The Sunflower Showdown comes to Manhattan featuring the 2 best shooting teams in the Big 12. We
remember well what happened in Lawrence, and I don't expect a repeat performance of K-State's awful defense in Manhattan.
Key stats:2PT shooting: It is no surprise that KU leads the league in 2PT shooting (55.6% Big 12) as Self coached teams generally shoot very well on 2s. However, it is a surprise to see K-State lead in 2PT% defense (42.9%), especially considering that K-State lacks shot blocking ability. KU is 2nd in 2PT% defense and shot blocking, while K-State is 3rd in 2PT% offense. K-State actually shot very well on 2s in Lawrence, hitting 53.8% even though KU blocked 15.4% of the 2PT attempts. The problem was KU hit 61.5% of theirs, including 73.9% in the first half as they raced out to a 45-28 lead. If the Cats give up nearly an 8% differential on 2PT shots again its likely KU will win going away. It is important to note that K-State's 2PT% defense at home is even more impressive, only allowing Big 12 opponents to shoot 36% on 2s in the OOD. The only Big 12 team to hit more than 35% of their 2s was OSU who made 47%, but the Cats held them to 40% in the 2nd half on 2s and no other team has hit 40% or better in a half at the OOD since that first half vs the Cowboys.
3PT shooting: As bad as the 2PT% differential was in Lawrence, 3PT% was even worse. KU made 8-18 (44%) while the Cats only made 1 of 11 attempts (9%). KU has been really good on 3PT shots in Big 12 play, leading the league at 41.8% while shooting 39% or better in 8 of their 10 Big 12 games. Their worst 3PT shooting on the road was at ISU (31%), otherwise they've been at least 40% in their other Big 12 road game. KU also leads the league in 3PT% defense, though teams still hit nearly 1/3 of their 3s against the Jayhawks. TCU was the only road opponent to hit more than 32% against KU's defense. Meanwhile, K-State has improved in Big 12 play, making 35% in league games and 38% in the OOD and 44% in the 1st half. K-State's 3PT defense is decent at 33% and in the OOD opponents have made 31% of their 3s. As for 3PTA%, only 28% of KU's shots are 3s while opponents take 35% of their attempts from 3. 32% of K-State's attempts are 3s while opponents only shoot 28.5% of their attempts from 3, which makes K-State's great 2PT% defense even more valuable.
TO%: Maybe the biggest surprise of the game in Lawrence was KU recording 0 TOs in the first half and finishing with a TO rate of only 11%, their best of the season. This is a team that has had a turnover rate of at least 20% in nearly half their games and is worst in the league at 20.2%. In addition, KU has been really bad on the road, with a rate of 24% against Top 100 teams in road games. With K-State's TO problems this year, they have been able to gain an advantage at home, and force teams into a 19% TO rate in the OOD. The Cats are also coming off one of their best games of the year after forcing 28% against Texas.
OR%: KU is one of the best rebounding teams in the league and K-State sits in the middle. While KU didn't have an outlandish OR% against K-State in Lawrence (33%) they were impressive in keeping K-State off the offensive glass, holding the Wildcats to a season worst 22.6%. The Cats are nearly even in oboarding in Big 12 games, while KU holds a differential of 8%, which is 2nd in the league. K-State was able to overcome getting beat on the offensive glass by Texas because of being great in other factors and the Cats have been out-oboarded slightly in home Big 12 games, 37.5% to 33.5%.
FTR: This is the area K-State fans (and Big 12 fans in general) like to talk about, but it will likely be a non-issue in this game. Not surprisingly, KU has a high FT rate (45.9% Big 12), but they also send opponents to the FT line more than any Big 12 team (46.5%) which is by far the worst rate any Bill Self team has allowed. K-State probably won't gain a big advantage here (barring KU being forced to foul late), but the Cats should be able to stay even.
Conclusion If the Texas game is any indication the week off has helped the energy of this team, and even in down years Weber was pretty good at knocking off Top 10 teams at Illinois, earning 5 Top 10 wins even in his last 3 seasons. The crowd was great vs Texas and I expect it to be even better Monday night. Foster's confidence after an impressive outing is high, Southwell and/or Gip are due for a nice game, and sleeveless Will continues to hit some shots. This game will be close and come down to the under 4 timeout, this time I think K-State makes the plays to win it.
Cats 68 - Hawks 65
