Author Topic: 2013 Season Big 12 Efficiency and Four Factors (regular season adv stats) (Read 24360 times)

kso_FAN · « **Reply #25 on:** January 21, 2013, 08:34:50 AM »

Quote from: sys on January 20, 2013, 11:18:22 PM

Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 20, 2013, 01:49:29 PM
Meh, West Virginia is good enough to play a lot of teams close unless Bob loses them. Look at their Eff Dif, its not like anyone (in the Big 12) is blowing them out.

i'm looking at the adv stats, _fan (the ones in this thread). wvu's efficiency diffs included.

those stats indicate fairly clearly (although the small sample size makes conclusions iffy), that the big 12 has six good to decent teams, all of which are fairly even, and four teams that are significantly worse. if your point is just that wvu is closer to the decent teams than it is to tcu, fine. point taken. but if your point is that kstate's 4-0 record is more predictive of their quality of play than their 0.10 efficiency diff because wvu is better than tcu, then sorry, point refused.

Yeah, there is a clear separation and WVU is definitely in the bottom 4, but they and UT are closer to the top 6 than TCU/Tech which are just awful teams. I meant nothing predictive though.

sekpoke · « **Reply #26 on:** January 21, 2013, 12:38:13 PM »

Great stuff _Fan. As an OSU fan I find it hard to believe that our opposition's OR% is that low. Of course we have played to of the worst teams in the league.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #27 on:** January 24, 2013, 08:23:26 AM »

Mid-week update.

pissclams · « **Reply #28 on:** January 24, 2013, 08:26:31 AM »

ISU is terrible

kso_FAN · « **Reply #29 on:** January 24, 2013, 08:30:50 AM »

Quote from: pissclams on January 24, 2013, 08:26:31 AM

ISU is terrible

I wouldn't go so far as to say terrible, but if we want to separate and make a run for the Top 2, then we should win at Ames. I like our style against them since we still like to ugly-up the game. Tech made it really ugly and won with a .84 PPP. That said, ISU has been really good in Ames lately.

pissclams · « **Reply #30 on:** January 24, 2013, 09:11:15 AM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 24, 2013, 08:30:50 AM

Quote from: pissclams on January 24, 2013, 08:26:31 AM
ISU is terrible

I wouldn't go so far as to say terrible, but if we want to separate and make a run for the Top 2, then we should win at Ames. I like our style against them since we still like to ugly-up the game. Tech made it really ugly and won with a .84 PPP. That said, ISU has been really good in Ames lately.

i'm just continuing my anti-ISU theme from earlier in the season. they aren't terrible, they just aren't a good enough team to overcome those nights when the 3pt shot isn't falling for them. some teams, like k-state, can get past bad shooting. look at their 3pt percentages in their loses- it's bad, in the ~mid 20% range. i have begun to wonder about how good of a coach that hoiberg is/is going to be. they can't expect to be anything more than middle of the pack playing how they're currently coached to play. this could just be a sign of him needing more time from a recruiting perspective to build his team though and he's playing this style because he has to..

kso_FAN · « **Reply #31 on:** January 24, 2013, 09:15:42 AM »

Quote from: pissclams on January 24, 2013, 09:11:15 AM

Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 24, 2013, 08:30:50 AM
Quote from: pissclams on January 24, 2013, 08:26:31 AM
ISU is terrible

I wouldn't go so far as to say terrible, but if we want to separate and make a run for the Top 2, then we should win at Ames. I like our style against them since we still like to ugly-up the game. Tech made it really ugly and won with a .84 PPP. That said, ISU has been really good in Ames lately.

i'm just continuing my anti-ISU theme from earlier in the season. they aren't terrible, they just aren't a good enough team to overcome those nights when the 3pt shot isn't falling for them. some teams, like k-state, can get past bad shooting. look at their 3pt percentages in their loses- it's bad, in the ~mid 20% range. i have begun to wonder about how good of a coach that hoiberg is/is going to be. they can't expect to be anything more than middle of the pack playing how they're currently coached to play. this could just be a sign of him needing more time from a recruiting perspective to build his team though and he's playing this style because he has to..

I agree with all of that. Plus he's had extremely good fortune with transfers, that strategy can go south if you rely on it too much. (Too be fair, Frank built a Elite 8 team largely because he got 2 really good transfers, but then Freddy...)

The biggest surprise for me in looking at the numbers is Baylor's defense. I know its only 5 games (over 1/4 of the season), but that's significant.

