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Author Topic: Big 12 Four Factors - FINAL 2014 Rankings  (Read 14877 times)

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Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-19-14
« Reply #25 on: January 21, 2014, 12:17:11 AM »
50.0 from 2pt, 37.1 from 3pt, 52.0 eFG ........ really happy about these offensive numbers so far.  The FTR is also pretty sweet.

Defensively, we obviously did not play well at KU.  Of the other 4 games, 2 of those were tourney teams and 2 are not, and the collective numbers are just flat out impressive.  25.4 3pt, 40.5 2pt, 38.9 eFG

Even with the poor game at Ku we are top 2 or top 3 in DEF 2pt, 3pt, eFG and PPP
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-19-14
« Reply #26 on: January 23, 2014, 08:23:00 AM »


By the numbers (especially ppp differencial) the league is already separating out into the groups most thought in the preseason.

KU and OSU form the top group in the league. Its possible someone else could slide up here (or OSU slide down a bit), but these two seem set. Its fortunate that the Cats already have at least 1 win against these 2. Then you have the next group; OSU, UT, KSU, and ISU (currently). Then the bottom 4, which for now includes Baylor with Tech, WVU, and TCU. According to the RPI and kenpom rankings ISU is up there with the top 2, but I think its more accurate to say they will be in the middle group of the league.

As for the Cats, #bruceketball's biggest strength is establishing an eFG% advantage (and #assistketball), the problem is that its not a large enough advantage right now to make up for poor TO% and just staying even in OR% and FTR. The key to last year's Big 12 title was K-State's defense generating steals and TOs at an incredible rate and this year so far in Big 12 play that is not happening.

For the Cats to stay at the top of the Big 12's 2nd tier the TO% differential must get turned into the Cats favor by at least a 2-3% differential IMHO. In all likelihood the OR% and FTR will stay pretty even and shooting will likely stay about where it is right now, so if the Cats don't clean up TOs on their end and start forcing some more on defense this team will be sitting in the middle of the bubble (and likely on the wrong side) by the time we reach March.
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Offline Mr Bread

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #27 on: January 23, 2014, 09:38:40 AM »
Hey guys!  Bread here with an Illinois update.  We are now regarded by kenpom as worse than every team in the Big 12 except TCU!  If Illinois sports had a face I would rough ridin' punch it square in the beak after having dipped my hand in plaster and crunched up glass!  :excited:  Alright.  Well, see ya later!
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #28 on: January 23, 2014, 09:40:36 AM »
Quote from: Mr Bread on January 23, 2014, 09:38:40 AM
Hey guys!  Bread here with an Illinois update.  We are now regarded by kenpom as worse than every team in the Big 12 except TCU!  If Illinois sports had a face I would rough ridin' punch it square in the beak after having dipped my hand in plaster and crunched up glass!  :excited:  Alright.  Well, see ya later!

This makes me sad. Sorry Mr. Bread.
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Offline Mr Bread

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #29 on: January 23, 2014, 10:02:48 AM »
Only 9th in the big 10, but we lost to two of the teams behind us already.  That zany kenpom. 
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Offline Nick Florences Beard

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #30 on: January 23, 2014, 10:03:19 AM »
Quote from: Mr Bread on January 23, 2014, 09:38:40 AM
Hey guys!  Bread here with an Illinois update.  We are now regarded by kenpom as worse than every team in the Big 12 except TCU!  If Illinois sports had a face I would rough ridin' punch it square in the beak after having dipped my hand in plaster and crunched up glass!  :excited:  Alright.  Well, see ya later!

:( Get better soon Breads.

Also I'm not very HBBIQ but find these very interesting. Thanks _fan.
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Offline Trogdor

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #31 on: January 23, 2014, 10:05:58 AM »
We need more steals and blocks damnit!
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #32 on: January 23, 2014, 10:08:39 AM »
Quote from: Trogdor on January 23, 2014, 10:05:58 AM
We need more steals and blocks damnit!

We aren't going to be a block team and our 2PT% has been pretty good considering that we don't.

But the steal%/TO% numbers have to change or we're looking at 6th/7th in the league IMHO.
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Offline Mixed-Nutz

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #33 on: January 23, 2014, 10:19:01 AM »
Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 23, 2014, 10:08:39 AM
Quote from: Trogdor on January 23, 2014, 10:05:58 AM
We need more steals and blocks damnit!

We aren't going to be a block team and our 2PT% has been pretty good considering that we don't.

But the steal%/TO% numbers have to change or we're looking at 6th/7th in the league IMHO.
Our defensive TO% in the non-con was great, I believe it was top 25 in the country. I am hoping the start of Big 12 play is chalk up to bad luck and an aberration. It is so odd on how many turnovers we don't force now.
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Offline sys

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #34 on: January 24, 2014, 03:13:58 AM »
baylor, tech, wvu and tcu do not form a bottom group.  tcu forms a bottom group by itself.  the other three have more in common with the six teams above them than they do with tcu.
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #35 on: January 24, 2014, 07:35:29 AM »
Quote from: sys on January 24, 2014, 03:13:58 AM
baylor, tech, wvu and tcu do not form a bottom group.  tcu forms a bottom group by itself.  the other three have more in common with the six teams above them than they do with tcu.

True, TCU is just terrible.

