Author Topic: need some reassurance..  (Read 6072 times)

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Offline EllToPay

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need some reassurance..
« on: March 24, 2010, 08:50:22 AM »
pretty :ohno: about tomorrow. hbbiq'ers, please give me some elite numbers and stats that will calm my fears. please leave out anything xavier is better than us at.

tia.  :kstatriot:


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Offline Cire

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2010, 08:53:30 AM »
We are probably the best team they've played. Kenpom and sagarin have us as favs

Offline EllToPay

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2010, 08:56:59 AM »
We are probably the best team they've played. Kenpom and sagarin have us as favs

:excited: keep going!

Offline michigancat

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2010, 08:58:54 AM »
we're going to kick the crap out of them.  /thread

Offline EllToPay

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2010, 09:10:13 AM »
we're going to kick the crap out of them.  /thread

 :runaway:

Offline SkinnyBenny

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2010, 09:15:30 AM »
What about our bigs vs. their bigs?   :ohno:

Is Jordan Crawford really that good?  :ohno:
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Offline michigancat

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2010, 09:17:39 AM »
What about our bigs vs. their bigs?   :ohno:

Is Jordan Crawford really that good?  :ohno:

we're going to kick the crap out of them.  /thread

Offline EllToPay

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2010, 09:20:50 AM »
we're going to kick the crap out of them.  /thread


pretty :ohno: about tomorrow. hbbiq'ers, please give me some elite numbers and stats that will calm my fears. please leave out anything xavier is better than us at.

tia.  :kstatriot:

:impatient:

Offline Pexikan

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2010, 09:21:04 AM »
LeBrons gonna want us to win since the whole Crawford thing embarrassed him.

Offline pissclams

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2010, 09:21:26 AM »
they're a mid-major (at best)


Cheesy Mustache QB might make an appearance.

New warning: Don't get in a fight with someone who doesn't even need to bother to buy ink.

Offline steve dave

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2010, 09:31:13 AM »
We already beat the living eff out of them once this season :dunno:

Offline WillieWatanabe

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2010, 09:33:52 AM »
We already beat the living eff out of them once this season :dunno:

and Jake only played 24 minutes in that game as well...
and we were 23-40 from the free throw line...
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Offline Cire

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2010, 09:35:51 AM »
And Kelly and Sams are a good matchup to get their bigs in foul trouble.

Pulls and Dom will shut down crawford.

Offline EllToPay

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2010, 09:37:09 AM »
what about, like, kenpom-y stats? :ohno:

Offline SuperG

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2010, 09:42:23 AM »
what about, like, kenpom-y stats? :ohno:

I don't know about that, but go watch the Xavier v. Minn game on mmod.ncaa.com. OMG it's horrid. Xavier v. Pitt is not much better. BYU is much better at basketball and we match up worse with them.  :bball:

Offline Ira Hayes

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #15 on: March 24, 2010, 09:43:08 AM »
Vegas says we'll beat them worse than we were supposed to beat BYU.

Offline EllToPay

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #16 on: March 24, 2010, 09:45:26 AM »
Vegas says we'll beat them worse than we were supposed to beat BYU.


omg, i feel much better  :excited:

Offline steve dave

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #17 on: March 24, 2010, 09:46:48 AM »
They named their loser school after a loser KU player

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2010, 09:49:47 AM »
In the podcast I compared Xavier to Oklahoma State.  They might be slightly better and play more physical, as well as at a faster pace, but the profile is similar.  This is especially true when you look at personnel; they have 1 great player in Crawford, a couple solid players surrounding him in Holloway and Love, and then some nice role players.  Not too much unlike Anderson with Muenelo and Moses plus role players.  Offensively, like OSU through Anderson, Xavier's offense will run through Crawford while Holloway and Love will get their share of looks.

That said, there are differences, namely that Xavier will rely less on the 3 point shot and they will play a more physical man defensive scheme.  Defensively Xavier is not a pressure team that tries to force TOs and get steals at a high pace, they are more of a team that wants to take you out of your sets and force tough shots.  Teams haven't shot well from the perimeter against them over the season, but as I said in another thread, that is partially a product of the A-10 being a poor perimeter shooting league.  Xavier is a solid (not great) rebounding team, and like many teams that we see, they don't agressively attack the offensive glass and usually send 3 guys back to stop transition.  They also don't allow teams to get offensive boards at a high rate, though we handled that well in Manhattan.  Plus, Xavier has struggled at times this year against teams with good guards, especially quick guards, and we should cause them some trouble there.

Offensively, Crawford is likely going to get his 20 some points.  He is not a guy that tends to have ridiculous scoring nights, only 1 game over 30 on the year, but he's consistent at getting 20, reaching that mark 19 times.  I think he's a guy that Sutton should match up better with b/c he's not near the penetrator/distributor that Federette was and is more likely going to be looking for his shot.  Inside, Love is a solid scorer and McClean has some ability, Frease is more like their version of Lou.  Both Love and McClean are pretty up and down with their scoring, mixing single digit games with a few double digit games, similar to Samuels for us.  Frease hasn't scored in double figures since early Feb.  Holloway is a combo guard, their best distributor, but also their 2nd best scorer.  Outside of that, guards Jackson and Lyons are their role scorers, sort of like McGruder for us, and they have driveway shooter Redford, though he hasn't done a ton this year with his best game coming against us.

