Master KSU Butthurt About Being Passed Over Eventually Thread

[SleepFighter]

Do we (the public) really not know how the computers calculate their results?

No we don't know how they get their results. Most (all?) of them claim that their version of the RPI is proprietary.

[steve dave]

if their formulas were public then we could have the possible results of the computers laid out by who beats who in all the games.

[TheHamburglar]

Do we (the public) really not know how the computers calculate their results?

No we don't know how they get their results. Most (all?) of them claim that their version of the RPI is proprietary.

One is public.  I think its the Colley Matrix.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Maybe we should be sending bags of money to all of these computer dudes to just make us #1 on all their computer models and Oregon #10.

[eastcat]

So basically ND losing does nothing in the human polls and only hurts us in the computer polls

The computer hit by a ND loss is more instant, but Oregon is GOING to leap ND in the computers over the next 3 weeks, even if they both win out...ND's schedule is dogshit...The meat of Oregons schedule is still up ahead

I don't see this happening. ND is just too far ahead of Oregon in the computers for the Ducks to catch up without a ND loss. Oregon's schedule is nowhere near as tough as people are making it out to be.

Don't count out Oregon State quite yet. If they win their next 2, UO/OSU will be for the North title. Corvallis is a tough place to play and I've seen a lot worse Beaver teams beat quality Oregon teams before

No it's not, at least in the last 10 years. I was just there, no hope. Most OSU students are duck fans.

[Rage Against the McKee]

So basically ND losing does nothing in the human polls and only hurts us in the computer polls

The computer hit by a ND loss is more instant, but Oregon is GOING to leap ND in the computers over the next 3 weeks, even if they both win out...ND's schedule is dogshit...The meat of Oregons schedule is still up ahead

I don't see this happening. ND is just too far ahead of Oregon in the computers for the Ducks to catch up without a ND loss. Oregon's schedule is nowhere near as tough as people are making it out to be.

Don't count out Oregon State quite yet. If they win their next 2, UO/OSU will be for the North title. Corvallis is a tough place to play and I've seen a lot worse Beaver teams beat quality Oregon teams before

No it's not, at least in the last 10 years. I was just there, no hope. Most OSU students are duck fans.

Maybe they are just really good at tsc and will root for the beavers with the Pac 12 North and a shot at a Rose Bowl berth on the line.

[EllRobersonisInnocent]

So basically ND losing does nothing in the human polls and only hurts us in the computer polls

The computer hit by a ND loss is more instant, but Oregon is GOING to leap ND in the computers over the next 3 weeks, even if they both win out...ND's schedule is dogshit...The meat of Oregons schedule is still up ahead

I don't see this happening. ND is just too far ahead of Oregon in the computers for the Ducks to catch up without a ND loss. Oregon's schedule is nowhere near as tough as people are making it out to be.

Don't count out Oregon State quite yet. If they win their next 2, UO/OSU will be for the North title. Corvallis is a tough place to play and I've seen a lot worse Beaver teams beat quality Oregon teams before

No it's not, at least in the last 10 years. I was just there, no hope. Most OSU students are duck fans.

They're 4 points from being undefeated and a top 8 team.  They give up 18 ppg and throw for over 300 ypg. No one thought ISU had a chance against the Pokes last year, anything can happen in college sports.

[mocat]

if their formulas were public then we could have the possible results of the computers laid out by who beats who in all the games.

which would be amazing

how would you like a weekly excel chart of exactly who to root for

[EMAWesome]

This may be naive, or seen through Purple glasses, but I think Stanford has a shot against Oregon...they area toughnosed team, I think they can come out & punch Oregon in the mouth, and they are also playing for a bid in the P12CC game.

Of course, I also think Johnny Football is gonna do us a solid & beat 'Bama this week soooo.....

[mocat]

This may be naive, or seen through Purple glasses, but I think Stanford has a shot against Oregon...they area toughnosed team, I think they can come out & punch Oregon in the mouth, and they are also playing for a bid in the P12CC game.

Of course, I also think Johnny Football is gonna do us a solid & beat 'Bama this week soooo.....

Would you give Iowa State's defense a chance vs Oregon?

[chum1]

This may be naive, or seen through Purple glasses, but I think Stanford has a shot against Oregon...they area toughnosed team, I think they can come out & punch Oregon in the mouth, and they are also playing for a bid in the P12CC game.

