SNOWBRAG ratings / Week 15 Predicto's

[mocat]

1. Florida State .9655
2. Alabama .8998
3. Baylor .8951
4. Ohio State .8916
5. Missouri .8815
6. Michigan State .8765
7. Louisville .8737
8. Oklahoma State .8661
9. Stanford .8623
10. Oregon .8581
11. Auburn .8523
12. Arizona State .8488
13. UCF .8458
14. South Carolina .8423
15. Wisconsin .8350
16. Northern Illinois .8333
17. UCLA .8213
18. Clemson .8187
19. Oklahoma .8147
20. LSU .8129
21. Miami (FL) .8078
22. Virginia Tech .7976
23. USC .7968
24. Washington .7964
25. BYU .7955

32. Texas .7813
44. Kansas State .7501
66. Texas Tech .7025
81. TCU .6662
93. West Virginia .6355
103. Iowa State .6042
106. Kansas .5937

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Week 15 Predicto's

Louisville 26
Cincinnati 16

Bowling Green 30
Northern Illinois 25

Oklahoma 20
Oklahoma State 33

Marshall 35
Rice 24

UCF 42
SMU 24

Memphis 23
Connecticut 17

Texas 24
Baylor 48

Missouri 31
Auburn 27

USF 21
Rutgers 24

Stanford 30
Arizona State 30

Louisiana-Lafayette 29
South Alabama 30

Duke 16
Florida State 47

Ohio State 24
Michigan State 21

Utah State 31
Fresno State 27

[EMAWmeister]

So we likely play the loser of the PAC 12 ship, right? Idk who I want that to be.

[mocat]

in case anyone is curious, this seems like a good time to list some of this stuff:

Top SOS-weighted offenses:

1. Baylor .899
2. Florida State .867
3. Ohio State .808
4. Oregon .806
5. Miami (FL) .787
6. Alabama .777
7. Louisville .771
8. Auburn .768
9. Texas A&M .761
10. Indiana .751
31. Kansas State .692

Top SOS-weighted defenses:

1. Michigan State .820
2. Florida State .806
3. Virginia Tech .758
4. Utah State .724
5. Alabama .713
6. Louisville .712
7. Stanford .693
8. Oklahoma State .686
9. Missouri .682
10. Wisconsin .678
35. Kansas State .595

Top SOS (includes opponents' SOS):

1. Notre Dame .589
2. Pittsburgh .588
3. Stanford .582
4. Michigan .582
5. North Carolina .581
6. Virginia .581
7. Purdue .580
8. Florida .579
9. Tennessee .579
10. Utah .579
62. Kansas State .545

PPP differential:

1. Florida State +.636 
2. Alabama +.416
3. Baylor +.388
4. Ohio State +.381
5. Oregon +.354
22. Kansas State +.197

[Rage Against the McKee]

So we likely play the loser of the PAC 12 ship, right? Idk who I want that to be.

Stanford, hopefully.

[mocat]

Luckiest teams this year:

1. Fresno State +.247
2. Northern Illinois +.230
3. Rice +.179
4. Oklahoma +.174
5. Auburn +.169
6. UCF +.163
7. San Diego State +.160
8. Ohio State +.155
9. Arizona State .151
10. Duke .137

Unluckiest teams this year:

1. Hawaii -.272
2. Temple -.271
3. Georgia State -.246
4. Memphis -.203
5. TCU -.201
6. Air Force -.161
7. Kentucky -.160
8. New Mexico -.152
9. North Carolina .151
10. Kansas State -.136

[mocat]

Possible bowl opponents (request your own):

Arizona State 36
Kansas State 31

Stanford 29
Kansas State 25

Oregon 37
Kansas State 29

Nebraska 26
Kansas State 33

Iowa 24
Kansas State 25

Minnesota 23
Kansas State 30

Michigan 30
Kansas State 32

why we (at 7-5) would have to play a 10-3 ASU is beyond me, but that looks pretty likely

[Emo EMAW]

Luckiest teams this year:

1. Fresno State +.247
2. Northern Illinois +.230
3. Rice +.179
4. Oklahoma +.174
5. Auburn +.169
6. UCF +.163
7. San Diego State +.160
8. Ohio State +.155
9. Arizona State .151
10. Duke .137

Unluckiest teams this year:

1. Hawaii -.272
2. Temple -.271
3. Georgia State -.246
4. Memphis -.203
5. TCU -.201
6. Air Force -.161
7. Kentucky -.160
8. New Mexico -.152
9. North Carolina .151
10. Kansas State -.136

What are the inputs for this calculation?

[mocat]

essentially comparing their win% to what their win% should be based on their stats (mostly PPP)

[Emo EMAW]

essentially comparing their win% to what their win% should be based on their stats (mostly PPP)

Does take into account SOS? 

