Sooners

[kso_FAN]

Advanced Stats comparison:



OU is a much better match-up because like us they aren't real big and don't really have a dominant big. Clark might be the best scorer in the league and has size at 6-7, but he's more of a swing forward than a true post. Hield is a great shooter and a top 10 scorer in the league. They also have a nice FR point in Woodard, a solid big in Spangler, and a 3rd very good guard in Cousins. All these guys play over 70% mins, but Neil, Hornbeak, and Booker are a solid trio of bench players.

OU is a contrast in styles in that they want to play fast, have a great offense, and a below average defense. Offensively nothing stands out as great (top 20), but everything is really good as the Sooners are top 90 nationally in each of the 4 factors which leads to a Top 20 offense at 1.17 ppp. Plus they've maintained quality offense against Top 100 teams. However, they are equally average on defense as all 4 factors rank #135 or worse leading to a #180th ranked defense at 1.04 points per possession. Against higher quality competition those defensive numbers get even worse and quality opponents are shooting 55% and scoring at a 1.13 ppp clip.

However, the Cats offense has been pretty bad, especially shooting the ball, plus the Cats aren't gaining the advantage in TO% to help make up for the shooting deficiencies. K-State's 2 bad games against top 100 teams were dreadful, allowing GT and KU both to score at over 1.3 points per possession while K-State was .97 ppp or worse offensively. Against everyone else they've been okay on defense (no one over 1.03 PPP) which has been enough to make up for sub par shooting.

This is a game K-State should win at home. I think a favorable match-up for K-State and a home game will lead to a solid defensive performance in a game that will likely be played in the upper 60s possession wise. Both teams get over 1.00 ppp, but the Cats finish with and advantage somewhere near 1.10 to 1.03 ppp. 

Cats 75 - Sooners 69

[KITNfury]

 

[Skipper44]

OU has the kind of lineup that our switch all ball screens 1-4 D can force in to some horrible shots late in shot clock.  They are also a team Nino should be able to continue his run of great play against and I will be very concerned if we lose this one.

[kso_FAN]

The pace of this game will be really interesting.

OU has only played 2 games under 70 possessions (both at 67) and 6 games at 78 or more possessions.

The Cats have only played 1 game at 70 possessions (the win vs OSU) and only 6 of 67 possessions or more.

OU's defense also has allowed opponents to shoot a lot of 3s against them (37.8% of opponent shots), but with our shooting that may not matter.

In Big 12 games they are shooting nearly as well from 3 (41.6%) as they are from 2 (43.5%). Opponents are shooting 58.9% eFG and 61.7% on 2PT shots against them. One of the big keys to their 2 Big 12 wins was out oboarding Texas 46% to 26.7% and Iowa State 31.7% to 17.6%.

[kso_FAN]

How hard is it for writers to actually research pace and tempo free stats? Just a little bit? kenpom costs $20 a year and you can learn all you want to learn (and more). And I point out kenpom because its easy to use, has easily sortable stats, and you can search his blog to answer almost any question you could have.

(sorry for my rant on twitter if you follow, but sheesh.)

[8manpick]

SttB!

[Winters]

I'm pretty excited for the game tonight. It seems like a really interesting match-up. My key to the game? Rebounding.

[pissclams]

i'm excited too (wildcat fan here) - glad we're playing at home so we don't have to listen to that damn sooner band!! 

['taterblast]

i'm excited about the 6 pm start. plenty of bbs'ing time after the big win.

[kso_FAN]

i'm excited about the 6 pm start. plenty of bbs'ing time after the big win.

Tuesday night games are terrible for me, I'll probably only get to watch the first half.

[Belvis Noland]

Never seen a team like OU, who relies so heavily on outside shooting, have much sustained success.  especially on the road.  I expecet our defense to show up at home.  Hoping that Jevon, Foster and Nigel (if he gets any minutes) can get looks in the paint.  OU's front court is really thin. 

We'll see.  our horrible FG% can be crippling.  and if OU is shooting the ball well, we'll be in trouble. 

[CNS]

If they dictate pace, it will be interesting to see how our guys react to that speed and what that does to the defense, minutes played by certain ppl, and fouls.

[kso_FAN]

If they dictate pace, it will be interesting to see how our guys react to that speed and what that does to the defense, minutes played by certain ppl, and fouls.

My cautious optimism is that we handled a fairly fast paced game versus a more talented team in OSU (70 possessions) fairly well. We've been fairly good at dictating pace also as that was the highest paced game we've played all year.

[Skipper44]

this should be a score or get fouled on every catch in the paint game for Gip

[kso_FAN]

this should be a score or get fouled on every catch in the paint game for Gip

I'll be disappointed if Gip doesn't have at least 15 tonight. I read a lot about Clarke being a tough match-up for us, (and he is) but Gip is an equally tough match-up for them. He's going to be about the same height, but have 20-30 pounds on each of their bigs.

[sys]

I point out kenpom because its easy to use, has easily sortable stats.

his site design is ridiculously good.  he has the exact same data as are available free elsewhere and i basically have no interest in ever looking at a different site.

[kso_FAN]

I point out kenpom because its easy to use, has easily sortable stats.

his site design is ridiculously good.  he has the exact same data as are available free elsewhere and i basically have no interest in ever looking at a different site.

Yep. Statsheet is terrible by comparison.

I like kenpom's new "frequent line-ups" feature. He adds cool stuff every year. And his blog is really good if you like reading about different stuff. Plus if you email him he'll always email back and answer questions.

[AppleJack]

I hope our guys give a great effort and come out on top.

['taterblast]

when i think of ou, i think of mid range jumpers. so i hope our defense from about 10-18 feet is great tonight.

[kso_FAN]

when i think of ou, i think of mid range jumpers. so i hope our defense from about 10-18 feet is great tonight.

This is one of the best 3PT shooting teams Kruger has ever had. His first 2 teams at OU weren't big 3PT teams, only 22% and 27% of their shot attempts were 3s. This year they are really balanced; according to hoop-math.com 36.8% of their shots are at the rim, 37.9% are 2PT jumpers, and 33.3% are 3PT shots.

[420seriouscat69]

I bet this game comes down to the final possession. I BET IT DOES!

[Cartierfor3]

How has Jevon affected our pace? Sorry if this has been addressed somewhere else.

[kso_FAN]

How has Jevon affected our pace? Sorry if this has been addressed somewhere else.

No, there aren't really any noticeable trends since he's joined. His 5 games have been 54, 69, 70, 60, and 64 possessions, so all over the map really.

[Lucas Scoopsalot]

when i think of ou, I think about 17, I think about my old jeep, I think about the stars in the sky

['taterblast]

 

holy crap luke