K-State played 2 terrible basketball games last year against OU and the only thing we did remotely well was oboard in one of those games. In Norman we got dismantled and played one of our worst defensive games of the year, giving up nearly 1.2 points per possession and allowing OU to shoot 59%. We rebounded almost 60% of our misses, yet still lost by 9. OU had the worst eFG% defense last year in the league allowing 52.7%, yet we shot 46.9% and 44.1% against them in our 2 games. Just terrible performances and no reason for last year's team to get swept by a team that finished 15-16 and only won 5 league game.
That said, this year's OU team is improved, especially on the defensive end. They are a likely NCAA tournament team and should finish in the upper half of the league. However, OU is a poor defensive rebounding team, which should play into our strength. Offensively they don't shoot well (47%) and don't get to the FT line (33.7%), but are solid on the oboards and don't turn the ball over, rating 1 and 2 in those categories respectively in the Big 12 so far. Their best scorers are Pledger outside and Osby inside. OU doesn't shoot a lot of 3s, but Pledger is the guy that shoots them the most, 64% of his attempts are 3s (with only 4% at the rim). Osby gets to the rim far more than anyone else for OU, with 51% of his attempts. We all remember Pledger going off against us in the OOD last year, but he also had a very nice game against us in Norman and reserve post Fitzgerald scored 21. In fact, OU's forwards destroyed us in Norman last year combining to shoot 19-24 and score 49 points. Outside of Pledger and Osby, M'Baye is a nice rangy forward and Hield is a solid shooter and another 3PT threat, both averaging over 9 PPG. OU's pace is slightly faster than ours, but both teams want games in the mid-60s.
The key for OU in their best wins (WVU twice, aTm, OSU) was forcing all 3 opponents to shoot 45% or worse. K-State's offense has been a strength lately, shooting 49% or better in 6 of the last 7 games. K-State will have to prevent another Pledger repeat, but also win the battle of our defensive strengths against their offensive strengths, offensive boards and forcing TOs.
There should be plenty of motivation for K-State's players and I don't see a repeat of last year or this team looking ahead to Tuesday. I see the Cats continuing their solid shooting while holding down a solid OU team.
Cats 69
OU 62
