In the podcast I compared Xavier to Oklahoma State. They might be slightly better and play more physical, as well as at a faster pace, but the profile is similar. This is especially true when you look at personnel; they have 1 great player in Crawford, a couple solid players surrounding him in Holloway and Love, and then some nice role players. Not too much unlike Anderson with Muenelo and Moses plus role players. Offensively, like OSU through Anderson, Xavier's offense will run through Crawford while Holloway and Love will get their share of looks.
That said, there are differences, namely that Xavier will rely less on the 3 point shot and they will play a more physical man defensive scheme. Defensively Xavier is not a pressure team that tries to force TOs and get steals at a high pace, they are more of a team that wants to take you out of your sets and force tough shots. Teams haven't shot well from the perimeter against them over the season, but as I said in another thread, that is partially a product of the A-10 being a poor perimeter shooting league. Xavier is a solid (not great) rebounding team, and like many teams that we see, they don't agressively attack the offensive glass and usually send 3 guys back to stop transition. They also don't allow teams to get offensive boards at a high rate, though we handled that well in Manhattan. Plus, Xavier has struggled at times this year against teams with good guards, especially quick guards, and we should cause them some trouble there.
Offensively, Crawford is likely going to get his 20 some points. He is not a guy that tends to have ridiculous scoring nights, only 1 game over 30 on the year, but he's consistent at getting 20, reaching that mark 19 times. I think he's a guy that Sutton should match up better with b/c he's not near the penetrator/distributor that Federette was and is more likely going to be looking for his shot. Inside, Love is a solid scorer and McClean has some ability, Frease is more like their version of Lou. Both Love and McClean are pretty up and down with their scoring, mixing single digit games with a few double digit games, similar to Samuels for us. Frease hasn't scored in double figures since early Feb. Holloway is a combo guard, their best distributor, but also their 2nd best scorer. Outside of that, guards Jackson and Lyons are their role scorers, sort of like McGruder for us, and they have driveway shooter Redford, though he hasn't done a ton this year with his best game coming against us.
Even though Xavier likes a pace in the lower 70s, I think their main chance to beat us is to muddy the game up a bit and slow us down. They are fairly athletic, but I don't think they want to play up and down with us. They also have to hope to get us out of offensive rhythm, I don't think they can win if we shoot 45% or better overall and 35% or better from 3, they just don't have enough scorers IMO. Plus, Crawford will have to get his 25 and then probably both Holloway and Love get into double figures, unless one of their other role players steps up.
In the end, I just think there is too much in our favor in this one. I see a game that probably stays tight for a while, but at some point we pull away and then spend the rest of the game holding them at bay or extending the lead. I'd say this ends up as a 79-68 game or something like that; Xavier's defense might keep us under 80, but I think they'll have trouble getting into the 70s against ours. If we get what we expect from Pullen and Clemente, but get better than expected performances from 2 of Kelly/Samuels/Sutton (or even Judge/McGruder) we could win this one going away. For Xavier to win, they need a game in the 60s and it will come down to the last couple possessions, I don't think they are capable of getting away from us.