Even though Xavier likes a pace in the lower 70s, I think their main chance to beat us is to muddy the game up a bit and slow us down.  They are fairly athletic, but I don't think they want to play up and down with us.  They also have to hope to get us out of offensive rhythm, I don't think they can win if we shoot 45% or better overall and 35% or better from 3, they just don't have enough scorers IMO.  Plus, Crawford will have to get his 25 and then probably both Holloway and Love get into double figures, unless one of their other role players steps up.  

In the end, I just think there is too much in our favor in this one.  I see a game that probably stays tight for a while, but at some point we pull away and then spend the rest of the game holding them at bay or extending the lead.  I'd say this ends up as a 79-68 game or something like that; Xavier's defense might keep us under 80, but I think they'll have trouble getting into the 70s against ours.  If we get what we expect from Pullen and Clemente, but get better than expected performances from 2 of Kelly/Samuels/Sutton (or even Judge/McGruder) we could win this one going away.  For Xavier to win, they need a game in the 60s and it will come down to the last couple possessions, I don't think they are capable of getting away from us.

Offline EllToPay

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #19 on: March 24, 2010, 09:56:29 AM »
In the podcast I compared Xavier to Oklahoma State.  They might be slightly better and play more physical, as well as at a faster pace, but the profile is similar.  This is especially true when you look at personnel; they have 1 great player in Crawford, a couple solid players surrounding him in Holloway and Love, and then some nice role players.  Not too much unlike Anderson with Muenelo and Moses plus role players.  Offensively, like OSU through Anderson, Xavier's offense will run through Crawford while Holloway and Love will get their share of looks.

That said, there are differences, namely that Xavier will rely less on the 3 point shot and they will play a more physical man defensive scheme.  Defensively Xavier is not a pressure team that tries to force TOs and get steals at a high pace, they are more of a team that wants to take you out of your sets and force tough shots.  Teams haven't shot well from the perimeter against them over the season, but as I said in another thread, that is partially a product of the A-10 being a poor perimeter shooting league.  Xavier is a solid (not great) rebounding team, and like many teams that we see, they don't agressively attack the offensive glass and usually send 3 guys back to stop transition.  They also don't allow teams to get offensive boards at a high rate, though we handled that well in Manhattan.  Plus, Xavier has struggled at times this year against teams with good guards, especially quick guards, and we should cause them some trouble there.

Offensively, Crawford is likely going to get his 20 some points.  He is not a guy that tends to have ridiculous scoring nights, only 1 game over 30 on the year, but he's consistent at getting 20, reaching that mark 19 times.  I think he's a guy that Sutton should match up better with b/c he's not near the penetrator/distributor that Federette was and is more likely going to be looking for his shot.  Inside, Love is a solid scorer and McClean has some ability, Frease is more like their version of Lou.  Both Love and McClean are pretty up and down with their scoring, mixing single digit games with a few double digit games, similar to Samuels for us.  Frease hasn't scored in double figures since early Feb.  Holloway is a combo guard, their best distributor, but also their 2nd best scorer.  Outside of that, guards Jackson and Lyons are their role scorers, sort of like McGruder for us, and they have driveway shooter Redford, though he hasn't done a ton this year with his best game coming against us.

Even though Xavier likes a pace in the lower 70s, I think their main chance to beat us is to muddy the game up a bit and slow us down.  They are fairly athletic, but I don't think they want to play up and down with us.  They also have to hope to get us out of offensive rhythm, I don't think they can win if we shoot 45% or better overall and 35% or better from 3, they just don't have enough scorers IMO.  Plus, Crawford will have to get his 25 and then probably both Holloway and Love get into double figures, unless one of their other role players steps up.  

In the end, I just think there is too much in our favor in this one.  I see a game that probably stays tight for a while, but at some point we pull away and then spend the rest of the game holding them at bay or extending the lead.  I'd say this ends up as a 79-68 game or something like that; Xavier's defense might keep us under 80, but I think they'll have trouble getting into the 70s against ours.  If we get what we expect from Pullen and Clemente, but get better than expected performances from 2 of Kelly/Samuels/Sutton (or even Judge/McGruder) we could win this one going away.  For Xavier to win, they need a game in the 60s and it will come down to the last couple possessions, I don't think they are capable of getting away from us.

:eek:

That said, there are differences, namely that Xavier will rely less on the 3 point shot and they will play a more physical man defensive scheme.

What about Redford? :ohno:

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #20 on: March 24, 2010, 09:58:53 AM »
That said, there are differences, namely that Xavier will rely less on the 3 point shot and they will play a more physical man defensive scheme.

What about Redford? :ohno:


Redford doesn't worry me in the least.  His only skill is shooting, and if he comes in we should abuse him on the defensive end to offset any shots he throws in.  Plus, I think since he had his best game of the year against us in Manhattan, we'll be sure to know where he is on the floor.

Offline Saulbadguy

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #21 on: March 24, 2010, 10:08:57 AM »
Dare I say, we will pisspound them?
Where did you get that overnight bag?

Offline sys

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #22 on: March 24, 2010, 10:09:24 AM »
didn't want to say anything in the podcast thread, for obvious reasons.  but the podcast sucked this week.  sounded like b. knight half-assing his way through it with errors and lbbiq statements.


just remember, me criticizing this 'cast means i liked the others.
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #23 on: March 24, 2010, 10:12:56 AM »
didn't want to say anything in the podcast thread, for obvious reasons.  but the podcast sucked this week.  sounded like b. knight half-assing his way through it with errors and lbbiq statements.


just remember, me criticizing this 'cast means i liked the others.

 :peek:

Offline KSU-Krazie

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Re: need some reassurance..
« Reply #24 on: March 24, 2010, 10:37:42 AM »
2 words: Wally Judge  :excited: