Not an UnderStatenment, Cats take a turnover for the worse; WVU 2 ADV

[michigancat]

5:05   Will Spradling made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Jevon Thomas.   66-66   
4:48                                                                                                       66-66   DeAndre Kane missed Dunk.
4:48                                                                                                       66-66   Melvin Ejim Offensive Rebound.
4:39                                                                              66-69   Georges Niang made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Melvin Ejim.
4:32   Nino Williams missed Jumper.                                  66-69   
4:32   Nino Williams Offensive Rebound.                          66-69   
4:25   Kansas St Timeout
4:15   D.J. Johnson Turnover.                                          66-69   
4:15                                                                              66-69   DeAndre Kane Steal.
4:03                                                                              66-71   DeAndre Kane made Jumper.
4:03   Foul on D.J. Johnson.                                                  66-71   
4:03                                                                              66-72   DeAndre Kane made Free Throw.
3:46                                                                              66-72   Foul on Georges Niang.
3:46   Official TV Timeout
3:46   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.                                  67-72   
3:46   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.                                  68-72   
3:43                                                                              68-72   Melvin Ejim missed Jumper.
3:43   Will Spradling Defensive Rebound.                          68-72   
3:34   Foul on Will Spradling.                                          68-72   
3:34                                                                              68-73   Melvin Ejim made Free Throw.
3:34   Will Spradling Turnover.                                          68-72   
3:34                                                                              68-74   Melvin Ejim made Free Throw.

That Will Spradling "turnover" was not a turnover - it was the play that was reviewed where Ejim got a technical, but we retained the ball. 7 turnovers in 37 possessions = 18.5%.

We got the ball after they shot FTs. They called a foul on us on that play. And the loose ball was the result of careless play.

It's not a turnover.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

We lose possession, get called for a foul and they make 2 FTs, but its not a TO bc they got whistled for a T? Okay

[MakeItRain]

5:05   Will Spradling made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Jevon Thomas.   66-66   
4:48                                                                                                       66-66   DeAndre Kane missed Dunk.
4:48                                                                                                       66-66   Melvin Ejim Offensive Rebound.
4:39                                                                              66-69   Georges Niang made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Melvin Ejim.
4:32   Nino Williams missed Jumper.                                  66-69   
4:32   Nino Williams Offensive Rebound.                          66-69   
4:25   Kansas St Timeout
4:15   D.J. Johnson Turnover.                                          66-69   
4:15                                                                              66-69   DeAndre Kane Steal.
4:03                                                                              66-71   DeAndre Kane made Jumper.
4:03   Foul on D.J. Johnson.                                                  66-71   
4:03                                                                              66-72   DeAndre Kane made Free Throw.
3:46                                                                              66-72   Foul on Georges Niang.
3:46   Official TV Timeout
3:46   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.                                  67-72   
3:46   Marcus Foster made Free Throw.                                  68-72   
3:43                                                                              68-72   Melvin Ejim missed Jumper.
3:43   Will Spradling Defensive Rebound.                          68-72   
3:34   Foul on Will Spradling.                                          68-72   
3:34                                                                              68-73   Melvin Ejim made Free Throw.
3:34   Will Spradling Turnover.                                          68-72   
3:34                                                                              68-74   Melvin Ejim made Free Throw.

That Will Spradling "turnover" was not a turnover - it was the play that was reviewed where Ejim got a technical, but we retained the ball. 7 turnovers in 37 possessions = 18.5%.

We got the ball after they shot FTs. They called a foul on us on that play. And the loose ball was the result of careless play.

It's not a turnover.

Come on michigancat

[michigancat]

We retained possession, but it's irrelevant.

Even if the TO% is 22%, I'm still right. Heck, even if it's 25%, I'm right - for such a small sample of possessions, a 25% TO rate isn't an outlier.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with how this team plays the "last 5 minutes on close come-from-behind road games in January or the first day of February."

[nicname]

Manbeck.

http://powercatgameday.com/k-states-late-game-execution-issue-road/

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

We retained possession, but it's irrelevant.

Even if the TO% is 22%, I'm still right. Heck, even if it's 25%, I'm right - for such a small sample of possessions, a 25% TO rate isn't an outlier.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with how this team plays the "last 5 minutes on close come-from-behind road games in January or the first day of February."

Except that they turn it over nearly 23% more than average, and shoot less than half their average from 2, 3 and FT.

But yeah, other than that stuff its about the same.

[MakeItRain]

We retained possession, but it's irrelevant.

Even if the TO% is 22%, I'm still right. Heck, even if it's 25%, I'm right - for such a small sample of possessions, a 25% TO rate isn't an outlier.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with how this team plays the "last 5 minutes on close come-from-behind road games in January or the first day of February."