Of course, I also think Johnny Football is gonna do us a solid & beat 'Bama this week soooo.....

Thinking that any upset will happen is less crazy than think that none will.

[Skipper44]

if their formulas were public then we could have the possible results of the computers laid out by who beats who in all the games.

which would be amazing

how would you like a weekly excel chart of exactly who to root for

or an app that gave you real time updates as games are ongoing   

[Rage Against the McKee]

This may be naive, or seen through Purple glasses, but I think Stanford has a shot against Oregon...they area toughnosed team, I think they can come out & punch Oregon in the mouth, and they are also playing for a bid in the P12CC game.

Of course, I also think Johnny Football is gonna do us a solid & beat 'Bama this week soooo.....

Would you give Iowa State's defense a chance vs Oregon?

I would have when all of their linebackers were healthy. ISU wouldn't be able to score enough points, though, and even if ISU were able to be in a position to win late, Rhodes would probably screw it up in the end with a fake field goal or something.

[MadCat]

Maybe we should be sending bags of money to all of these computer dudes to just make us #1 on all their computer models and Oregon #10.

Yes, this.  Totally objective. 

[That_Guy]

Isn't the Oregon/Oregon State game usually pretty close? The mere glimpses of it that I have caught in the past have always been close games.

[BIG APPLE CAT]

Guise, I've spent all morning trying to do science and I'd like to offer a few friendly reminders as it pertains to the 3 areas in which our rankings are influenced:
Currently, our lead over Oregon sits at 0.0152 points. 
First, lets look at a couple "worst case scenarios", based on the assumption that Bama, K State, and Oregon win out:
Bama continues to keep all 59 first place votes in the Coaches poll, Oregon gets all the 2nd place votes, and K State gets all the 3rd place votes.  Our margin has shrunk from 0.0152 to 0.0126.  In the Harris poll, Oregon improves to a unanimous 2nd, with K State a unanimous 3rd.  Our margin shrinks from 0.0126 to 0.0107.
If Notre Dame LOSES, Oregon automatically gains 4 spots in the computer polls.  Depending on which of our polls get thrown out for being the highest and the lowest, the Quatz either gain 2 or 4 spots in the computer polls.  Playing debil's advocate, this means Oregon gains a net 2 spots in the computers over us, cutting our margin from .0107 to .0041.

In summation, a change in a team's single computer ranking carries 10x the points as a voter deciding to vote State #2 Ore #3.  We do not have much more potential to improve in the computers...best case scenario we can only gain 6 points opposed to Oregon having the potential to gain 15.  Realistically, as long as Bama stays #1, (and if they dont then that means they lost so we have nothing to worry about anyway) there will be little fluxuation with us and Oregon in the human polls, and the change will be mostly negligible.  Inevitably, Oregon is going to gain ground in the computers provided they keep winning.  How much is impossible to say since most of the computers do not show their work for how they arrived as their answer, and it's very difficult to tell how close Oregon is to jumping the team above them in each of the respective computers. 
The ultimate conclusion here is that we seriously need the ND and FLA to continue to keep a wedge between us and Oregon.  Provided all 3 teams keep winning, the human polls will make little difference unless everyone decides to be dickholes and rank either us or Oregon completely unfairly.

Can you explain this with charts and graphics?  Most people are visual learners.

Good call:
Harris Voter who changed their mind and put KSU 2 ORE 3: 
Coach who changed their mind and put KSU 2 ORE 3: 
Computer (pick one, Sagarin for example) who put us from 3 to 2: 

The only problem is not knowing how the computers will change, or how close they are to changing.  For what it's worth, most of them have stayed pretty consistent over the last 3 weeks although it doesn't leave K State much room to improve.  We know what the chances are of voters changing their minds...it happens all the time.  Cats picked up 40 extra votes beating TT, but only 4 beating OSU.  Colley Matrix is the only one that publishes and explains/defends its formulas, but it's a complicated set of formulae and matricies.  CM is kind enough to let you see what would happen if you could add a win to your team's record, which helps somewhat.  Since it's an iterative process you have to know what happened in ALL of college football to know what they new ranking will be, but as an example just looking at things in a vacuume, Cats beating TCU helps our CM rating more than ORE beatint CAL.