The match-up with ISU is very interesting; 2 of the best eFG% teams and TO% teams, but 2 of the worst rebounding and FT rate teams. Different styles, but similar profiles.

pissclams · « **Reply #32 on:** January 24, 2013, 09:21:33 AM »

i was surprised looking at ISU/KSU's similarities too. i think we win at saturday if we push possessions (something I'm not sure oscar likes to do) because we should be able to out-rebound them. they shoot and run the other way.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #33 on:** January 24, 2013, 02:54:12 PM »

Baylor's Def is a little surprising. In the non con they allowed 47.8 eFG, so being under 40 in conf play raises some eyebrows.

In league play, we have only allowed 53 3pt att (10.6/gm), easily best in the B12. And opp. are making 32.1%
Obviously, Isu wants to shoot the 3s, so this could be a big factor in determining the outcome this Saturday.

SwiftCat · « **Reply #34 on:** January 24, 2013, 03:57:19 PM »

Offensive rebounding percentage

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #35 on:** January 24, 2013, 07:03:11 PM »

It is a little troublesome about the OR numbers. The only Big12 game where we had 33.3% or above was KU.
It may be tough for us to acheive the 40% clip with us going with the smaller lineup, but we need to get to 35% for sure

Not putting the blame solely on him but Gip was ave 3.5 OR per game in non-con and now has only 6 OR in 5 Big 12 games

kso_FAN · « **Reply #36 on:** January 27, 2013, 08:26:43 AM »

sys · « **Reply #37 on:** January 27, 2013, 01:05:23 PM »

ouch.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #38 on:** January 27, 2013, 02:27:44 PM »

Ok, been a lot of negative talk with the recent 2 L's, so here is some positives---

We have shot 50% or better in 5 of 6 games
We have scored a 1.05 ppp or better in 5 of 6 gms
We have allowed 1.05 ppp or less in 5 of 6 gms
Our TO% has been under 19.0 in 5 of 6 gms
We have forced our opp into 20% or higher on TO in 4 of 6 gms
Our AS% has been 60 or better in 5 of 6 gms

Shot 50% or better on 2pt in 4 of 6 gms
Shot 33.3 or better on 3pt shots in 5 of 6 gms (and no gms below 30%)
Held our opp to 4 or less 3pt makes in 5 of the 6 gms

SleepFighter · « **Reply #39 on:** January 27, 2013, 05:19:30 PM »

kso_FAN · « **Reply #40 on:** January 28, 2013, 09:55:54 AM »

Something a little different; Big 12 sorted by the opponents' records in Big 12 games through 1/3 of the Big 12 season. Sort of a Big 12 SOS.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #41 on:** January 28, 2013, 02:04:11 PM »

Nice thing for us so far is Osu has had 3 chances to get decent road win and failed, and Isu has a bad road loss.

Baylor 5 wins.....those teams have combined for 6 wins.

Lucas Scoopsalot · « **Reply #42 on:** January 28, 2013, 09:08:40 PM »

what are we ranked in total Offensive Rebounds in the Big 12 now?

kso_FAN · « **Reply #43 on:** January 28, 2013, 09:10:31 PM »

Quote from: Lucas Scoopsalot on January 28, 2013, 09:08:40 PM

what are we ranked in total Offensive Rebounds in the Big 12 now?

We are last in offensive rebound percentage, which is the stat that really matters.

SwiftCat · « **Reply #44 on:** January 29, 2013, 03:20:58 PM »

Farewell JYC

kso_FAN · « **Reply #45 on:** January 31, 2013, 07:44:41 AM »

Midweek update!

mocat · « **Reply #46 on:** January 31, 2013, 08:55:24 AM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 31, 2013, 07:44:41 AM

Midweek update!

Looking at TCU's and KSU's FTR, it leads you to believe FTR is not as important as we think it is. But they are probably just outliers.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #47 on:** January 31, 2013, 09:08:01 AM »

Quote from: mocat on January 31, 2013, 08:55:24 AM

Looking at TCU's and KSU's FTR, it leads you to believe FTR is not as important as we think it is. But they are probably just outliers.

If shooting is up and TOs are down it takes on less of an impact. Again, the 4 factors are listed in importance to winning and losing.

The value of JYC stats was the trio of forced TOs, Oboarding, and getting to the FT line because we didn't shoot as well.

And I agree that there is a bit of an outlier quality to the stats so far; 7 games is a decent sample size, but its still going to be off some because of the variations of who teams have played so far.

The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep · « **Reply #48 on:** January 31, 2013, 12:14:41 PM »

As far as stats go, that was by far our best Big 12 game so far, right? I mean crap, we even shot FT's well.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #49 on:** January 31, 2013, 12:21:22 PM »

Quote from: Kelly Klarkson Kreep on January 31, 2013, 12:14:41 PM

As far as stats go, that was by far our best Big 12 game so far, right? I mean crap, we even shot FT's well.

Yes, it was our best game for both offensive and defensive efficiency. A .40 differential between offensive and defensive efficiency is a destruction.