[mocat]

i do not factor "luck" into the snowbrag ratings, btw.  a team's stats and win% are both factored into the ratings. the predicto's, however, do not take into account win%

[mocat]

essentially comparing their win% to what their win% should be based on their stats (mostly PPP)

Does take into account SOS?

no, that's the beauty of it actually. regardless of your level of competition, if you perform well, it should be reflected in your win%.

[TownieCat]

why we (at 7-5) would have to play a 10-3 ASU is beyond me, but that looks pretty likely

The P12 has horrendous bowl tie-ins. Their 4th place team has to play on Dec. 21 

[mocat]

i don't see any projections where we play vs Michigan, but i think that would be the most fun game.

btw, these are the snowbrag rankings for the teams listed above:

9. Stanford
10. Oregon
12. Arizona State
33. Iowa
40. Michigan
44. Kansas State
47. Minnesota
61. Nebraska

[Emo EMAW]

essentially comparing their win% to what their win% should be based on their stats (mostly PPP)

Does take into account SOS?

no, that's the beauty of it actually. regardless of your level of competition, if you perform well, it should be reflected in your win%.

I could cite extreme examples in my disagreement, but hey, it's your formula and if it makes you happy then I'm happy. 

[mocat]

I like it because there is diversity in the lists of luckiest/unluckiest teams. Arizona State has the #17 most difficult SOS, and Fresno State the #12 easiest SOS, but both have better records than their level of play indicates. I could involve SOS, but again, I do not use "luck" as a factor in the ratings. This was just out of curiosity. Sort of "who has outkicked their coverage?" type curiosity. If you're a 3 dating a 6, you are still as lucky as a 7 dating a 10, imo. Obviously a 7 is better than a 3, but both are just as "lucky".

[Emo EMAW]

We're lucky to have you mocat.

(I was thinking though like if you're Notre Dame and you have a pretty good football team with good stats, but you lose a ton of games because in one particular year the other teams are all really good, then it's not really unlucky because the better team still won.  Maybe I'm wrong though because if they were losing to good teams their stats wouldn't be that impressive, assuming you include both offensive and defensive stats.  I wonder what a xy plot of luck and TO ratio would look like?  I assume there'd be a correlation.  And we know getting TO's and giving them up isn't a purely luck thing.  Oh what I have done with this post?)

[mocat]

We're lucky to have you mocat.

(I was thinking though like if you're Notre Dame and you have a pretty good football team with good stats, but you lose a ton of games because in one particular year the other teams are all really good, then it's not really unlucky because the better team still won.

if a team is consistently getting their ass kicked (even if it's by really good teams) stats-wise, and their win% reflects that, their "luck" rating will be pretty close to 0.

if a team is consistently winning by small margins (ahem, WAR DAMN EAGLE) and rarely dominates an opponent, if that team has a fantastic record at this point in the season, that would be considered "lucky". Fresno State is #1 on this list because their performance over the course of the season indicates a team who should not be 10-1.

[mocat]

Notre Dame has outscored its opponents on the season 325-275. That's a very crude way to look at a season, however it's pretty obvious that that score differential is not going to blow anybody's mind. So having an 8-4 record is pretty good but not unbelievable. Which is why ND shows up as the #51 luckiest team.

[PowercatPat]

i don't see any projections where we play vs Michigan, but i think that would be the most fun game.

btw, these are the snowbrag rankings for the teams listed above:

9. Stanford
10. Oregon
12. Arizona State
33. Iowa
40. Michigan
44. Kansas State
47. Minnesota
61. Nebraska

How is Michigan ahead of us? They are garbage.

[mocat]

i don't see any projections where we play vs Michigan, but i think that would be the most fun game.

btw, these are the snowbrag rankings for the teams listed above:

9. Stanford
10. Oregon
12. Arizona State
33. Iowa
40. Michigan
44. Kansas State
47. Minnesota
61. Nebraska

How is Michigan ahead of us? They are garbage.

i wouldn't say they are garbage. no FCS loss seems like a pretty glaring difference. they also just about beat the BCS #2 team in the country. they have a win over Notre Dame and their worst loss is 17-13 to Nebraska. they are also 7-5.

[mocat]

keep in mind KSU's best victory is to a Sun Belt team. just let that one resonate for a while while you tell me Michigan is "garbage" and should not be a mere 0.0090 points higher than KSU in my advanced stats database

[Stevesie60]

So Bowling Green could really beat NIU!?! This is joyous news!

[mocat]

So Bowling Green could really beat NIU!?! This is joyous news!

yes it can definitely happen. it would shake up the bcs, possibly giving baylor the 2nd at-large bid, and possibly jumping all big 12 teams up a spot in the bowl pecking order