It seems to me that less physical contact allowed will favor the more athletic players who should be more successful at getting to the basket without others pushing them off of it. If you can't check or forearm a kid that is faster than you, that kid will get around you. I would think this would open up all kinds of shooting for the teams with the elite talent and punish teams that go get kids that can physical up a game, Frank style.
If the rule is enforced, I think we see a benefit from the top tier teams.
That said, I think the non con did a pretty good job with the new rules until the CBE tourn. The CBE refs let those games be played like any game in the last 5 yrs. Even the commentator guy noted it. He said that the refs were letting them play as long as no obvs advantage was gained from the contact, which is pretty much the exact excuse we have been hearing for years on why kids can push, forarm, check, swipe etc others without a call.