[EMAWesome]

Guise, I've spent all morning trying to do science and I'd like to offer a few friendly reminders as it pertains to the 3 areas in which our rankings are influenced:
Currently, our lead over Oregon sits at 0.0152 points. 
First, lets look at a couple "worst case scenarios", based on the assumption that Bama, K State, and Oregon win out:
Bama continues to keep all 59 first place votes in the Coaches poll, Oregon gets all the 2nd place votes, and K State gets all the 3rd place votes.  Our margin has shrunk from 0.0152 to 0.0126.  In the Harris poll, Oregon improves to a unanimous 2nd, with K State a unanimous 3rd.  Our margin shrinks from 0.0126 to 0.0107.
If Notre Dame LOSES, Oregon automatically gains 4 spots in the computer polls.  Depending on which of our polls get thrown out for being the highest and the lowest, the Quatz either gain 2 or 4 spots in the computer polls.  Playing debil's advocate, this means Oregon gains a net 2 spots in the computers over us, cutting our margin from .0107 to .0041.

In summation, a change in a team's single computer ranking carries 10x the points as a voter deciding to vote State #2 Ore #3.  We do not have much more potential to improve in the computers...best case scenario we can only gain 6 points opposed to Oregon having the potential to gain 15.  Realistically, as long as Bama stays #1, (and if they dont then that means they lost so we have nothing to worry about anyway) there will be little fluxuation with us and Oregon in the human polls, and the change will be mostly negligible.  Inevitably, Oregon is going to gain ground in the computers provided they keep winning.  How much is impossible to say since most of the computers do not show their work for how they arrived as their answer, and it's very difficult to tell how close Oregon is to jumping the team above them in each of the respective computers. 
The ultimate conclusion here is that we seriously need the ND and FLA to continue to keep a wedge between us and Oregon.  Provided all 3 teams keep winning, the human polls will make little difference unless everyone decides to be dickholes and rank either us or Oregon completely unfairly.

Can you explain this with charts and graphics?  Most people are visual learners.

Good call:
Harris Voter who changed their mind and put KSU 2 ORE 3: 
Coach who changed their mind and put KSU 2 ORE 3: 
Computer (pick one, Sagarin for example) who put us from 3 to 2: 

The only problem is not knowing how the computers will change, or how close they are to changing.  For what it's worth, most of them have stayed pretty consistent over the last 3 weeks although it doesn't leave K State much room to improve.  We know what the chances are of voters changing their minds...it happens all the time.  Cats picked up 40 extra votes beating TT, but only 4 beating OSU.  Colley Matrix is the only one that publishes and explains/defends its formulas, but it's a complicated set of formulae and matricies.  CM is kind enough to let you see what would happen if you could add a win to your team's record, which helps somewhat.  Since it's an iterative process you have to know what happened in ALL of college football to know what they new ranking will be, but as an example just looking at things in a vacuume, Cats beating TCU helps our CM rating more than ORE beatint CAL.

So, I thought the Human polls were 2/3 of the vote...shouldn't they get more thumbs?

[BIG APPLE CAT]

Guise, I've spent all morning trying to do science and I'd like to offer a few friendly reminders as it pertains to the 3 areas in which our rankings are influenced:
Currently, our lead over Oregon sits at 0.0152 points. 
First, lets look at a couple "worst case scenarios", based on the assumption that Bama, K State, and Oregon win out:
Bama continues to keep all 59 first place votes in the Coaches poll, Oregon gets all the 2nd place votes, and K State gets all the 3rd place votes.  Our margin has shrunk from 0.0152 to 0.0126.  In the Harris poll, Oregon improves to a unanimous 2nd, with K State a unanimous 3rd.  Our margin shrinks from 0.0126 to 0.0107.
If Notre Dame LOSES, Oregon automatically gains 4 spots in the computer polls.  Depending on which of our polls get thrown out for being the highest and the lowest, the Quatz either gain 2 or 4 spots in the computer polls.  Playing debil's advocate, this means Oregon gains a net 2 spots in the computers over us, cutting our margin from .0107 to .0041.

