg season record. nah nvm they won't even do that. but they're going to be real good!

Offline Cartierfor3

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 27058
  • I just want us all to be buds.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1197 on: December 11, 2015, 01:30:41 PM »
cubs are going to just mercilessly crush people's taints next year
They're due.

oh they're not going to win the WS, i mean that's a crap shoot. but they might make a run at the mariners reg season record. nah nvm they won't even do that. but they're going to be real good!

they'll be the #1 seed and lose to a WC winner probably. Like the Cards I bet.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1198 on: December 11, 2015, 02:28:41 PM »
8/184 with two separate opt outs.  that's a probably very good contract for the cubs (have to see if it is front or back loaded to know for sure).
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Tobias

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 29139
  • hypoclique lieutenant
    • View Profile
Re: MLB master thread(non-Royals related) (no longer the official Mets thread)
« Reply #1199 on: December 11, 2015, 02:40:03 PM »
i only watched four cubs games last year and they looked completely awful.  couldn't believe it when you guys told me they're actually good.  baseball is so weird