You are a master of changing what is being said to fit your narrative, nothing wrong with giving a little, I've done it twice.

The trend is the issue, nobody said a damn thing about January and the first day of February. So now tell us that trends don't matter either, your last 4 games bear the same relevance as the first four of the season.

[michigancat]

We retained possession, but it's irrelevant.

Even if the TO% is 22%, I'm still right. Heck, even if it's 25%, I'm right - for such a small sample of possessions, a 25% TO rate isn't an outlier.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with how this team plays the "last 5 minutes on close come-from-behind road games in January or the first day of February."

You are a master of changing what is being said to fit your narrative, nothing wrong with giving a little, I've done it twice.

The trend is the issue, nobody said a damn thing about January and the first day of February. So now tell us that trends don't matter either, your last 4 games bear the same relevance as the first four of the season.

There isn't enough evidence to constitute a "trend". We're talking about 37 hand-picked possessions out of over 1400 played so far the season.

[Powercat Posse]

Not sure what our record is when both teams score under 1.07 or when both score 1.07+.........

but when you give up an ave of 1.19 and score .95 in a 3 game ave on the road......

tough hill to climb in the 2nd half getting either to that magical 1.07 target by games end

In the Isu and WV games, we were constantly chasing (playing from behind) for a big portion of the first 15 minutes of the 2nd half

Play better the first half and maybe we acutally have a 5-6 pt lead with 4:00 or 5:00 to play

[MakeItRain]

We retained possession, but it's irrelevant.

Even if the TO% is 22%, I'm still right. Heck, even if it's 25%, I'm right - for such a small sample of possessions, a 25% TO rate isn't an outlier.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with how this team plays the "last 5 minutes on close come-from-behind road games in January or the first day of February."

You are a master of changing what is being said to fit your narrative, nothing wrong with giving a little, I've done it twice.

The trend is the issue, nobody said a damn thing about January and the first day of February. So now tell us that trends don't matter either, your last 4 games bear the same relevance as the first four of the season.

There isn't enough evidence to constitute a "trend". We're talking about 37 hand-picked possessions out of over 1400 played so far the season.

So you believe in trends but the last three road games aren't enough of a trend to measure our performance in road games? Got it, thanks!

[michigancat]

We retained possession, but it's irrelevant.

Even if the TO% is 22%, I'm still right. Heck, even if it's 25%, I'm right - for such a small sample of possessions, a 25% TO rate isn't an outlier.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with how this team plays the "last 5 minutes on close come-from-behind road games in January or the first day of February."

You are a master of changing what is being said to fit your narrative, nothing wrong with giving a little, I've done it twice.

The trend is the issue, nobody said a damn thing about January and the first day of February. So now tell us that trends don't matter either, your last 4 games bear the same relevance as the first four of the season.

There isn't enough evidence to constitute a "trend". We're talking about 37 hand-picked possessions out of over 1400 played so far the season.

So you believe in trends but the last three road games aren't enough of a trend to measure our performance in road games? Got it, thanks!

I think the last three road games in their entirety (210 possessions) can tell us about our performance as a team overall, or at least fall with in the range of what one would expect based on the results of the entire season. I guess if you want to call it a trend, you can say we have are following a trend of losing to teams when we are underdogs.


What I disagree with is the idea that you can pull a trend from the 37 possessions at the end of games to determine that we lack some sort of mental toughness/heart/grit that plagues us only in close road games. IMO the results of those 37 possessions also fall into the range of what you would expect based on the performance of the entire season - the range of possibilities gets a lot wider when you have a smaller sample size.

[MakeItRain]

We retained possession, but it's irrelevant.

Even if the TO% is 22%, I'm still right. Heck, even if it's 25%, I'm right - for such a small sample of possessions, a 25% TO rate isn't an outlier.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with how this team plays the "last 5 minutes on close come-from-behind road games in January or the first day of February."

You are a master of changing what is being said to fit your narrative, nothing wrong with giving a little, I've done it twice.

The trend is the issue, nobody said a damn thing about January and the first day of February. So now tell us that trends don't matter either, your last 4 games bear the same relevance as the first four of the season.

There isn't enough evidence to constitute a "trend". We're talking about 37 hand-picked possessions out of over 1400 played so far the season.

So you believe in trends but the last three road games aren't enough of a trend to measure our performance in road games? Got it, thanks!

I think the last three road games in their entirety (210 possessions) can tell us about our performance as a team overall, or at least fall with in the range of what one would expect based on the results of the entire season. I guess if you want to call it a trend, you can say we have are following a trend of losing to teams when we are underdogs.


