2014 = no luck

[the_ugly_clown]

 
http://footballscoop.com/news/12288-who-were-the-luckiest-and-unluckiest-teams-in-college-football-this-season

[lopakman]

Not sure where you going with the thread title because the way I read the article was that we should expect better luck in 2014. 

[Cartierfor3]

We were wicked lucky in 2011, I guess this is the flip side

[bubbles4ksu]

Guy does a stats article and concludes with a statement that is a huge statistical error. Weird.

[hemmy]

Conversely, this is a portion of the list you do want to find yourself on, because chances are the ball's funny bounces will find their way into your players' arms in 2014.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Conversely, this is a portion of the list you do want to find yourself on, because chances are the ball's funny bounces will find their way into your players' arms in 2014.

Nope. Odds of good luck in 2014 have noting at all to do with 2013 luck or lack thereof.

[bucket]

Conversely, this is a portion of the list you do want to find yourself on, because chances are the ball's funny bounces will find their way into your players' arms in 2014.

Nope. Odds of good luck in 2014 have noting at all to do with 2013 luck or lack thereof.

Correct, but it's likely to improve back to the mean

[bubbles4ksu]

Conversely, this is a portion of the list you do want to find yourself on, because chances are the ball's funny bounces will find their way into your players' arms in 2014.

Nope. Odds of good luck in 2014 have noting at all to do with 2013 luck or lack thereof.

Correct, but it's likely to improve back to the mean

over the next thousand seasons, yes.

[1863]

Conversely, this is a portion of the list you do want to find yourself on, because chances are the ball's funny bounces will find their way into your players' arms in 2014.

Nope. Odds of good luck in 2014 have noting at all to do with 2013 luck or lack thereof.

Correct, but it's likely to improve back to the mean

over the next thousand seasons, yes.

Sooo basically Bill confirmed as coach for the next thousand seasons?

[Rage Against the McKee]

The luck stat is a bunch of crap, anyway. Defenses that put forth more effort will have more people around a fumble than a defense that isn't as good, so they recover a higher percentage of fumbles. This idea that a team should recover 50% of all fumbles just isn't based upon reality.

[MadCat]

Good Luck
Bad Luck
All Chaos

[chum1]

Jesus Christ.  NK first says Waters is below average, then starts in with this trivial point about probability, and now says there is no luck in football.  Is NK always this bad?

[Rage Against the McKee]

Jesus Christ.  NK first says Waters is below average, then starts in with this trivial point about probability, and now says there is no luck in football.  Is NK always this bad?

yes

[sunny_cat]

Jesus Christ.  NK first says Waters is below average, then starts in with this trivial point about probability, and now says there is no luck in football.  Is NK always this bad?

I've noticed it over the past few weeks. Don't think he's always been this bad.

[DQ12]

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=30280.msg985083#msg985083

Fumbles: The 2013 Cats had 1.5 fumbles per game (80th fewest)  Uh oh. I see where this is going. We cannot fumble it that much given our pace. The 2012 Cats had 0.8 per game (8th fewest). 

-Of those 1.5 fumbles per game, the 2013 Cats only recovered 35.3% of them (99th FR%), which translated to about 1 fumble lost per game.  The 2012 Cats recovered 70% (4th) and given that they had so few fumbles per game anyways, it means that the Cats only lost 0.2 fumbles per game (  ).  For every fumble the 2012 offense lost, the 2013 offense lost 5.

The biggest difference between the 2012 offense and the 2013 offense is fumbles lost.  Had we held onto the ball more, or recovered it more when we did drop it, the 2013 offense would've been really good.  INTs were a problem, but only slightly moreso than 2012.  But even so, the 2013 offense was pretty good.  It ran at a snail's pace, but gobbled up a pretty good amount of yards per play and moved the chains at a good rate on third down. 

"Data"Lew 12, signing out!

[kso_FAN]

The luck stat is a bunch of crap, anyway. Defenses that put forth more effort will have more people around a fumble than a defense that isn't as good, so they recover a higher percentage of fumbles. This idea that a team should recover 50% of all fumbles just isn't based upon reality.

There is some truth to that, but not enough to completely disregard luck. Connely's article is really well done and has great information and analysis of the data.