Predict a score using ORCHID

[CHONGS]

I posted this before, but I think it should be its own thread:



Just pick your teams and get a score! This uses stats up through Oct 27th. 

[8manpick]

Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 30

[SwiftCat]

Alabama, Notre Dame, Oregon

 

[Stevesie60]

Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 30

[CHONGS]

Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 30

The game is at home IS IT NOT? (user error)

[8manpick]

Touché.  Still, I think the chances of a tie in Stillwater are slim.  So you set home and away difference to be +3 points for home team and -3 for away?

[Stevesie60]

Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 30

The game is at home IS IT NOT? (user error)

I'm still not convinced. Does this take into account that OSU hasn't played too tough of schedule yet? I mean, they lost to Texas (kind of). And Texas is pretty awful.

[CHONGS]

Touché.  Still, I think the chances of a tie in Stillwater are slim.  So you set home and away difference to be +3 points for home team and -3 for away?

I am also a bit puzzled by the predicted score, but I suspect it has to do with the high number of plays we allows on defense and the high efficiency OSU has on offense.  It looks like the close score is purely a function of them running so many more plays than us.  I think we will control the tempo a bit better personally, but I can't tweak the predictions just for K-State and the past scores have been pretty good.

I account for home field in a very rudimentary way (I don't have enough data to really correlate a home field advantage for each team):  visitor -1 home team +2.

[CHONGS]

Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 30

The game is at home IS IT NOT? (user error)

I'm still not convinced. Does this take into account that OSU hasn't played too tough of schedule yet? I mean, they lost to Texas (kind of). And Texas is pretty awful.

yes it takes their schedule into account.  but texas isn't as awful in ORCHID as you think.  OSU has lost two games yes, but they appear to be a very schizophrenic team.  Plus there is only so much I can do to correct for the absolute pounding they have put to their cupcakes if I apply the same standards to every team.


2    KansasSt.    0.71    0.26

19    OklahomaSt.    0.53    0.26

33    Texas    0.57    0.41

[Stevesie60]

I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.

[CHONGS]

I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.

the number of offensive plays they would run is the difference

[Stevesie60]

I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.

the number of offensive plays they would run is the difference

I hate the ORCHID.

[j-dub]

I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.

the number of offensive plays they would run is the difference

I hate the ORCHID.

yeah. seems like a real dumbass

[CHONGS]

I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.

btw, it doesn't predict a tie on a neutral site, it has winning by 3.

[_33]

Hope snyds pins the ORCHID up on the bulletin board.

[MixBerryCrunch]

Why do you hate the Cats, Chingon? 

[CHONGS]

Hope snyds pins the ORCHID up on the bulletin board.

maybe that's my plan (!?)

[WillieWatanabe]

I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.

the number of offensive plays they would run is the difference

I hate the ORCHID.

i enjoyed this exchange.

[CHONGS]

Touché.  Still, I think the chances of a tie in Stillwater are slim.  So you set home and away difference to be +3 points for home team and -3 for away?

I am also a bit puzzled by the predicted score, but I suspect it has to do with the high number of plays we allows on defense and the high efficiency OSU has on offense.  It looks like the close score is purely a function of them running so many more plays than us.  I think we will control the tempo a bit better personally, but I can't tweak the predictions just for K-State and the past scores have been pretty good.

I account for home field in a very rudimentary way (I don't have enough data to really correlate a home field advantage for each team):  visitor -1 home team +2.

I found a problem with my approach.  Unlike basketball I don't think tempos should have a multiplying effect.  This was giving teams with very high offensive tempos a lot more plays against us then they should (because we allow teams on average more plays than the nat'l average).  I have fixed it and the predictions seem more reasonable to me now (for the wonks, I not using a geometric mean anymore for pace).

[WildcatPower]

I think K-State is going to be very fired up because they were so close knocking off Oklahoma State last year. They'll want some revenge because had they beat Oklahoma State, K-State could had won the conference last year.

If there is a statement game, this is it.

[kim carnes]

I think K-State is going to be very fired up because they were so close knocking off Oklahoma State last year. They'll want some revenge because had they beat Oklahoma State, K-State could had won the conference last year.

If there is a statement game, this is it.

hmm.... great insight.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I think K-State is going to be very fired up because they were so close knocking off Oklahoma State last year. They'll want some revenge because had they beat Oklahoma State, K-State could had won the conference last year.

If there is a statement game, this is it.

Does ORCHID account for this?

[GoodForAnother]

ORCHID is making a comeback!

Kansas State: 32
Oklahoma State: 23

[Winters]

I think K-State is going to be very fired up because they were so close knocking off Oklahoma State last year. They'll want some revenge because had they beat Oklahoma State, K-State could had won the conference last year.

If there is a statement game, this is it.

hmm.... great insight.

We should be greatful we don't have to pay for that kind of stuff. We are so lucky.

[SwiftCat]

Alabama, Notre Dame, Oregon

 

With fixed tempo