I think Tech and WVU are teams that will battle to finish .500. Baylor is probably a notch abover and will finish somewhere in the middle and they may work their way into the NCAA tournament.
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Offline sys

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #36 on: January 24, 2014, 03:24:57 PM »
Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 24, 2014, 07:35:29 AM
I think Tech and WVU are teams that will battle to finish .500.

you mean overall, or in conference?  from the first few weeks, there seems like an unusual amount of parity.  tcu is horrible, but there isn't that much separating the other teams, ku and osu included.  still, someone has to lose.
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-23-14
« Reply #37 on: January 27, 2014, 08:29:15 AM »


The bunching in the middle continues, this league race is going to be tough. The only mark of separation this week is the Baylor free fall. Baylor looks destined to have an opportunity to defend their NIT title, but this team will knock off several of the upper 6 teams at some point during the season.

The Cats have decent enough eFG% numbers thus far, but a key feature of this week's 2 road losses was getting outshot in each game. The Cats were able to win OR% slightly and even had a TO% advantage in Ames, but it wasn't enough to make up for shooting differentials. The Cats gave up 1.07 and 1.10 ppp in those 2 games respectively and that simply is not enough to get it done.
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Offline Cire

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-27-14
« Reply #38 on: January 27, 2014, 09:31:26 AM »
JFC where does KU's offense rank nationally ?
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-27-14
« Reply #39 on: January 27, 2014, 07:09:13 PM »
Quote from: Cire on January 27, 2014, 09:31:26 AM
JFC where does KU's offense rank nationally ?

7th nationally, 1.19 points per possession (for the season) with kenpom's adjustments.
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-27-14
« Reply #40 on: January 30, 2014, 09:58:43 AM »
This is KU's league, we're all just playing in it. At this point #10straight is nearly inevitable. 



KU's domination in PPP and shooting is unreal this year. This is probably Self's worst defense at KU (still really good), but they are dominating on the offensive end despite turning it over on over 1/5 of their possessions. Throw in impressive oboarding and FTrating numbers and you've got the best team in the league by a long shot. I suppose Texas still could make things interesting this weekend, but I don't see it. The other 2 loss team (OU) KU already beat on their home floor, so by the time the game in Austin is over KU could (should) have a 3 game lead on the league.

That leads us to a key game for the Cats against Huggins' decent WVU squad. The Cats have the leagues best eFG% defense, but that hasn't translated to the first half of road games. The only factor WVU has an advantage in is TO% and the Cats still managed to dominate that stat in Manhattan.

Reality is this league is pretty much a battle for 2nd place and the key for that run will be 1) whoever wins the most on the road 2) manages to beat KU at home (if any) and 3) avoids losing at home to anyone besides KU. Hopefully the Cats' near misses last week don't exclude them from the opportunity to finish 2nd in KU's league.
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Offline sys

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-30-14
« Reply #41 on: January 30, 2014, 10:20:56 AM »
i kinda like that teams 2-9 are pretty even.
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-30-14
« Reply #42 on: January 30, 2014, 10:22:08 AM »
Quote from: sys on January 30, 2014, 10:20:56 AM
i kinda like that teams 2-9 are pretty even.

Yeah, its a fun year to be a fan of a Big 12 team (besides TCU).
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Online michigancat

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-30-14
« Reply #43 on: January 30, 2014, 10:32:01 AM »
Is the pace of the league a lot higher this year?
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-30-14
« Reply #44 on: January 30, 2014, 10:35:41 AM »
Quote from: michigancat on January 30, 2014, 10:32:01 AM
Is the pace of the league a lot higher this year?

Yes. Last year finished with an average of 65.5 possessions: http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=25791.msg766860#msg766860

Also, here are the Big 12 historical charts for all 4 factors that I made last year: http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=25791.msg767548#msg767548
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Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-30-14
« Reply #45 on: January 30, 2014, 02:50:46 PM »
Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 30, 2014, 10:35:41 AM
Quote from: michigancat on January 30, 2014, 10:32:01 AM
Is the pace of the league a lot higher this year?

Yes. Last year finished with an average of 65.5 possessions: http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=25791.msg766860#msg766860

Also, here are the Big 12 historical charts for all 4 factors that I made last year: http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=25791.msg767548#msg767548

I think there may be an error on the possessions.  It has us for over 68 and we are about 65 in conf games.   I think it has all the teams a shade high
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-30-14
« Reply #46 on: January 30, 2014, 02:54:22 PM »
Quote from: Powercat Posse on January 30, 2014, 02:50:46 PM
I think there may be an error on the possessions.  It has us for over 68 and we are about 65 in conf games.   I think it has all the teams a shade high

You are correct, I got it from kenpom this morning. Its correct on there now, I'll get it fixed later.
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Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-30-14
« Reply #47 on: January 30, 2014, 03:27:29 PM »
Still really impressed with our 45.3 eFG allowed on defense.  We have played every team once accept Baylor and they are 9th in the league in eFG%.     

KU has been below 59.7 only once on offense (and were 63.2 vs Us).    The other 7 teams only shot 42.6 against us.   4 of those 7 games were at home, so its probably gonna be very tough to hold those 7 to under 43% the 2nd time we play them.... but KU better not approach the 63 they put on us in Larry.
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Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-30-14
« Reply #48 on: January 30, 2014, 03:54:54 PM »
Been said before, but sure would be nice to get more steals and force a few more TOs.     I don't like to see us at -2.1 on TO% diff.

We have 11 more TOs than our opp, and in the TCU game we had 9 more ( and still won by 18).... so we about even in TO differ the other 7 games, but that's still not what we really need

#1 in the league in steal % last year.  #10 so far this year  :Crybaby:
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Offline cDubya

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Re: Big 12 Four Factors - 1-30-14
« Reply #49 on: January 30, 2014, 04:47:45 PM »
 :love:

This is amazing stuff, _Fan. There's nothing like a well done spreadsheet.

Interesting too.
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