oscar's Illinois teams the last 3 years were nearly even (Big 10 games only) between OR% and OR% allowed; they got outboarded in each, but by less than 1%.
09 was terrible , with a -3% differential.
His first 5 years were all positive; +3, +4, +5, +4, and +6.
His final year at SIU was negative by less than 1% as well.
The key to oscar's teams' success has always been winning eFG% and TO%.
In only league games, his teams were at least +4% in both categories his final year at SIU and his first 3 years at Illinois, which was also his best run of coaching.
After that the TO% differential slipped the most; 2 years were just under +2%, but the rest oscar's Illinois teams were negative in TO% differential. All but last year's team ended up with positive differentials in eFG%.
If this team can maintain our current Big 12 numbers in eFG% and TO% differential (+3% in both) we will still win 12 or 13 games.