This seems like as good of a place as any for this...
Looked at a bunch of stuff this morning. It is an interesting game, and while I'd wish for something like Tech did to them in Lubbock, I think that is doubtful. I also think a shootout quite like Baylor is unlikely. The game that is most likely from this season is Texas, though Texas came out on the wrong end of that one, but I think we're a much better team than Texas.
WVU has the ability to limit our running game, but they likely haven't seen a rush offense quite like ours. Granted, we are coming off our worst rushing performance in YPC of the season. We'll have to throw it some to win, and we should have success. K-State has shown plenty of ability to throw the ball, but we simply don't throw it much. Consider that WVU has throws the ball 45 times per game and we throw it 20. However, we are 2nd in the league in YPA at 9.1 and only have 2 INTs on the year. While WVU has a solid run defense and gives up only 3.26 YPC, the thing that stands out is they have given up a league worst 12 rushing TDs They also have allowed conversions on half their 3rd downs and opponents score TDs 70% of the time when they reach the endzone, allowing 21 TDs in 30 RZ opportunities. Finally, WVU's pass defense has been talked about plenty, but the 9.6 YPA they give up is not just last in the Big 12, its 122nd out of 124 teams in the nation. Plus WVU has a starting corner out of the game. K-State made a real attempt to throw more last week, calling 33 pass plays compared to 40 runs, 9 of those just ended up bring runs because of scrambles/sacks. I'd expect we'll see something similar this week, with a mix of drop back throws with play action, plus more use of empty formations, similar to what we saw against OU. Snyder has been known to open up the offense a little bit more when he knows we need to score, the OSU game last year being a great example. In that game we threw the ball 39 times, by far our most attempts on the year. We also ran it 51 times though for a ridiculous 90 total snaps. Offensively I feel good about what we can do in Morgantown, it will end up being about avoiding the silly mistakes (penalties, turnovers, settling for FGs).
Defensively we've seen offenses like WVU's before. They are very good, but let's consider that last year we faced an OSU team that averaged 7.2 YPP offensively and had one game under 6.0 YPP all season. They destroyed us for 9.1 YPP. We also saw Baylor who averaged 7.6 YPP and had no games below 6.0 YPP. aTm, MU, and OU all averaged over 6.0 YPP as well. This year's WVU averages a very good 6.91, but 3 of their last 4 games they've been below 6.0 YPP. Their .58 PPP is very good, OSU and BU were both more efficient for the season last year. Now, none of that is a guarantee that we'll stop them, but the point is facing a high powered offense is not new to this team, and neither is a tough road venue as the Cats have already won at Norman and Ames. The keys will be forcing TOs and forcing FGs, because WV will have some success moving the ball. The issue here is that WVU has been excellent in both categories, scoring TDs nearly 80% of the time in the redzone and only given up 3 TOs total on the year, including just 1 INT. I'm sure the gameplan will be to limit their running game, and its hard to anticipate what we'll get. WVU was solid running against Texas but below 4.0 YPC against Tech and awful against Maryland. Smith looked unstoppable in their first 4 games, but the last two have both been under 8.0 YPA and under 60% completions against Tech. However, you've got to give a lot of respect to his 26:1 TD:INT ratio. K-State will be looking to reverse trends WVU has had all year in TOs and 3rd down/RZ conversions and both of those will be a challenge. K-State will likely have to be successful in at least one area.
Special teams has always been a staple for Snyder's teams, and this game could be decided here. K-State has a slight very slight advantage in KO returns and coverage, but the real area that K-State could exploit is punt returns. Not only is WVU last in the Big 12 in punt returns and punting (only 37.5 YPP), they are 2nd to last in punt return coverage. K-State is first in punt returns and in punt return coverage. In kicking K-State is 7/8 and WVU is 3/5. If K-State can manage to force some punts, they could turn field position or score with that unit.
The breakdown seems simple enough; K-State's offense and special teams have advantages, while WVU's offense has the advantage over K-State. Generally if you can win 2 of the 3 phases you'll win the game, unless we have an awful defensive performance like OU/OSU from last year. I don't see that happening. That said, I think this will be a tight game, but the Cats will turn it in the 4th quarter with a combination of ball control offense and a big special teams play.
Cats 45 - Eers 37