In summation, a change in a team's single computer ranking carries 10x the points as a voter deciding to vote State #2 Ore #3.  We do not have much more potential to improve in the computers...best case scenario we can only gain 6 points opposed to Oregon having the potential to gain 15.  Realistically, as long as Bama stays #1, (and if they dont then that means they lost so we have nothing to worry about anyway) there will be little fluxuation with us and Oregon in the human polls, and the change will be mostly negligible.  Inevitably, Oregon is going to gain ground in the computers provided they keep winning.  How much is impossible to say since most of the computers do not show their work for how they arrived as their answer, and it's very difficult to tell how close Oregon is to jumping the team above them in each of the respective computers. 
The ultimate conclusion here is that we seriously need the ND and FLA to continue to keep a wedge between us and Oregon.  Provided all 3 teams keep winning, the human polls will make little difference unless everyone decides to be dickholes and rank either us or Oregon completely unfairly.

Can you explain this with charts and graphics?  Most people are visual learners.

Good call:
Harris Voter who changed their mind and put KSU 2 ORE 3: 
Coach who changed their mind and put KSU 2 ORE 3: 
Computer (pick one, Sagarin for example) who put us from 3 to 2: 

The only problem is not knowing how the computers will change, or how close they are to changing.  For what it's worth, most of them have stayed pretty consistent over the last 3 weeks although it doesn't leave K State much room to improve.  We know what the chances are of voters changing their minds...it happens all the time.  Cats picked up 40 extra votes beating TT, but only 4 beating OSU.  Colley Matrix is the only one that publishes and explains/defends its formulas, but it's a complicated set of formulae and matricies.  CM is kind enough to let you see what would happen if you could add a win to your team's record, which helps somewhat.  Since it's an iterative process you have to know what happened in ALL of college football to know what they new ranking will be, but as an example just looking at things in a vacuume, Cats beating TCU helps our CM rating more than ORE beatint CAL.

So, I thought the Human polls were 2/3 of the vote...shouldn't they get more thumbs?

not on a person by person basis. Of the 59 and 115 voters in the Coaches/Harris polls, it would take 16 and 33 voters changing their vote as described to have the same impact of us improving 1 spot in a computer poll (provided that computer poll doesn't become the "high" or "low" and get thrown out).

[mocat]

there are many more voters than computers

59 coaches

115 members of Harris poll

6 computers (only 4 count)

[BIG APPLE CAT]

what complicates it more is that improving in human vs computer polls is not counted equally.  If we gain 40 points in the coaches poll, that automatically translates to 40x0.0002 = +0.0080 in our BCS ranking.  Although lets say we go from 318.7 to 324.6 in the Billingsley Poll, well if last week 318.7 was good for 3rd place and this week 324.6 drops us to 4th, then even though we gained points in that poll, we still drop a spot in the computers and thus our BCS ranking loses 0.0033 pts.

[Stevesie60]

This may be naive, or seen through Purple glasses, but I think Stanford has a shot against Oregon...they area toughnosed team, I think they can come out & punch Oregon in the mouth, and they are also playing for a bid in the P12CC game.

Of course, I also think Johnny Football is gonna do us a solid & beat 'Bama this week soooo.....

Thinking that any upset will happen is less crazy than think that none will.

[stunted]

30-35% chance Bama and Oregon go undefeated.  Since nobody can figure out the bcs its safe to assume it's a toss up whether or not Oregon passes us.  Altogether if KSU goes undefeated, 80% chance we are in.

[michigancat]

I did a little math:

Assuming ND loses and falls behind Oregon, we gain in two polls, but Oregon gains in six. If both KSU and Oregon pass ND in all polls (and no other teams move), our computer ranking would go from .940 to .960, while Oregon's would go from .850 to .890. That would give Oregon a .0048 point lead over us, assuming the poll gap stays consistent. .0048 BCS points translates into approximately 7 coaches poll points OR 14 Harris Poll points that we would need to close the gap.

What happens to Florida is almost as important as ND, really.

[Stevesie60]

30-35% chance Bama and Oregon go undefeated.  Since nobody can figure out the bcs its safe to assume it's a toss up whether or not Oregon passes us.  Altogether if KSU goes undefeated, 80% chance we are in.

80%. Not good enough.

[OK_Cat]

probably ok_luke or luke_cat

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/20853257

hint:  we're way ahead