What I disagree with is the idea that you can pull a trend from the 37 possessions at the end of games to determine that we lack some sort of mental toughness/heart/grit that plagues us only in close road games. IMO the results of those 37 possessions also fall into the range of what you would expect based on the performance of the entire season - the range of possibilities gets a lot wider when you have a smaller sample size.

You very well may not be talking to me but I think we don't lack any of those things, I do think we have a sense of panic in these situations and that panic is either exacerbated or the complete cause of the players on this roster who are being extended beyond their capabilities. The reason why the end of the game is relevant is because as the possessions lessen the pressure builds. Its a hell of a lot easier to be poised when there's 13 minutes left in the game as opposed to being tied with 92 seconds and 3 possessions left in the game.

[michigancat]

We retained possession, but it's irrelevant.

Even if the TO% is 22%, I'm still right. Heck, even if it's 25%, I'm right - for such a small sample of possessions, a 25% TO rate isn't an outlier.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with how this team plays the "last 5 minutes on close come-from-behind road games in January or the first day of February."

You are a master of changing what is being said to fit your narrative, nothing wrong with giving a little, I've done it twice.

The trend is the issue, nobody said a damn thing about January and the first day of February. So now tell us that trends don't matter either, your last 4 games bear the same relevance as the first four of the season.

There isn't enough evidence to constitute a "trend". We're talking about 37 hand-picked possessions out of over 1400 played so far the season.

So you believe in trends but the last three road games aren't enough of a trend to measure our performance in road games? Got it, thanks!

I think the last three road games in their entirety (210 possessions) can tell us about our performance as a team overall, or at least fall with in the range of what one would expect based on the results of the entire season. I guess if you want to call it a trend, you can say we have are following a trend of losing to teams when we are underdogs.


What I disagree with is the idea that you can pull a trend from the 37 possessions at the end of games to determine that we lack some sort of mental toughness/heart/grit that plagues us only in close road games. IMO the results of those 37 possessions also fall into the range of what you would expect based on the performance of the entire season - the range of possibilities gets a lot wider when you have a smaller sample size.

You very well may not be talking to me but I think we don't lack any of those things, I do think we have a sense of panic in these situations and that panic is either exacerbated or the complete cause of the players on this roster who are being extended beyond their capabilities. The reason why the end of the game is relevant is because as the possessions lessen the pressure builds. Its a hell of a lot easier to be poised when there's 13 minutes left in the game as opposed to being tied with 92 seconds and 3 possessions left in the game.

ok

[ydarg2012]

Something I've seen that has been curious is late in games certain players abilities to just turn it on.  Not only our games specifically, but Will will miss the majority of his threes all game and then in the last seconds throw up a running prayer three and nail it.  I think it's an intangible we are lacking due to age.  Yet I think it is not measurable with numbers.  The commentators were giving Brown the game ball and he had paltry numbers.  It is the hustle at the right moment, or the denial defense at the right moment that causes a momentum change.  I am not sure how popular it is as an opinion, but I believe that oscar is a great coach.  He is pushing our players to win and they are learning how to persevere.  It is hard to see us struggle, but I don't ever doubt our passion and desire.  Time will tell, but I think the development possibilities of oscar's recruits seem to have no ceiling. 

[CHONGS]

More often than not, your "gut" tells you what you want to hear and the "eyeball" test will show you what you want to see.   

[The Whale]

Didn't realize there was this much resistance to stats.

 

[Stevesie60]

This is going back to an early conversation, but ever since I've seen kenpom's stuff I've have sys' mentality. It sucks that we lost at UT because that is an "L" on our record that we can't get back. But it's good to know that based out what I saw and what the stats show, we probably win that game 5 out of 10 times. I think sys shares this perspective, and that's why he didn't see that loss as a big deal. It gives me confidence in our team going forward.

The thing that stats can not take into account is how a bunch of 18-19 year olds react to 3 losses in the past 4 games. They may turn it off for the season and start preparing for the next season or just start trying to make it through practices for the rest of the year instead of getting better like they had been earlier this season. I don't think that's the case. My point is that even if michigancat and sys don't believe it or just don't want to believe it, emotion and things like "clutchness" are factors to some extent.

[CHONGS]

This is going back to an early conversation, but ever since I've seen kenpom's stuff I've have sys' mentality. It sucks that we lost at UT because that is an "L" on our record that we can't get back. But it's good to know that based out what I saw and what the stats show, we probably win that game 5 out of 10 times. I think sys shares this perspective, and that's why he didn't see that loss as a big deal. It gives me confidence in our team going forward.

