Author Topic: Boise State/La Salle  (Read 19767 times)

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Offline kso_FAN

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Boise State/La Salle
« on: March 19, 2013, 09:02:47 AM »
As most expected, the Cats drew a 4 seed, but they also drew the recently added play in game between 13 seeds, supposedly 2 of the last at large picks in the field. Last year as a 12 seed South Florida won their 1st round game and then upset 5 seed Temple. 2 years ago 11 seed VCU won the first round game, upset Georgetown, and then made the Final 4. Hopefully the Cats aren't the 3rd upset victim in 3 years.

As two of the last teams selected, its no surprise the Cats' possible opponents are similarly ranked; Boise State finished 44 in the RPI while La Salle finished 46 while BSU was 49 in kenpom with La Salle 57. Boise State played in the tougher Mountain West conference and finished with a SOS of 53, going 4-7 against Top 50 RPI teams and 8-8 against the Top 100. La Salle finished with an SOS of 77, going 2-4 vs the Top 50 and 6-8 vs the Top 100. Both teams had moments where they received votes in both the AP and Coaches polls during the season. Boise State featured a pair of 2nd team All Mountain West players in guards Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks while La Salle had A-10 1st team Ramon Gallaway and 2nd team Tyreek Duren.

Boise State



The 3 charts show the tempo free stats for Boise State for the season, Mountain West games, and their games vs Top 100 kenpom teams (14 games, they went 7-7). They play at fairly high pace, and played their fastest against the Top 100. Notably they have poor post defense as evidenced by their lack of blocks and high 2PT% agaisnt them, but they are also a very good 3PT shooting team and rely on the 3 a lot; those numbers are very similar to ours. They also allow their opponents to shoot a high amount of 3s. Also, they rely more on playmaking, especially by their two lead guards. They are a very consistent defensive rebounding team, but their defense slips quite a bit against better competition.



I put together per 100 possession charts to better show actual production while on the floor, but also added shooting charts. The top left chart shows the starters (bold) in addition to experience and height. Marks and Drmic are their key players with a solid pair of posts (Watkins and Buckner) and a drive way shooter (Eloriagga).

La Salle



La Salle has some similar metrics, but they slip substantially on offense against tougher teams. They rely much more on a defense that forces TOs and are a very poor defensive rebounding team. Their 2PT% defense slips in conference play, and offensively while they rely on the 3 at a similar rate to Boise, they also feature a much higher assist rate.



Like Boise, La Salle is led by a pair of perimeter players with a nice complimentary player inside (Wright). Its notable that one of their better post players, Steve Zack, has been out for the last several weeks with a foot injury.

I expect to play Boise State. Boise State is the better rebounding team and La Salle really slips shooting the ball against better competition. Plus, if Zack is still out, that will substantially hurt La Salle's interior defense and rebounding. Of course, either team could get hot from 3, and in that case La Salle may have the advantage because opponents attempt a lot fewer 3s against them. Either opponent would provide a nice challenge for the Cats, but I would expect a comfortable win against either one.


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Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2013, 09:14:01 AM »
Buckner won't play, infected tooth.  Can't make this stuff up people.

ETA:  Actually now they are saying he will play. 

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2013, 09:15:25 AM »
Buckner won't play, infected tooth.  Can't make this stuff up people.

I didn't see that, that's a big loss for them.

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2013, 09:15:59 AM »
Buckner won't play, infected tooth.  Can't make this stuff up people.

I didn't see that, that's a big loss for them.

See my edit.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2013, 09:17:35 AM »
#teamdrysockets

Offline The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2013, 09:50:39 AM »
TLDNR but I'm sure its fantastic, _FAN.

Will read whenever I have time.
I think what my friend Mitch is trying to say is that true love is blind.

Offline Gooch

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2013, 10:03:29 AM »
^^^^^ That's rough ridin' funny :lol: Kelly Stewart Creep!

Offline FuzzyWuzzy

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2013, 11:02:28 AM »
I just noticed that 7 of our 9 worst offensive rebounding(OR%) games have resulted in losses.   :sdeek:
Boise St. seems to be a good rebounding team, could that be trouble for us?

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2013, 11:04:04 AM »
I think La Salle would probably give us the easier game, but I'll be pretty angry at oscar if he fails to beat either of these teams by double digits.

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2013, 11:14:05 AM »
So...  The play is Boise -1.5, correct.
bears are fast...

Offline Mr Bread

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2013, 11:22:36 AM »
I think La Salle would probably give us the easier game, but I'll be pretty angry at oscar if he fails to beat either of these teams by double digits.

