The Cats get not only a much needed home game, but a home game against one of the bottom teams in the league. To be fair, Tubby Smith has come to Lubbock and raised the level of play, separating the Red Raiders from an awful TCU team by a significant margin and landing Tech in kenpom's Top 100. However, this is still the 9th best team in the league and the Cats should expect to beat them at home.
Tech has put up some solid overall numbers for the season, but against Top 100 competition they have slid significantly, especially on defense. And notice on the road against Top 100 teams Tech hasn't gained an advantage in any of the four factors while being outscored by .17 points per possession, which translates to a margin of nearly 11 points per game at a 64 possession pace.
The below average defense is the biggest difference from traditional Tubby Smith teams (this is actually one of his top 3 offenses in the last 10 years) especially on 2PT shots. Smith's teams usually hold opponents to the low 40s on 2s, but this season teams are shooting in the upper 40s against them. Smith also apparently has bought into the fool's gold mantra for 3s and his teams don't shoot many but they allow opponents to shoot a lot.
The biggest caution going into this game is that Tech does have some solid bigs (which could create match up problems) and often will have 3 players 6-7 or bigger on the floor. Crockett and Tolbert (both 6-7) lead in scoring (14 and 12 PPG) and both will shoot 3s, but are mainly inside players. Their third scoring threat is PG Robert Turner (10 PPG) plus they have a driveway shooter in Hannahs (.421 on 3s, 1.6 makes per game). Finally they have a decent 3rd guard in combo goard Gotcher and 7 footer Dejan Kravic.
This is a game that should end K-State's losing skid. Tech could be tough in Lubbock, but this is simply a game the Cats shouldn't lose at home.
Cats 75 - Raiders 61