The thing that stats can not take into account is how a bunch of 18-19 year olds react to 3 losses in the past 4 games. They may turn it off for the season and start preparing for the next season or just start trying to make it through practices for the rest of the year instead of getting better like they had been earlier this season. I don't think that's the case. My point is that even if michigancat and sys don't believe it or just don't want to believe it, emotion and things like "clutchness" are factors to some extent.

I would say they are only factors if they can be meaningfully measured.   If "clutchness" doesn't result in an actual observable (such as more/better scoring  [how ever you want to measure such a thing]) with a numerical value, then I personally doubt its an effective factor.

[ydarg2012]

Can you measure in numbers why Will plays better at ISU? Or why a lot of players choke when they are closer to home? (Will in Lawrence) That emotional factor has a lot to do with confidence. To me confidence is what makes an effective player, and in Shane's case sometimes a detrimental one.  I can see that confidence being shot after all those close losses without proper coaching.  I think oscar knows how to keep our boys rolling. 

[michigancat]

Can you measure in numbers why Will plays better at ISU? Or why a lot of players choke when they are closer to home? (Will in Lawrence) That emotional factor has a lot to do with confidence. To me confidence is what makes an effective player, and in Shane's case sometimes a detrimental one.  I can see that confidence being shot after all those close losses without proper coaching.  I think oscar knows how to keep our boys rolling. 

random variance

[kso_FAN]

Texas was the game that we played the best defense and had the best shot to win. It was by far the most frustrating loss of the 3 because we gave ourselves the best chance to win down the stretch. The game was within 2 possessions either way the last 10 minutes of the game and Texas won on a last second shot.

The other 2 games we had major deficits; ISU led by 11 with 6:30 left and WVU led by 7 with 5:00 left. We were extremely fortunate in each to be inside of 1 possession after the under 4 TO and road teams simply don't win games often when they encounter late 2nd half deficits of those margins. We ended up allowing 1.10 and 1.11 points per possession to ISU and WVU, very few teams win on the road when allowing the home team to score like that. I think there is merit to discussing the time mistakes happen and whether or not your team is "clutch" or not, but too often those discussions discount 20 (or more) other possessions earlier in each game where K-State made equally brutal mistakes on offense and defense that led to the home team gaining significant leads that K-State had to overcome to even be in the game.

Occasionally you win games like Baylor last year on the road, but road team wins usually happen when a team pulls away by 3 or more possessions for a stretch in the last 6 or so minutes and that is the key to winning those games IMHO. Against Texas we had multiple opportunities to go up 4 (or more) in the last 6-7 minutes which were key moments, against ISU and WVU we were always playing from behind.

[sys]

Can you measure in numbers why Will plays better at ISU? Or why a lot of players choke when they are closer to home? (Will in Lawrence) That emotional factor has a lot to do with confidence. To me confidence is what makes an effective player, and in Shane's case sometimes a detrimental one.  I can see that confidence being shot after all those close losses without proper coaching.  I think oscar knows how to keep our boys rolling.

numbers, in fact, would be the only way you could measure those hypothetical phenomena.  you could try to describe them using words, as you just did, but it's much less convincing.

[MakeItRain]

Didn't realize there was this much resistance to stats.

 

There literally isn't a single post in this thread rejecting or resisting advanced metrics

[MakeItRain]

This is going back to an early conversation, but ever since I've seen kenpom's stuff I've have sys' mentality. It sucks that we lost at UT because that is an "L" on our record that we can't get back. But it's good to know that based out what I saw and what the stats show, we probably win that game 5 out of 10 times. I think sys shares this perspective, and that's why he didn't see that loss as a big deal. It gives me confidence in our team going forward.

The thing that stats can not take into account is how a bunch of 18-19 year olds react to 3 losses in the past 4 games. They may turn it off for the season and start preparing for the next season or just start trying to make it through practices for the rest of the year instead of getting better like they had been earlier this season. I don't think that's the case. My point is that even if michigancat and sys don't believe it or just don't want to believe it, emotion and things like "clutchness" are factors to some extent.

I would say they are only factors if they can be meaningfully measured.   If "clutchness" doesn't result in an actual observable (such as more/better scoring  [how ever you want to measure such a thing]) with a numerical value, then I personally doubt its an effective factor.

I think there is a difference between being clutch and not being poised. I don't think clutch is measurable or even exists. I do think you can look to things like TOr in late and close situations to gauge whether or not a team has poise.

[chum1]

The distinction isn't numbers vs. words.  Numbers can be expressed as words.  It's just a matter of rigor, which some people screw up on even when they try to use stats.