The Bowl Game

[kso_FAN]

This is a really good preview by Bill Connelly, an advanced FB stats guy writing for SBNation.

As I think of this game (and watch Michigan highlights via youtube), I keep going back to Michigan's running game. I'll take Michisstillgood's pessimistic home fan breakdown for what it is, but my biggest key for Michigan's offense is what can Shane Morris do?

Gardner was such a huge key for Michigan because of his mobility and Morris simply doesn't have the same thing. I went back and found Morris' maxpreps HS stats; he only ran for 170 yards on 157 carries for his HS career (1.08 yards per) and two years (SR and FR) he finished with negative rush yardage. His peak JR year (before he got sick with mono his SR year) he rushed for 150 yards, just over 2 ypc and 6 TDs; again this was in high school. This is simply not a guy who is going to be a threat to run and Michigan was keyed this year in their successful games by Gardner's ability to make plays with his feet and run it, or throw down field to Gallon and Funchess. Unless the Michigan offensive line made miraculous improvement in their bowl prep, this just looks ugly for Michigan's offense. Granted, Morris has been practicing since the Ohio State game because of Gardner's injury, but its clear that its only in the last 10 or so days that the Gardner not playing became a reality, so a Morris based game plan has only been put together in the last week or so.

K-State needs to take advantage of what it can in the passing game, and as I watch Michigan's clips Lockett will get open at times against this secondary. It also appears that many of the quarterbacks in the Big 10 are prone to throwing some of the dumbest, most forced passes that I've seen (much worse than anything we saw from Waters or Sams this year) leading to many of the INTs Michigan gained this year. We'll see if that is just my perception or reality. I'm hopeful Sams will see some time at QB (at least 3 series), but I think Waters could have a 250+ yard, 3 TD game against this defense. Lockett likely going for 150+ and 2 TDs.

[kso_FAN]

FWIW, here is Connelly's K-State preview from last summer. He nailed a lot of things, especially the Cats' offensive line play from this year, but also the Cats still managing to have a pretty good offense.

[Michiganisstillgood]

". However, I look for Michigan to rely more heavily on their trio of backs and hope their offensive line can control K-State’s adequate (but not great) defensive front 7 to protect Morris as much as possible."

 

Our OL is horrible, and we've rushed for negative yards in like 4 games. The only reason we average 3.25ypc is because Gardner usually picks up a few long scrambles a game.

With that said, I have no doubt Borges will try to run almost exclusively, he ran our RB's 27 times against PSU.....for 27yds. 

I can't wait for him to get fired, our only chance is just to just try to air out with the freshman and use our frosh RB's as a change of pace.

Good points. I do think Michigan faced better run defenses than they will see against us, though we aren't terrible. I'm also anxious to see if you guys are willing to run Morris, especially some of the zone/power read/speed option stuff that you seemed to use often near the goalline. Gardner reminds me of a more polished/experienced Daniel Sams; elusive, but more quick than fast. He also looks to have a better arm throwing down the field, but your OC did do a good job getting him on boots and roll outs where he could run it when needed. The Gallon kid is scary, if he can get the ball in space you guys will get some big plays against the K-State defense, and the backs can make some plays as well.

Was Toussaint hurt down the stretch?

No, he just sucked.

Well, really the OL sucked so bad that he could never "get going" Toussaint is a good runner in space, a guy recruited for the Rich  Rod spread. With our OL he could never get any space so his runs would be like -3,-2,-1,12,8,-3,-2,-3,10.

We eventually started giving more carries to our 2 freshman who are more "between the tackle runners", this helped a bit as they can get 2/3yds out of nothing, which is typically what they have to work with.

[8manpick]

Enjoyed the Connelly preview, thanks

[kso_FAN]

Okay, one more boastful bump.

As I think of this game (and watch Michigan highlights via youtube), I keep going back to Michigan's running game. I'll take Michisstillgood's pessimistic home fan breakdown for what it is, but my biggest key for Michigan's offense is what can Shane Morris do?

Gardner was such a huge key for Michigan because of his mobility and Morris simply doesn't have the same thing. I went back and found Morris' maxpreps HS stats; he only ran for 170 yards on 157 carries for his HS career (1.08 yards per) and two years (SR and FR) he finished with negative rush yardage. His peak JR year (before he got sick with mono his SR year) he rushed for 150 yards, just over 2 ypc and 6 TDs; again this was in high school. This is simply not a guy who is going to be a threat to run and Michigan was keyed this year in their successful games by Gardner's ability to make plays with his feet and run it, or throw down field to Gallon and Funchess. Unless the Michigan offensive line made miraculous improvement in their bowl prep, this just looks ugly for Michigan's offense. Granted, Morris has been practicing since the Ohio State game because of Gardner's injury, but its clear that its only in the last 10 or so days that the Gardner not playing became a reality, so a Morris based game plan has only been put together in the last week or so.

K-State needs to take advantage of what it can in the passing game, and as I watch Michigan's clips Lockett will get open at times against this secondary. It also appears that many of the quarterbacks in the Big 10 are prone to throwing some of the dumbest, most forced passes that I've seen (much worse than anything we saw from Waters or Sams this year) leading to many of the INTs Michigan gained this year. We'll see if that is just my perception or reality. I'm hopeful Sams will see some time at QB (at least 3 series), but I think Waters could have a 250+ yard, 3 TD game against this defense. Lockett likely going for 150+ and 2 TDs.

[Hurricane Cat]

Okay, one more boastful bump.

As I think of this game (and watch Michigan highlights via youtube), I keep going back to Michigan's running game. I'll take Michisstillgood's pessimistic home fan breakdown for what it is, but my biggest key for Michigan's offense is what can Shane Morris do?

Gardner was such a huge key for Michigan because of his mobility and Morris simply doesn't have the same thing. I went back and found Morris' maxpreps HS stats; he only ran for 170 yards on 157 carries for his HS career (1.08 yards per) and two years (SR and FR) he finished with negative rush yardage. His peak JR year (before he got sick with mono his SR year) he rushed for 150 yards, just over 2 ypc and 6 TDs; again this was in high school. This is simply not a guy who is going to be a threat to run and Michigan was keyed this year in their successful games by Gardner's ability to make plays with his feet and run it, or throw down field to Gallon and Funchess. Unless the Michigan offensive line made miraculous improvement in their bowl prep, this just looks ugly for Michigan's offense. Granted, Morris has been practicing since the Ohio State game because of Gardner's injury, but its clear that its only in the last 10 or so days that the Gardner not playing became a reality, so a Morris based game plan has only been put together in the last week or so.

K-State needs to take advantage of what it can in the passing game, and as I watch Michigan's clips Lockett will get open at times against this secondary. It also appears that many of the quarterbacks in the Big 10 are prone to throwing some of the dumbest, most forced passes that I've seen (much worse than anything we saw from Waters or Sams this year) leading to many of the INTs Michigan gained this year. We'll see if that is just my perception or reality. I'm hopeful Sams will see some time at QB (at least 3 series), but I think Waters could have a 250+ yard, 3 TD game against this defense. Lockett likely going for 150+ and 2 TDs.