kp's Big 12 log5 is out.
As is customary in this event, Kansas is a convincing favorite. The Jayhawks have won five tournaments during the previous eight years of sharing or outright winning the regular-season Big 12 title. The two through six seeds are good enough to give the Jayhawks some competition, so Kansas’ chances of winning aren’t much better than a coin flip. Because the bottom four teams are quite a bit worse than the rest of the conference, there was a nice bonus for the teams the got the top two-seeds. So even though Kansas State and Iowa State are roughly equal in skill, the Wildcats’ chances of winning the title are significantly better.
Kansas gets half of a home-court share in this analysis.
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Kansas 100 93.5 73.3 54.2
3 Oklahoma St. 100 63.4 41.9 17.1
2 Kansas St. 100 75.9 33.2 10.4 5 Iowa St. 100 55.6 15.0 7.1
6 Baylor 100 36.6 19.6 5.8
4 Oklahoma 100 44.4 10.3 4.3
7 Texas 86.7 23.4 5.3 0.8
8 W. Virginia 81.1 6.1 1.4 0.3
9 Texas Tech 18.9 0.4 0.02 0.001
10 TCU 13.3 0.7 0.03 0.0009
And: :(
All-kenpom: Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State (kPOY); Jeff Withey, Kansas; Ben McLemore, Kansas; Pierre Jackson, Baylor; Romero Osby, Oklahoma.