As long as he wins you should just shut up about it.
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Offline pvegs

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2013, 12:02:22 PM »
Thanks _Fan.  Any thoughts on why the play-in winners have had such success? Is it because their opps have less time to prepare?  Underestimate them? Random?

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2013, 12:57:06 PM »
Thanks _Fan.  Any thoughts on why the play-in winners have had such success? Is it because their opps have less time to prepare?  Underestimate them? Random?

Any D-1 hoops coach will tell you, "the toughest game in the tourney is the first game in the tourney". 

Playing one greatly knocks the nerves off and gives the winner a bit of momentum heading into Rd 2.

bears are fast...

Offline Domino

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2013, 12:58:49 PM »
So if I glanced at those stats correctly - you're saying Boise State lives and dies by playing the lottery (AKA shooting from beyond the arc) ?

Offline Cire

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2013, 01:04:24 PM »
we all new this but gottlieb loves us and says sweet 16.

Offline kougar24

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2013, 01:14:52 PM »
playing the lottery (AKA shooting from beyond the arc)

:dubious:

Offline CopperBowl

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2013, 01:15:59 PM »
Thanks _Fan.  Any thoughts on why the play-in winners have had such success? Is it because their opps have less time to prepare?  Underestimate them? Random?

Any D-1 hoops coach will tell you, "the toughest game in the tourney is the first game in the tourney". 

Playing one greatly knocks the nerves off and gives the winner a bit of momentum heading into Rd 2.

BS.

It's because we're drawing conclusions from a population of 3.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2013, 01:43:50 PM »
So if I glanced at those stats correctly - you're saying Boise State lives and dies by playing the lottery (AKA shooting from beyond the arc) ?

Yes. The lottery applies more to defense than offense because you usually have more control of the quality of your offensive looks, but its still a bit of a lottery if you are shooting more than 40% of your attempts from behind the arc.

Allowing opponents to shoot 37% of their attempts as 3s also probably means they allow their opponents a lot of good attempts.

Thanks _Fan.  Any thoughts on why the play-in winners have had such success? Is it because their opps have less time to prepare?  Underestimate them? Random?

At this point its random because its such a small sample size. I do think winning a game can't hurt though for a 11/12/13 seeded team.

I just noticed that 7 of our 9 worst offensive rebounding(OR%) games have resulted in losses.   :sdeek:
Boise St. seems to be a good rebounding team, could that be trouble for us?

I'm not overly concerned because we've rebounded well lately, but its definitely a concern for us, more of what we allow though. I think we'll be fine on the oboards against either team.

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #18 on: March 19, 2013, 01:54:28 PM »
Thanks _Fan.  Any thoughts on why the play-in winners have had such success? Is it because their opps have less time to prepare?  Underestimate them? Random?

Any D-1 hoops coach will tell you, "the toughest game in the tourney is the first game in the tourney". 

Playing one greatly knocks the nerves off and gives the winner a bit of momentum heading into Rd 2.

BS.

It's because we're drawing conclusions from a population of 3.


There's NOTHING BS about it...  Although its a small sample size, both my statements are true.

bears are fast...

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #19 on: March 19, 2013, 02:35:12 PM »
I added a similar chart for K-State to allow for easier comparisons to both Boise and La Salle.






Offline MixBerryCrunch

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2013, 02:40:58 PM »
I don't understand how the Mountain West is a tougher conference than the A10. Butler, St. Louis, Xavier, Richmond, Temple, VCU compared to New Mexico, UNLV, SDSU and BSU. Idk seems about equal maybe the slight edge to the A10.  I just don't get conference ratings sometimes.
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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2013, 02:41:49 PM »
Angel is going to destroy whichever one of these teams we play.
I think what my friend Mitch is trying to say is that true love is blind.

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2013, 02:44:15 PM »
Comparative Scores!

LaSalle beat Delaware by 7,   We beat Delaware by 3
LaSalle beat George Washington by 9 (road), 14 (home),   We beat GW by 3

Boise State beat Texas Southern by 18, We be Texas Southern by 9

 :ohno:

Offline CNS

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2013, 02:47:54 PM »
Angel is going to destroy whichever one of these teams we play.

Yeah.

Offline Mixed-Nutz

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Re: Boise State/La Salle
« Reply #24 on: March 19, 2013, 02:56:34 PM »
Comparative Scores!

LaSalle beat Delaware by 7,   We beat Delaware by 3
LaSalle beat George Washington by 9 (road), 14 (home),   We beat GW by 3

Boise State beat Texas Southern by 18, We be Texas Southern by 9

 :ohno:

Pfft this was before we even had an offense.